Live data from Hacker News

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

npr.org

991–1000 of 1001 posts

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#991
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That, combined with extreme short-termism and unbridled optimism. All three probably having a similar root cause. And we see this across the board. A canonical one that remains prevalent: "If only people would've come out and voted for Kamala in 2024, we wouldn't be in this mess". But then if you follow the pattern, with the candidate she was and what she would've done, this would've secured an ultra-MAGA victory in…

> Almost anything that China does is based on long-term consequences. I'm not sure that's the case with Xi. Well, I wouldn't be surprised if he tries, but as far as I can tell from a distance, his value system produces unwise decisions long-term. 10+ years of Xi have slowed economic growth, produced antagonism diplomatically, I'm not sure that the Belt and Road is currently seen favorably. He hasn't figured out a way…

Since you quoted the long-term part:

The policies you're naming are still enacted for their expected long-term consequences. That doesn't mean all of them are successful in achieving their goals, sometimes their expectations turn out to be wrong. This can happen with any policy, regardless of whether the goal was short-term of long-term.

If you're talking about the power shift part: Many if not most (including me) believe that slowing of economic growth was inevitable, it simply wasn't a level that could be sustained in the long run. There are plenty of issues in China and plenty of policies that may turn out to have failed - much of it remains to be seen, as again, the goals are long term and we may consider them successful a decade or two from now. But the scientific gap with the rest of the world is widening every day, China is crushing it in that area and the fruits will be reaped. Robotics, every kind of energy, every kind of engineering.

> Certainly what Xi did with Hong Kong made peaceful re-unification with Taiwan very unlikely.

It didn't have an impact. By 2019 the chance was already zero barring black swan events. The chance is still zero barring black swan events.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#992
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an American, I’m really starting to feel that way.

Except midterm elections are literally this year. But other than that small detail, sure.

The ones where they’re going to send brownshirts to intimidate voters in blue states? The ones they’re going to try to disrupt like Dallas County last night? The ones they’ve trying desperately to Gerrymander to lock down their dictatorial power? Those elections?

It really feels like they’re trying hard to change the rules so that they’re the only ones who can win, to be just like their idol/puppeteer in Russia.

And it feels like an external intervention is one of the only things that may help.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#993
post #992

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except midterm elections are literally this year. But other than that small detail, sure.

The ones where they’re going to send brownshirts to intimidate voters in blue states? The ones they’re going to try to disrupt like Dallas County last night? The ones they’ve trying desperately to Gerrymander to lock down their dictatorial power? Those elections? It really feels like they’re trying hard to change the rules so that they’re the only ones who can win, to be just like their idol/puppeteer in Russia. And…

Oh, and I forgot to mention the ironically-named (so much of their stuff is ironically-named…) “SAVE” Act, that’s set to disrupt the process even further by having “AI” purge voter registration rolls.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#994
post #939

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies. I don’t know much about the region; is it incorrect to say that the nations you listed (excepting Jordan) are collections of fiefdoms with a relatively weak central power? To OP’s point, that is not how I view Iran

That would only be nominally correct regarding UAE, which consists of seven emirates.

Emiratis would describe themselves as a cohesive nation of Emiratis living under seven different Emirs. (There are many YouTube videos about it.) Emiratis from different Emirs do not view themselves as from different ethnicities/tribes/nations.

BTW -- My original post forgot to mention Kuwait as a cohesive nation.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#995

If true, and given how easy it seemed decapitate the regime I can't see another Ayatollah taking over, hopefully the people take over and institute a real secular democracy based on capitalism.

The secular democracy in that region is hardly helpful in terms of peace.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#996

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's definitely odd if he was just sitting in his compound. That's a very, well, known place for him. Surely Iran has plenty of secure underground bunkers for leadership to retreat to?

Fleeing is seen as dishonorable in many parts of the Arab world. Remember the Israeli lies about how Yahya Sinwar dressed in women's clothes and were trying to cross the border to Egypt? In reality he was out in the field with his men killing Israeli soldiers. He died a brave death and Khamenei will now have died one too.

Is the IRGC wearing burkas to evade detection also a fabrication?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#997
post #939

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would only be nominally correct regarding UAE, which consists of seven emirates.

Emiratis would describe themselves as a cohesive nation of Emiratis living under seven different Emirs. (There are many YouTube videos about it.) Emiratis from different Emirs do not view themselves as from different ethnicities/tribes/nations. BTW -- My original post forgot to mention Kuwait as a cohesive nation.

Yes, I agree with you on this part, but the Emirs are very different places. I lived for two years in Dubai, not really by choice, I was sent on a three month assignment by my company that just got extended.

I came to appreciate the place.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#998

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without doxxing yourself, why were you unable to visit? I have known Persian expats a few times in my life, and they were always able to visit without issue.

If they have said anything against the regime on social media, they would be wise not to visit. I personally know many Persian expats who meet family in Turkey and have been anxious about going back.

[dead]

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#999
post #735
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly people within the Trump administration have thought a lot about this.

The evidence shows that generally, nobody in the Trump administration gives a lot of serious thought to anything...

Time seems to be proving you correct.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#1000
post #992

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except midterm elections are literally this year. But other than that small detail, sure.

The ones where they’re going to send brownshirts to intimidate voters in blue states? The ones they’re going to try to disrupt like Dallas County last night? The ones they’ve trying desperately to Gerrymander to lock down their dictatorial power? Those elections? It really feels like they’re trying hard to change the rules so that they’re the only ones who can win, to be just like their idol/puppeteer in Russia. And…

> The ones where they’re going to send brownshirts to intimidate voters in blue states?

Any actual evidence this is happening or is going to happen? I've seen some ACLU talking points, always conveniently placed above a donate button, but not any facts.

> The ones they’re going to try to disrupt like Dallas County last night?

Not from Dallas but looking at the news it looks like a state issue involving the Texas Supreme Court? No mention of Trump, GOP, ICE, or brownshirts.

> The ones they’ve trying desperately to Gerrymander to lock down their dictatorial power? Those elections?

Gerrymandering just started under Trump?

I know there is no way to verify this, but I am not a Trump supporter or Republican. I am just someone who thinks the rhetoric is completely overblown, not supported by reality, and especially comparing it to Iran they're not even in the same phylum let alone class.

Post reply on HN