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Guess I'm a rationalist now

scottaaronson.blog

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Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#981
post #970

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is "theory of power" a necessary framing? "Theory of power" seems to be only a popular idea in "online left progressive" circles which are based on pop readings of post-structuralist continental philosophy. There's plenty of other schools of thought out there and there have been many criticisms of the idea of "theory of power" altogether. Reading critiques of Hegel is a great starting point for this reading. Whet…

you've latched on to some academic sense of the term but I understood exactly what the person you're replying to meant. They mean: are these people you would respect and trust to be in charge of things? What would they do? And a lot of people's vibe-check says it's a big unknown question mark, or worse, which is not something you can put faith in.

It's hard to argue with vibes which is what makes today's culture war based politics so difficult to weigh in on conclusively. It's all just vibes after all. One person's vibes can be cap to someone else.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#982

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think that massive, very long term droughts might cause serious instability, but I have since changed my mind. In highly developed nations, the amount of irrigation infrastructure built in the last 100 years is simple stunning. Plus, national agriculture research programmes are always researching how to use less water and grow the same amount of product. About drinking water: Rich places just build desalina…

'America Is Using Up Its Groundwater Like There’s No Tomorrow' ( https://waterwatch.org/america-is-using-up-its-groundwater-l... ) to support that stunning irrigation infrastructure. You should not interpret that historical success to imply future success as it depended on non-sustainable groundwater extraction. Eg, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer > Many farmers in the Texas High Plains, which rely par…

You raise an interesting point about inland population centers. My guess: Household daily water usage is a tiny fraction compared to Ag. As a result, at some point, I assume that states will slowly raise the cost of Ag water, until the most wasteful practices disappear. Example: They could move to drip irrigation that Israel uses, but it must at least 10x more expensive.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#983

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(The rationalists never took that label, it is falsely applied to them. The project is called rationality, not rationalism. Unfortunately, this is now so pervasive that there's no fixing it.)

Hmm, interesting. Might I trouble you for your definitions of rationality and rationalism? (Not a "gotcha". I really want to know.)

Classical Less Wrong text about "what is rationality": https://www.readthesequences.com/What-Do-I-Mean-By-Rationali...

Shortly: believing what is true, and choosing the actions that lead to the things you value.

If the sky is blue and you can verify that by looking at the sky, it is reasonable to believe that sky is blue, and it is unreasonable to believe that the sky is green just because some authority or your favorite political party said so. If you know that eating poison would kill you, and if you want to live a long life, it is reasonable to avoid the poison, and unreasonable to eat the poison.

These are separate skills, because many people know what to do, and yet don't do that, or are good at following their beliefs, but the beliefs happen to be wrong. Studying the rational beliefs is called "epistemology", studying the rational actions is called "decision theory".

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The word "rationalism" is used by many people in different ways: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalism_(disambiguation)

In internet discussions inevitably someone mentions the 17th century definition of "rationalism" as opposed to "empiricism" as the only historically valid meaning of the word. But for example, the approach of Karl Popper is often called "critical rationalism", and although the Less Wrong philosophy is different from Popper's, it is closer to him than to the 17th century "rationalists".

(The difference between Popper and Less Wrong in a nutshell: Popper treats arguments in favor of a theory, and arguments against a theory, as two fundamentally different things that follow different rules. Less Wrong treats all arguments the same way, using the Bayes Theorem. In practice, the difference is smaller than it might seem, because Popper's main concern was to never treat a theory as a 100% truth, especially when there is evidence against it, and Less Wrong agrees that you should never treat any theory as 100% likely. The advantage of Less Wrong approach is that you can also apply it to probabilistic theories. For example, one person says that a coin is fair, another person says that actually the coin is 55% likely to come up heads, and 45% likely to come up tails. I have no idea how you would decide this problem from Popper's perspective, because any experimental result is kinda compatible with both theories, it's just the more coinflips you make, the less likely some of those theories become; but there is no clear line when you should call one of them "falsified".)

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I think this is the kind of thing where you simply can't make everyone happy, no matter what you do. As an analogy, imagine a world where every time you say e.g. "American president", at least three people in the thread remind you that actually Donald Trump is not a president of the entire continent, only of a part of the North America. So the next time you pay extra attention and say carefully "the president of the United States", and then everyone is like: "you mean the American president, why don't you speak simply?".

There is a community around Less Wrong. Whatever we call them, we should choose the name so that it is obvious that we refer to them, and not to the 17th century philosophers who believed that evidence is not necessary. Things are real, words are just labels.

At the beginning, it was just a few dozen people from different parts of the planet, reading the same blog. They referred to themselves as "aspiring rationalists". (As a label that applies to an individual who aspires to be more rational.) I would be okay to use this label, but apparently many people are too lazy to say "aspiring" all the time, and when you only say "rationalists", (1) it sounds smug, as if you believe that you already are perfectly rational, rather than you are trying to become more so, and (2) inevitably, some outsider will mention the 17th century philosophers. I think people used "Less Wrong community", "rationality community", "LessWrong-style rationalists", "x-rationalists", and maybe a few other words. But there was always pushback against using "rationalist" without any adjective.

As a long-time member of the community myself, I don't have a problem with anyone using any of these labels. I know what you mean, and I am not going to play dumb. It's the non-members who need to coordinate on a standard label for us, so that they are not confused about who they are talking about. And I am even okay with them choosing a label that we don't use. (I am doing the same to other groups, e.g. I say "Mormons" instead of "The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints".) If the world decides to call us "rationalists", so be it... but then don't blame us for using the same label as the 17th century philosophers, because we don't. I think that "rationality community" or "Less Wrong community" are both nice options. (Just please don't call us TESCREAL because that's a crazy conspiracy theory.)

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#985

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and I agree that LW is doing philosophy in that sense.

Sure, I just object to the characterisation of "actually correct", as though each of those ideas has not gone back and forth on philosophers thinking that particular idea is "actually correct" for centuries. LW does not appear to have much if any novel insight; just much better marketing.

I think philosophy has gone back and forth for so long that they're now, as a field, pathologically afraid of actually committing.

The AI connection with LessWrong means that the whole thing is framed with a backdrop of "how would you actually construct a mind?" That means you can't just chew on the questions, you have to actually commit to an answer and run the risk of being wrong.

This teaches you two things: 1. How to figure what you actually believe the answer is, and why, and make sure that this is the best answer that you can give; 2. how to keep moving when you notice that you made a misstep in part 1.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#986

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like what the original sources would have written if someone had fed them some speak-clearly pills. Yudkowsky and company may have the dumbing-down problem, but the original sources often have a clarity problem. (That's why people are still arguing about what they meant centuries later. Not just whether they were right - though they argue about that too - but what they meant .) Even better, I'd like some filterin…

Have you considered that the ideas that philosophy discusses are very complex, and words are not a sufficient medium to describe those ideas? That's why you have people arguing over what someone meant. Dumbing it down or trying to write something unambiguous doesn't actually make it better.

I will grant you that the ideas are complex. But if words are not a sufficient medium, then we can't think clearly about the ideas.

Original philosophers have the right to define their own terms. If they can't define them clearly, then they probably aren't thinking clearly enough about their ideas to be able to talk to the rest of us about them. (Unless they consider it more important to sound impressive and hard to understand. But if that's the case, we can say "wow, you sound impressive" and then ignore them.)

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#987

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think some criticism of EA or rationalism is also a reaction to a creeping unspoken consensus that "things are only going to get worse" in the future. I think it's that combined with the EA approach to it which is: let's focus on space flight and shrimp welfare. Not sure which side is more in denial about the impending future? I have no belief any particular individual can do anything about shrimp welfare more tha…

> I think it's that combined with the EA approach to it which is: let's focus on space flight and shrimp welfare. Not sure which side is more in denial about the impending future? I think its a result of its complete denial of and ignorance of politics. Because rationalist and effective altruist movements make a whole lot more sense, if you realize they are talking about deeply social and political issues with all po…

Well put.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#988
post #574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being rational and rationalist are not the same thing. Funnily this sort of false equivalence that relies on being "technically correct" is at the core of what makes them...difficult.

There's more to the group identity than just applying logic and rationality, yes. But surely 'rationalists' of all people wouldn't want to take the position that some of their key ideas don't result primarily from applying rational thought processes. Any part of their worldview that doesn't follow immediately from foundational principles of logic and reason is presumably subject to revision based on evidence and argu…

Right but their version of rationality is very much lacking in emotional and even social intelligence. In fact it seems those traits are discouraged in discussions. Instead things are viewed from a purely Bayesian/Spock/Sherlocke/Data style perspective. These arguments can only make sense by assuming far more predictive power (or far less accounting for chaos and hidden variables) and by developing blind spots not found in softer arguments which have their own problems but at least try to consider ethics and economics from more nuanced perspectives.

Their core principle seems to be that many or even most answers to humanity's problems can be well defined in the first place and then solved by invoking Bayesian logic. This is only true in a frictionless vacuum.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#989

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always find it interesting that when the topic of rationalists' fixation on neoreactionary topics comes into question, the primary defenses are that it's important to look at controversial ideas and that we shouldn't dismiss novel ideas because we don't like the group sharing them. Yet as soon as the topic turns to criticisms of the rationalist community, we're supposed to ignore those ideas and instead fixate on t…

> when the topic of rationalists' fixation on neoreactionary topics comes into question, the primary defenses are that it's important to look at controversial ideas and that we shouldn't dismiss novel ideas because we don't like the group sharing them. No. Rationalists do say that it's important to do those things, because that's true. But it is not a defense of a "fixation on neoreactionary topics", because there is…

The party line has shifted comrade. This year with posts on Richard Lynn etc. Scott Alexander is now saying in public the same thing he said in a private email: that he thinks race pseudoscientists and neoreactionaries are brilliant and precious and as many people as possible need to read the best 1% of their ideas. He is no longer pretending that he thinks they have nothing to offer and just has them in his blogroll because ?

The private email from 2014 explained how he hoped people would respond to the anti-neoreactionary FAQ, and his posts this year are 100% consistent with that.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#990

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'America Is Using Up Its Groundwater Like There’s No Tomorrow' ( https://waterwatch.org/america-is-using-up-its-groundwater-l... ) to support that stunning irrigation infrastructure. You should not interpret that historical success to imply future success as it depended on non-sustainable groundwater extraction. Eg, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer > Many farmers in the Texas High Plains, which rely par…

You raise an interesting point about inland population centers. My guess: Household daily water usage is a tiny fraction compared to Ag. As a result, at some point, I assume that states will slowly raise the cost of Ag water, until the most wasteful practices disappear. Example: They could move to drip irrigation that Israel uses, but it must at least 10x more expensive.

My limited understanding of the irrigation history in the US tells makes me extremely pessimistic about the likelihood of your prediction.

I think you only need to look at the water politics of the Great Salt Lake to see the difficulty.

Look at how little water use has changed during the last 25 years of the southwestern North American megadrought.

The US policy appears to be to pray for rain.

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