Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
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Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
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Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#2Baseball feels like a next step up. About 2,400 games a year. More games, data points.. more everything
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#3Baseball feels like a next step up. About 2,400 games a year. More games, data points.. more everything
More very old, very dangerous sharks swimming in the same pool. Betting to win long term is not something most people are mathematically or emotionally equipped to do and a toy demonstration showing a handful of results means very little.
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#4There is a TED-talk on this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66ko_cWSHBU
(The Math Behind Basketball's Wildest Moves)
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#5Vegas odds aren't even the most accurate odds to beat. I.e you can already beat Vegas odds by looking at odds pinnacle, 5 dimes, bet 188 and consider them the true odds. It's called arbitrage betting. If you have a model that can truly beat the market, then it is the players I mentioned that you want to beat.
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#6Vegas odds aren't even the most accurate odds to beat. I.e you can already beat Vegas odds by looking at odds pinnacle, 5 dimes, bet 188 and consider them the true odds. It's called arbitrage betting. If you have a model that can truly beat the market, then it is the players I mentioned that you want to beat.
Arbitrage betting is utilizing differences in money line payoffs to place two or more bets that cannot lose regardless of the result of the sporting event. These opportunities do exist, however sports books absolutely hate it and some of the offshore ones will either ban you from playing or in some cases simply refuse to pay off your bet.
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#7Vegas odds aren't even the most accurate odds to beat. I.e you can already beat Vegas odds by looking at odds pinnacle, 5 dimes, bet 188 and consider them the true odds. It's called arbitrage betting. If you have a model that can truly beat the market, then it is the players I mentioned that you want to beat.
Arbitrage betting is utilizing differences in money line payoffs to place two or more bets that cannot lose regardless of the result of the sporting event. These opportunities do exist, however sports books absolutely hate it and some of the offshore ones will either ban you from playing or in some cases simply refuse to pay off your bet.
You can do it with single bets to. If the following: bookie X offers you odds x, bookie Y offers you odds y, x > y, you are sure bookie Y is a better punter than bookie X ,then betting on odds x is a free bet which will generate profit in the long run.
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#8The well known bettors will place bets knowing others will emulate it, moving the odds in favor of their real bet they have yet to place. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the big Vegas books are in on it since they make their money long term on vig, and don't have to worry about short term losses (thus enjoying any increase in bets those schemes generate).
There is an older 60 minutes episode on Billy Walters that is a good watch for anyone interested in people trying to beat sports books.
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#9If you can reliably beat Vegas, why not put real money into it and make lots of money?
Re: Using machine learning to predict basketball scores
#10It's not clear from the article what the input data is. I had a look in the repo, it wasn't clear from that either. Is it the normal fare you'd expect?
I've heard of prop betting firms using stuff like "distance travelled by the away team" and other logical things like that.