The debate stage is a deliberately constrained environment. The world and where it goes doesn't work like that.
LLM Inevitabilism
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Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#992This is an excellent description of the mood that we are going through right now. It does feel inevitable that AI is going to be part of our life, whether we like or not.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#993Earlier quoted context omitted.
My take since day one: (1) Model capabilities will plateau as training data is exhausted. Some additional gains will be possible by better training, better architectures, more compute, longer context windows or "infinite" context architectures, etc., but there are limits here. (2) Training on synthetic data beyond a very limited amount will result in overfitting because there is no new information. To some extent you…
The next step is clearly improved vision and everyday-physics models. These can also solve hallucinations.
clearly
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#994I think two things can be true simultaneously: 1. LLMs are a new technology and it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle with that. It's difficult to imagine a future where they don't continue to exist in some form, with all the timesaving benefits and social issues that come with them. 2. Almost three years in, companies investing in LLMs have not yet discovered a business model that justifies the massive expen…
I don't really buy your point 2. Just the other day Meta announced hundreds of billions of dollars investment into more AI datacenters. Companies are bringing back nuclear power plants to support this stuff. Earlier this year OpenAI and Oracle announced their $500bn AI datacenter project, but admittedly in favor of your point have run into funding snags, though that's supposedly from tariff fears with foreign investo…
Sort of a followup to myself if I come back searching this comment or someone sees this thread later... here's a study that just came out on AI attitudes: https://report2025.seismic.org/
I don't think it supports the bits I quoted, but it does include more negativity than I would have predicted before seeing it.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#995Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are many technologies that have seemed inevitable and seen retreats under the lack of commensurate business return (the supersonic jetliner) I think this is a great analogy, not just to the current state of AI, but maybe even computers and the internet in general. Supersonic transports must've seemed amazing, inevitable, and maybe even obvious to anyone alive at the time of their debut. But hiding under that…
> So maybe in 2075 we'll all be watching documentaries about LLMs (maybe even on our phones or laptops that look basically the same), and reminiscing about the mid-2020s and wondering why what seemed to be such a promising technology disappeared almost entirely. It's hard for me to believe that anyone who works with technology in general, and LLMs in particular, could think this.
Technology has been stagnant for over 50 years, so it is easy to believe if you live in reality.
But sure if you exclusively look at the one field that has been advancing until about now I can see how one would end up where you are.
But this is exactly right, we are incrementally moving into the lamest cyberpunk future one can imagine, and we have been for some time.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#996If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…
Exactly. Anyone who has learned to use these tools to your ultimate advantage (not just short term perceived one, but actually) knows their value. This is why I've been extremely suspicious of the monopolisation of the LLM services by single business/country. They may well be loosing billions on training huge models now. But once the average work performance shifts up sufficiently so as to leave "non AI enhanced" by…
It's weird noone can measure and show us the numbers of this ultimate advantage. Is "ultimate advantage" in the room right now?
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#997There may be an "LLM Winter" as people discover that LLMs can't be trusted to do anything. Look for frantic efforts by companies to offload responsibility for LLM mistakes onto consumers. We've got to have something that has solid "I don't know" and "I don't know how to do this" outputs. We're starting to see reports of LLM usage having negative value for programmers, even though they think it's helping. Too much eff…
I find these LLM doomer takes as silly as LLM maximalist takes. LLMs are literally performing useful functions today and they're not going away. Are they AGI? No, but so what? There is waaay too much projecting and philosophizing going on in these comments and not enough engineering-minded comments from objective observers. Is AI hyped? Sure. Are LLMs overshadowing other approaches? Sure. Are LLMs inefficient? Somewh…
What literally useful functions worth the trillions needed for ROI are you talking about? What are the numbers? How did you measure it? Please share!
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
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Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#999Two things are very clearly true: 1) LLMs can do a lot of things that previous computing techniques could not do and we need time to figure out how best to harness and utilize those capabilities; but also 2) there is a wide range of powerful people who have tons of incentive to ride the hype wave regardless of where things will actually land. To the article's point—I don't think it's useful to accept the tech CEO fra…
Is it miraculous? We have spent hundreds of billions, trillions on reading the whole internet(training we call it) and with breakthroughs in statistics we can guess the next probable word and it makes sense to a pretty high degree. I think it works pretty much as you would expect does it not? With all that data read and all that money spent?
The impressive thing with the tech is that we(the humans) thought of it and through better hardware actually where able to do it. Super f-ing cool but in the end pretty pointless imo.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#1000In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…
It is only inevitable if there is trillions in ROI for these use cases or the money well will dry up, inevitably! How much is it worth to you?