Optimism
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Optimism
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Re: Optimism
#2Great and honest post. I hope people pay more attention to these topics that apparently are not tech-centric, but imho it's where the tech stuff actually comes forth.
Although I can't say that I agree with all, I can surely identify with the attempt to systematize our way of though, and the division of personal/impersonal, general/speficif and permanent/impermanent is interesting.
On a (not so quite) side note, one thing that comes to mind when reading this is that meditation can be used as an efficient way of controlling your thoughts, to the point where you can learn to avoid the pitfalls that the author mentions (ex: taking criticism to heart, pessimisn, etc).
Re: Optimism
#3Beautiful.
Re: Optimism
#4Certainly, an unbiased symmetrical appraisal should be the goal? If the premise is that the effects upon your past success are equally likely to be general or specific regardless of their sign, and any asymmetry between your appraisal of the specificity between positive and negative effects indicates bias, isn't either bias problematic?
All the worst initiatives that have crashed and burned around me in my career, smoldering craters, were built and planned by people who thought they were generally competent and that things would generally be fine, we can bet big on this one. All their past failures, ruins crumbled under the pressure of unmanaged complexity or debris scattered by some unforeseen risk, were minor specifics, won't happen this time.
Re: Optimism
#5Certainly, an unbiased symmetrical appraisal should be the goal? If the premise is that the effects upon your past success are equally likely to be general or specific regardless of their sign, and any asymmetry between your appraisal of the specificity between positive and negative effects indicates bias, isn't either bias problematic? All the worst initiatives that have crashed and burned around me in my career, sm…
Problem is that it's very hard to get rid of your own bias.
Re: Optimism
#6Let me give an optimistic feedback because Reginald's work is well worth it. Reg's essay and his combinator book have had a huge influence on my career and my way of thinking as a programmer. I really recommend everyone here to take a look at the combinator book at http://combinators.info
As to the point of the presentation, it's an interesting view of things. Making a note of my explanations explanations is something I should do. Introspective exercises like this can sometimes lead to surprising discoveries.
Re: Optimism
#7I learned everything I need to know about optimism from Hope: A Tragedy by Shalom Auslander when it explains why optimists are dangerous.
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Optimist, said Professor Jove. Hitler was the most unabashed doe-eyed optimist of the last hundred years. That’s why he was the biggest monster. Have you ever heard of anything as outrageously hopeful as the Final Solution? Not just that there could be a solution — to anything, mind you, while we have yet to cure the common cold — but a final one, no less! Full of hope, the Führer was. A dreamer! A romantic, even, yes? If I just kill this one, gas that one, everything will be okay. I tell you this with absolute certainty: every morning, Adolf Hitler woke up, made himself a cup of coffee, and asked himself how to make the world a better place. We all know his answer, but the answer isn’t nearly as important as the question. The only thing more naively hopeful than the Final Solution is the ludicrous dictum to which it gave birth: Never Again. How many times since Never Again has it happened again? Three? Four? That we know of, mind you. Mao? Optimist. Stalin? Optimist. Pol Pot? Optimist. Here’s a good rule for life, Kugel, no matter where you happen to live or when you happen to be born: when someone rises up and promises that things are going to be better, run. Hide. Pessimists don’t build gas chambers.
Re: Optimism
#8Certainly, an unbiased symmetrical appraisal should be the goal? If the premise is that the effects upon your past success are equally likely to be general or specific regardless of their sign, and any asymmetry between your appraisal of the specificity between positive and negative effects indicates bias, isn't either bias problematic? All the worst initiatives that have crashed and burned around me in my career, sm…
I think based on what the post was saying that an optimistic attitude doesn't necessarily equate to ignoring reality. To me, the post was more about opinion and self-esteem than facts about a project. It sounds like whatever things have crashed and burned around you in your career were led by people who superimposed their self-esteem onto fact-based decisions.
Re: Optimism
#9Author here. Ask Me Anything.
Re: Optimism
#10Make America Great Again!