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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#991
post #683

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

At least with sports betting it's limited in scope. Polymarket applies the same warping influence to the whole of politics and daily life. That's the biggest problem and difference to me, yes it sucks if teams are throwing or players are altering their play to make or break bets but ultimately the effect/danger of that incentive is limited. And with the more limited and well enumerated pool of potential insiders plac…

The word "Polymarket" can be replaced by "market" there.

Global market is just the largest gambling venue. Always has been. No amount of "monitoring" and "leagues" will keep people from going Boeing whistleblower way.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#992

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You didn't even read my message. At no point do I say the oracle target should be private, that would be ridiculous. Public oracle, private markets on both sides of the issue, until the issue is considered closed, at which point we get to decrypt and find out who betted yes and who betted no. Liquidity would still be public, so you know how much money, but you get no intelligence signal, so world events don't get sha…

Yes, I read your message. > At no point do I say the oracle target should be private Yeah, that's why I said that Case 1 (the one where you actually read TFA) was unlikely. I included it out of charity, because it was the only way I could eke out something remotely relevant to the article from your original comment. Instead, your original said stuff like: > they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amoun…

> because it was the only way I could eke out something remotely relevant to the article from your original comment.

Remotely relevant? It's not like I'm talking about cats, I'm talking about prediction markets, which is the topic of the article. You would have to be extremely uncharitable to not see a holistic discussion about other problems prediction markets face and possible solutions to those problems as relevant. These topics very seldom come up on HN so a mere mention of prediction markets can and should be a very good excuse to have many side threads on the topic that have been waiting to happen.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#993

[flagged]

This is a serious news story that should be concerning to all sides, including people who are generally pro-markets. Thus, I wish that we had produced a top comment that was critical of Polymarket without being deranged. (Libertine? Adam Smith for totally unfettered markets? Satanic ?) If the prediction markets cannot produce a satisfactory solution to this problem, then their license to operate should be seriously c…

Polymarket being an incompetent cabal that doesn't deserve to have a license is so passe, so ingrained in the standard recurring narrative that comes up whenever prediction markets are mentioned, and so universally agreed upon at this point that it frankly isn't that interesting to a lot of people. We all agree with it already, there is no one left to convince, certainly not on this site, better to talk about more interesting things that are nevertheless related. It's, well, boring, and this is exactly why a comment like this wasn't the top comment. I'm not saying a comment like this wouldn't be true, it would, it just isn't going to be a top comment, and that fact is unsurprising. I do share your sentiment though, that it would have been nice if human attention worked slightly differently here, but it does not.

> Hand over the names of the large bettors on that side of the market to the Israeli police

Woah there, didn't see this coming to be honest. But, I mean we already trust Israel to spend our tax dollars on genocide, so heck, why not, they'll do a great job!

> If Polymarket (and its competitors) cannot fix this, then it's time to get tough. Maybe it's time to actually crack down on Americans using VPNs

First of all, why is it time to get tough on limiting human rights, why is your freedom of speech and freedom of privacy the first thing on the chopping block, rather than Polymarket's license to operate, which is a much more obvious target for all of our disdain.

And also, it's physically impossible to crack down on VPNs 100%, especially within the constitutional framework we have in the US, and the technical reality of the modern internet. Keep in mind the US Government itself invented TOR to help destabilize and leak information out of autocratic regimes that have implemented sweeping censorship and blocking of VPNs (you know, the sort of autocratic regime you apparently want to start here in the US given your comments on the matter).

From a technical perspective, with SSL being standard for most web traffic it is utterly trivial to set up VPNs that hide in all kinds of ways that look completely innocuous and are unblockable. You can even hide exfiltration traffic in DNS queries, and I even got to see this a few times in practice when I still worked for the DoD back in the day. People will go to all kinds of lengths to get information in and out of a closed system and stopping that is like trying to catch air with your hands, you will always just end up hurting/restricting the average citizen and the bad actor who wants to slip through will still slip through.

Such a ban or KYC program is also fundamentally against every notion of privacy and freedom enshrined by the constitution and even more so by the founding spirit and values of the internet and reputable tech circles that care about privacy and freedom. You sound just as bad as Zuckerberg and Palantir trying to push KYC on Linux right now to help build a better mass-surveillance state for their fascist overlords. You seem to be the sort who would be extremely supportive of that project, though I sincerely hope that is not the case.

> we have extradition with Israel

For now. Once the Boomers finish their reverse mortgages and are finally out of the equation we'll hopefully cut all funding, sanction Israel, and label them a terroristic genocidal state, which they are. As usual, moral progress is always delayed by rich old men refusing to let go. Ethnostates are also extremely problematic in their own right, never mind genocidal ones. Certainly not morally praiseworthy, certainly not good "ally" material. Should be sanctioned in the very very least, definitely not subsidized.

And the funniest part is I agree with you that Polymarket is bad, which is your underlying point that you care so strongly about throughout this thread, but your arrogance and sudden undeserved spitefulness, in response to completely innocuous, imaginative, on-topic comments, just comes off as really bitter and makes you hard to talk to and even harder to agree with. Like you really have an axe to grind and I think it is rooted in some sort of deep-seated fear that everyone around you is as evil and misanthropic as you claim to be through your espoused values.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#994

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the whole prediction market thesis assumes information flows freely into prices — breaks down when participants start trying to influence the information itself How naive can you possibly be...

lol fair enough, naive is a strong word but yeah i get your point. i didnt mean nobody tries to manipulate markets — obviously they do. my point was more that the original thesis behind prediction markets assumed this would be a minor problem because the financial incentive to correct misinformation would outweigh the incentive to create it. turns out thats not always true when you can make more money threatening a j…

I think it is much stronger than that: I think the whole reason these exist is to create a way for parties to profit off insider information that side-steps the stock market. Any other effects are a happy coincidence.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#995

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol fair enough, naive is a strong word but yeah i get your point. i didnt mean nobody tries to manipulate markets — obviously they do. my point was more that the original thesis behind prediction markets assumed this would be a minor problem because the financial incentive to correct misinformation would outweigh the incentive to create it. turns out thats not always true when you can make more money threatening a j…

I think it is much stronger than that: I think the whole reason these exist is to create a way for parties to profit off insider information that side-steps the stock market. Any other effects are a happy coincidence.

thats a pretty cynical take but i can see the argument. the counter tho is that most of the volume on kalshi is sports contracts now where insider info barely applies - like you dont need a mole at the NBA to know lebron is probably scoring over 25 tonight. the geopolitical stuff is where the insider trading concern is legit

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#996

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about other countries but in Australia at least, betting was only allowed at race courses on race days. That has obviously changed though.

This was the case in Italy too until a few decades ago, except for some specific locations with a casino license, and a national kind of sport lottery. Since sport betting became legal the issues with gambling addiction have skyrocketed but the state is addicted to the trickle of provents from it and can't cut it back. There was an attempt to limit sport bets advertising, and that was widely sidestepped (you advertis…

Ah yeah, there are discussions here about banning advertising. TV networks but a lot of money from gambling ads though.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#997
post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are getting death threats for writing news articles as part of their job. How is this comparable?

Profession athletes get threats for winning games which is part of their job. It's exactly the same. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/09/sport/athlete-abuse-betting-s...

Fair. I suppose what's changed is the breadth/scope

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#998
post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least with sports betting it's limited in scope. Polymarket applies the same warping influence to the whole of politics and daily life. That's the biggest problem and difference to me, yes it sucks if teams are throwing or players are altering their play to make or break bets but ultimately the effect/danger of that incentive is limited. And with the more limited and well enumerated pool of potential insiders plac…

The word "Polymarket" can be replaced by "market" there. Global market is just the largest gambling venue. Always has been. No amount of "monitoring" and "leagues" will keep people from going Boeing whistleblower way.

The "market" isn't a zero-sum-game though. Polymarket is.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#999

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The word "Polymarket" can be replaced by "market" there. Global market is just the largest gambling venue. Always has been. No amount of "monitoring" and "leagues" will keep people from going Boeing whistleblower way.

The "market" isn't a zero-sum-game though. Polymarket is.

I don't see how this is a counterargument.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#1000

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I read your message. > At no point do I say the oracle target should be private Yeah, that's why I said that Case 1 (the one where you actually read TFA) was unlikely. I included it out of charity, because it was the only way I could eke out something remotely relevant to the article from your original comment. Instead, your original said stuff like: > they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amoun…

> because it was the only way I could eke out something remotely relevant to the article from your original comment. Remotely relevant? It's not like I'm talking about cats, I'm talking about prediction markets, which is the topic of the article. You would have to be extremely uncharitable to not see a holistic discussion about other problems prediction markets face and possible solutions to those problems as relevan…

Hmm, okay, I can see that. I guess I wasn't paying much attention to the frequency of prediction markets articles on here. From that perspective, I see where you're coming from. I was miffed by the "here" in your "I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here", because I assumed it meant the story under discussion, but I suppose it's a fine comment if we think of this page as a general discussion of the industry.

As to your exact proposal, I do have some criticism (less hostile this time). I don't think it would be easy to get people to do trades when they can't see the price. It's not enough to just ask everybody for limit orders, and then only pair off the ones that cross, because you're asking people to tie up capital on a trade they don't even know the price of.

Basically, somebody does a trade on a prediction market not because he believes he knows the probability, but because he believe he knows it better than the market.

Is there a way in your proposal to get around this limitation?

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