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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#991

Post by gsf_emergency »

pdfseek wrote: post #980

Made in China is the result of meticulous division of labor across various industries in Chinese society, gradually built up over 30-40 years. If Americans decided to abandon their current lifestyle and start building from scratch, perhaps they could. But who would give it up?

I'd say 60 years. As you implied one can't just dismiss the heartbreaking necessity of the CuRev

Even after considering the alternate pathway called ROC[tm]-- after all you may argue Morris Chang et al gave up lifestyles-- & I hear Rationalistic Daoism is having a resurgence on the mainland (vs Confucianism)--

  Because (sadly) it's all still about morale & spiritual

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#992

Post by runeks »

robertlagrant wrote: post #108
imbusy111 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?

> But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead? It's hard to quantify. E.g. the CHIPS act is a strategic thing in case TSMC is disrupted for some reason. How valuable is insurance? How much useful work (and skill) do you ship overseas in exchange for promissory notes[0]? [0] https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/tariffs-saving-and-invest...

> E.g. the CHIPS act is a strategic thing in case TSMC is disrupted for some reason. How valuable is insurance?

What do you think the odds are that the CHIPS act will make the US capable of building TSMC-level chips?

Calculating the value of an insurance isn't complex. First, you calculate (1) the cost of the insurance, then (2) a rough idea of the probability that you'll need it, and (3) the cost of the insured-against-event occurring.

The problem here is that no one in their right mind believes the CHIPS act will make the US capable of producing chips on par with those of TSMC, so it's not actually an insurance. More like a political show — see, we doing something!

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#993

Post by runeks »

mcv wrote: post #640
saati wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US can't even make EUV machines, just parts of it.

"Can't even". I think there's only one country that can, so the US is not alone.

No one country can. ASML imports parts from all over the world.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#994

Post by runeks »

danvoell wrote: post #669

"incentivize, subsidize" - yes. There should be less incentives and tax breaks for "holding an asset" and more incentives for making things that improve human lives. Most of the laws are set by the incumbents who stand to lose what they have built and who have the money to pay the lawyers to set the tax code. Real estate should not get incentives unless its getting someone in a home. Private equity, same. Venture cap…

> There should be less incentives and tax breaks for "holding an asset" and more incentives for making things that improve human lives.

I think you're overlooking that, say, giving out a 10-year loan for a small business is exactly "holding an asset" (holding a bond issued by said small business for 10 years). For the benefit of everyone involved.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#995

Post by jofla_net »

astrange wrote: post #820
jofla_net wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those nets tho...

There's nothing unusual about suicide nets in a place with a lot of people. They're on the Golden Gate Bridge but that doesn't mean SF is a sweatshop. (The suicide rate at Foxconn is lower than average for China.)

Crossing the bridge is hard work.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#996

Post by thewileyone »

bsder wrote: post #918
silisili wrote: post #723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a dearth of applicants for jobs exactly like what I've posted. Why don't people take them? It's pay. It's always pay. You gave a range so I'm guessing the lower end is starting out, why take that when nearly every entry level job, with far less demand, pays about the same? Start your pay at $45/hr and people will flood in. If they aren't, it's because the factory is too remote for population to get to. Put…

> It's pay. It's always pay. Indeed. I attended an injection molding conference and one of the panel discussions was about the poor state of hiring and retention. I stayed expecting to hear the standard complaints about the fact that injection molding was considered "obsolete" (really?), the pipeline was too weak so wages were out of hand and there was too much churn. I was interested in which companies were hiring o…

A friend, who owns a food packing factory, was ranting about his workers and stated, "When you pay peanuts, you really get monkeys!". I responded, "You've just stated and solved your problem in the same sentence!"

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#997

Post by toomuchtodo »

sfn42 wrote: post #906
charlie0 wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol, $25hr. McDonald's entry-level wage is $20hr in CA. The $5 premium is not enough of an incentive to move to the middle of nowhere for a job.

Will your pay gradually increase to $45 or more at McDonald's?

Unless it's in a union contract, there is no guarantee it will at your non fast food option.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#998

Post by mbs159 »

bilbo0s wrote: post #988
mbs159 wrote: post #987

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I'm also a realist. A realist would prepare for the worst

The worst is us not being here anymore. No real need for us to make economic or investment preparations for that eventuality. It does us no good in the life we do have to say, "Well, I can't invest in the US because in the worst case, non of our secret weapons function fully, Russia blows us away, and all my real estate and manufacturing investments go up in smoke." We'd sit around never improving anything, because i…

> "Well, I can't invest in the US because in the worst case, non of our secret weapons function fully, Russia blows us away, and all my real estate and manufacturing investments go up in smoke."

Can't speak for others, but I stopped investing in the US (more specifically, ETFs and stocks) after the current administration called Europeans ungrateful and parasitic.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#999

Post by pm3003 »

vel0city wrote: post #950
ta20240528 wrote: post #934

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) The alternative is for millions of local-currency patents in Lesotho to automatically be valid for two decades in USA, EU, and Japan. 2) An of course it doesn't prevent IP violations - Eurocopter (now Airbus helicopters) had to spend millions to enforce their patents against the thieves* at Bell helicopter. https://www.bananaip.com/intellepedia/bell-helicopter-v-euro... * not my preferred choice of words, but its…

I'm confused by the ending of this article. It seems like two mutually exclusive outcomes happened. > The court held that the landing gear certified and sold by Bell Helicopter on its Model 429 helicopter, namely the Production Gear, does not infringe the Eurocopter patent. The court invalidated all but one claim of Eurocopter’s patent. Bell Helicopter is, therefore, free to continue all use and sales of its Model 42…

The first gear that Bell made was clearly a copy of Eurocopter's, though they claimed otherwise, and because of this they couldn't / didn't want to move on with certification and production. A lot of this can be considered as not being patent infrigement (development and experimentation, prior art claims...).

They slightly modified the gear on the production models. Eurocopter claimed the slightly modified gear is essentially the same (likely true) and thus still infringes on the patent (the court ruled otherwise).

The judge said the new modified gear is okay but ordered the old ones to be destroyed.

A Pyrrhic tactical victory for Eurocopter (kept their patent at great cost) and a strategic defeat (as Bell is essentially still selling their tech).

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#1000

Post by croes »

NoTeslaThrow wrote: post #581

We never stopped manufacturing, we just stopped employing people. > We don’t have the infrastructure to manufacture That's trivially false given we're the second-largest manufacturer in the world. We just don't want to employ people, hence why we can't make an iphone or refine raw materials. The actual issue is that our business culture is antithetical to a healthy society. The idea of employing Americans is anti-bus…

Just because the US is manufacturing doesn’t mean it has the infrastructure to manufacture more.
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