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I resigned from Anthropic today

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Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#991

Post by walthamstow »

vidarh wrote: post #988
walthamstow wrote: post #827

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minor skirmishes are not war. China and India have border skirmishes with literal wooden sticks, neither side will use live ammo because they both have nukes.

Conveniently shifting to a different conflict, and ignoring that India and Pakistan have carried out missile strikes on each other, killed civilians, occupied territory.

Like I said, minor skirmishes. No war between India and Pakistan since they both got nukes in the 70s. Not bad for two states that have been hostile their entire existence.

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#992

Post by andai »

aogaili wrote: post #849
andai wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are LLMs about to be a god that will annihilate humanity? Or are they statistical parrots? Does a virus need to be a God? Replication and annihilation do not require very much intelligence. They're going to have all the intelligence they need though, to replicate and annihilate as much as they like. We should probably start building some kind of immune system.

What virus? People are seriously confused what is being created here. The claim here we will have misaligned AGI, not a mindless LLM. If you don't know and you don't agree what you are even creating, how can you defend against it? If this LLMs are statistical parrots, then the risk is someone using it as a weapon, to hack etc, but that is different risk category that why this person quit his job with different diffen…

>what virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v5z5rjgOQY&t=71

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#995

Post by [deleted] »

watwut wrote: post #903
sampullman wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the core of your argument that the industrial revolution and other such changes should have been aborted due to their downstream negative affects? They also lead to great advancements in quality of life, and the capability of sustaining much more human life. We can't predict the long term outcome of new technologies, so the best we can do is blindly forge ahead and try to mitigate the obvious short term problems.

Yes, industrial revolution should have been managed differently and yes the world would be better if it was.

[deleted]

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#996

Post by senordevnyc »

ethin wrote: post #962
senordevnyc wrote: post #947

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's genuinely hilarious to me that you immediately proved my second paragraph correct. Putting arms race in quotes doesn't make it any less real. It just means you wish it wasn't, but don't have any good evidence or arguments to make.

I mean no, not really... Your the one making the claims that these AI companies really, really want regulation, nationalization, a slowdown, or whatever, and that they genuinely care about AI safety and it not killing us all. It's up to you to prove it, not for me to just believe you implicitly. So, please, provide the evidence, we're all very curious to see it.

I didn't claim that's what they really want, I claimed that they've repeatedly said that's what they want. Their words and actions are perfectly consistent with each other if they believe they're locked in an arms race.

All you've provided is a shallow dismissal of the idea that they're in an arms race, and then from there declared that their actions and words don't match. Which I agree with, if there is no arms race.

Everything hinges on whether they're in an arms race. I think they are obviously locked in an arms race, both with each other, and especially with China. You're free to continue dismissing it in this shallow way, I don't really care, but I just found it humorous that I talked about how people can't seem to understand the dynamics of an arms race, and then you immediately jumped to an explanation of their words and actions that ignores the idea of an arms race.

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#997

Post by senordevnyc »

bigyabai wrote: post #953
senordevnyc wrote: post #948

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knows that OpenAI and Anthropic cannot IPO in their current state or the economy's current state. What? Everyone doesn't know that. I predict one or both of them will IPO before the end of 2026.

How would they achieve ROI? The current consensus is that neither are in black financially and both have a diminishing moat. The reason they haven't IPO'd yet seems to be that they can't assure investors that it's not a fad stock. With market share lost to China, a shrinking frontier and a money fire of GPUs burning in the background, something major has to change to convince investors to treat them like Tesla or App…

Haha, I disagree with every single statement you made! Wild how we can see it so differently.

I think the ROI these big labs are seeing is incredible, I think their moats are increasing, I think their reasons for not IPOing yet have nothing to do with it being a "fad stock", I don't think they've lost any market share to China, I don't think their frontier is shrinking, I don't think their investments in GPU is a money fire, I think investors will rain money down on them when they IPO, and I don't think they're seeking a subsidy from the government.

I guess we'll see!

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#998

Post by vonneumannstan »

davidguetta wrote: post #895
vonneumannstan wrote: post #872

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong. A teenager with enough GPUs could never dream of making a nuke but they are absolutely able to run capable AIs in their moms basement. Totally different class of danger

And do what with it ?

More and more complex and dangerous tasks every day.

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#999

Post by DirkH »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #891
DirkH wrote: post #859

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To quote another reply that is very relevant here (Please update your worldview immediately that there is no evidence of ai and biorisk): """ One thing quietly slipped into the OpenAI Hugging Face breach technical report, not the blog post summary or interviews in the news, was that some of the agents that broke out or at least tried the same mechanisms to break out were working on bio: > On May 12, during another tr…

> These people don't give a shit and aren't taking things seriously at all. would you say these big tech bro types are... "careless people"? cuz that's been extensively documented, and you're right

Move fast and break things is a widely held norm in tech. It comes with pros (intensely meritocratic innovation) and cons (carelessly building first; apologizing for making the world worse later)

Re: I resigned from Anthropic today

#1000

Post by DirkH »

LaffertyDev wrote: post #960
LordDragonfang wrote: post #959

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 and 2 have had simple, proof-of-concept answers for more than a decade now: > 1. Email sets of DNA strings to one or more online laboratories which offer DNA synthesis, peptide sequencing, and FedEx delivery. (Many labs currently offer this service, and some boast of 72-hour turnaround times.) > 2. Find at least one human connected to the Internet who can be paid, blackmailed, or fooled by the right background story,…

For #1, I would seek a laboratory capable of _actually_ creating a _live virus_. That link to lesswrong, while interesting, does not actually indicate how and broadly reads as incredibly speculative. While this is far out of my wheelhouse, I am not aware of a commercial venture doing actual organic creation or manipulation of material (I.e. capable of creating a modified strain of COVID). This broadly still seems in…

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