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The end of sprawl

washingtonpost.com

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Re: The end of sprawl

#2
I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

Re: The end of sprawl

#3

I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

Long commutes always suck, and having something else drive for you won't make that change.

Parking as a non-issue is an argument for denser and tighter organization of cities instead of sprawl.

Self-driving taxis and buses are another reason to prefer living in the city, least of all because they are cheaper in a denser area.

Re: The end of sprawl

#4

I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

I don't think the move from the suburbs to the city is a technology issue. There are certainly trade-offs to both of them.

The reason a lot of people (especially young people) have been flocking to walkable cities has a lot more to do with self-identity and lifestyle choices than with just merely commuting time. No self-driving card will change that.

Keep in mind that the opposite is also true. Self-driving cars make city-living (where owning a car is unaffordable and unpractical) much easier, since it increases the access to cars.

Re: The end of sprawl

#5

I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

Long commutes? Once vehicles are self-driving, there will be whole swaths of the population who will simply live in their cars and not have another home. Imagine reddit's "vandwellers" times ten.

Then there will be political fights over city congestion taxes and other ways of extracting money from people who do that.

Interesting times...

Re: The end of sprawl

#6

I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

Unless the self driving cars can make an hour commute be half an hour or less, they'll still suck. All you gain is the ability to read, eat, play games, or even sleep during the commute and no one will be comfortable doing that for a few years.

Re: The end of sprawl

#7
Sprawl will continue as countries become urbanized. Africa, South Asia, etc. Sprawl will ebb once pop stabilizes in those countries.

As the US pop has stabilized (except addition by immigrants) we don't expect more sprawl.

Re: The end of sprawl

#8
I support ending sprawl, but there are factors that drive people to it. (Perceived or real)

* Quality of education for their children.

* Privacy (space/sound insulation)

* Nature (if you move far enough out, then wonder why wildlife 'invades')

* Investment (housing shouldn't be, but it is; also rent is too high)

Re: The end of sprawl

#9

I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

Long commutes always suck, and having something else drive for you won't make that change. Parking as a non-issue is an argument for denser and tighter organization of cities instead of sprawl. Self-driving taxis and buses are another reason to prefer living in the city, least of all because they are cheaper in a denser area.

A long commute in a self-driving car, even more than in a comfortable train, can be a part of your work day, or even your leisure. Commute while driving is manual labor, preventing any meaningful concentration, be it watching a movie or writing code.

Re: The end of sprawl

#10

I think sprawl will increase when self driving cars become a thing. Long commutes will be a lot more tolerable, parking a non issue, and the cost of owning a car could be reduced with self driving taxis or busses.

I don't think the move from the suburbs to the city is a technology issue. There are certainly trade-offs to both of them. The reason a lot of people (especially young people) have been flocking to walkable cities has a lot more to do with self-identity and lifestyle choices than with just merely commuting time. No self-driving card will change that. Keep in mind that the opposite is also true. Self-driving cars make…

>The reason a lot of people (especially young people) have been flocking to walkable cities has a lot more to do with self-identity and lifestyle choices than with just merely commuting time.

These are drivers to be sure, but the biggest is the network effects of being in a denser metro. The more people there are in a given area, the more human resources: job options, entertainment options, dating options, knowledge-sharing (the form that can only be done via meeting people in person), collaboration, and other forms are human and knowledge-derived capital. It's easier to form a rock band or hire for a startup idea in NYC than it is Duluth, Minnesota where there are fewer musicians and programmers.

This is why rural areas, unless undergoing some sort of unique boom (e.g. the Bakken Formation or Athabascan Oil Sands) or hosting a college/university, sustain much older average populations. Unless one's career allows them to live/work remotely, it's often necessary to move to the city to pursue most career options.

Aside from the self-identity and lifestyle points you mention.

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