Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
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Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#2> The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.
Every time I read one of Krugman's technology-related articles, he always seems to get it so wrong. After this terrible prediction, I wonder why he keeps bothering.
Also, he's nothing but a political hack these days.
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#3> By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.
Sort of dwarfs any validity in the article.
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#4> By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. Sort of dwarfs any validity in the article.
Pretty sure thats the point of the HN post.
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#5While this is highly embarrassing for Krugman (even if he will never admit it!), he is far from the only person who has fallen for this: Expertise in one area does NOT make you an expert in all.
This year especially should drive that point home. It's best to only make bold statements when you are sure, and when you do so, put your money where your mouth is ("Skin in the game", as Nassim Taleb says). And most definitely do not become a paid opinion writer, or even bother taking any of their pontificating seriously.
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#6Also "Why the web won't be a nirvana" http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirva...
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#7While this is highly embarrassing for Krugman (even if he will never admit it!), he is far from the only person who has fallen for this: Expertise in one area does NOT make you an expert in all. This year especially should drive that point home. It's best to only make bold statements when you are sure, and when you do so, put your money where your mouth is ("Skin in the game", as Nassim Taleb says). And most definite…
I think he does admit his mistakes: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/mistakes/
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#8[deleted]
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#9While he is wrong about the impact of the internet economically. He isn't wrong that technology progress has been disappointing. When you grow up believing you will be driving flying cars and seeing robots help you around the house, how else are you supposed to feel? It is only now that computing power has started to enable old AI techniques such as neural nets, which were once impractical are now starting to be reasonable.
I am also disappointed in how closed and centralized the applications that run on the internet have become since the internet was privatized. Where we used to have decentralized systems in the 80s to late 90s, we now have huge star (wheel and spoke) networks.
The days you get your internet from the weird guy down the street running a rack of servers in his closet are long gone.
We have also re-created old medium and I seriously doubt people like Alan Kay are impressed with that. We have invented the most important tool in the history of humanity and it's being used by billions of people to look at Facebook instead of say, solving real problems like climate change. As Alan Kay said "The computer revolution hasn't happened yet".
Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)
#10> The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. Every time I read on…
Krugman often reviews his past predictions and admits when he is wrong:
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/31524-ten-years-later-...