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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#981

Post by captainredbeard »

InitialLastName wrote: post #759
captainredbeard wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government over-reactions to COVID19 have been disastrous. There would have been an economic hit for sure but things would have returned to near normal by August 2020 if they had respected freedom (or if people had disobeyed in mass).

How many dead people would that "normal" have been worth to you? If, instead, people had behaved responsibly in mass and we had used the time we got from that to establish coherent contact tracing and testing, things would have returned to normal by August as well, only without many the deaths your way would cause.

> How many dead people would that "normal" have been worth to you?

A lot

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#983

Post by someonehere »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

I can avoid getting into my car and running that risk. It’s still there and can happen, but I can opt to not drive my car.

The vaccine is eventually going to be mandated to go back to the office, go places, etc.. That’s a risk that you can’t avoid and will have to take.

I’m all for vaccinations and get them when needed, I’m still not comfortable for vaccines that have not been approved. Right now, they all have emergency approval and not overall approval. According to the cdc, vaccines need at least ten years of data to be considered safe for use. We’re only a little over a year into the development of the vaccine. Not really safe in my eyes.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#984

Post by TrevorJ »

mhb wrote: post #919
stjohnswarts wrote: post #886

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's exactly what they'll be studying to see if it's statistically relevant. They're being super cautious. Some would say over cautious but I think it's fine since J&J is currently only 5-10% of the vaccine supply going out. Which means a slight slow down in vaccine supply but not as big a deal as AZ in Europe since that is their main supply.

A slight slow down is a euphemism for people dying. Maybe it's the right decision, but it's disingenuous not to say it in those terms.

>A slight slow down is a euphemism for people dying.

We apparently don't know that, which is why they are pausing to examine the safety of the vaccine.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#985

Post by TrevorJ »

makomk wrote: post #961
TrevorJ wrote: post #870

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that given the fact that we've been getting sick from corona-family viruses for years with no suspected link to cancers, this should be of relatively low concern, barring any specific information. There are other potential longer term side effects that at least seem to have some emerging data to back them up, which seem more concerning to me.

How would we even know? In order to tell if coronaviruses caused cancer, we'd need to be keeping track of which people had ever been infected with one of them and how many of them ended up with cancer, and we're not. It'd just fall into the background level of cancer incidence otherwise. Hell, we haven't even figured out if they're the main cause of Kawasaki disease yet, and that's a fairly spectacular and dangerous…

This isn't actionable information, though. There are no good ways to mitigate all unknown potential risks, because the mitigations have risks themselves.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#986

Post by stopping »

_karl_b_12 wrote: post #958
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

>> Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). I'm certainly not denying Covid19, but I do take all the statistics with a grain of salt. It's important to understand that those people died with, not necessarily of Covid19. Also, why are so many positive tested persons without any signs of illness? I wonder what numbers would result in testing every death for other viruses. The best, maybe only…

The number of excess deaths in the world is quite similar to the number of known COVID deaths. In fact, excess deaths is the higher number. It's very likely that the number of COVID deaths is currently underestimated, as spread of other infectious diseases has been drastically diminished by the lockdowns.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#987

Post by autokad »

lupire wrote: post #819
autokad wrote: post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

0.00009% over a 30 year period means you have about a 1% chance of being blown up by starting your car. that's about the odds of catching HIV while having unprotected sex with someone who is HIV positive (depends on a lot of factors though).

Error, mismatched units. The 30 year odds of HIV due to unprotected sex is far higher.

point being, even if it was just 1 time, had you performed that action you would be very worried I presume.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#988

Post by 5cents »

queuep wrote: post #953
5cents wrote: post #902

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Norway: Women The astrazeneca vaccine was put on hold, if not, it's not hard to imagine the number of fatalities surpassing the number of covid-19-related deaths, even when ignoring comorbidities [0] https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/dai... [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104882 [2] https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/GaOr3l/monica-aafloey-hansen-54-...

Where in [1] does it state that 4 died? There seems to be 2 women who died. Patient 3, a man who were discharged and healthy. Patient 4, discharged, healthy. Patient 5, is unclear I think, wether it survived or deceased. Edit, please correct me if I'm wrong, it's very important that we don't spread false information regarding this. Edit 2: There seems to be four, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219441.shtml

Yes, it should have been stated explicitly; three fatalities are reported in the study. The forth was reported in the media [0]. Female, 34 years old, no history of chronic disorders.

[0] https://www.nrk.no/innlandet/helsearbeider-pa-tynset-dode-ti...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#989

Post by splithalf »

base698 wrote: post #314
splithalf wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything in life has potential epigenetic effects! Not sure what you are trying to communicate with your comment but it sounds like you are saying people should avoid the mRNA vax but then you also say “almost certainly no long term effects.” Your thesis seems to be that 10 years is enough time to know for sure that they are safe. Why is 10 years the right amount of time? Why not 50 years or 5? In other words what’…

50 would certainly cover all life stages of humans. I assume you could be sure with shorter. I have an aviation, biochem, and skydiving background. My rule is for aviation: "if it hasn't been out five years you're a test jumper." Humans are way more complex than airplanes. I personally wouldn't take the mRNA vaccine because of this rule. Coupled with being unable to sue or get help from the government I think people…

So let’s say hypothetically that white people were low risk relative people of color. You would have white people not get vaccinated because the consequences for their group, alone, might be slightly better?

Does that not seem a bit ... immoral?

I assume you eschew all other medical advances that are less than 50 years old? Would you eschew remdesivir? Sorry for the questions but thinking such as yours intrigues me and I want to grasp the logic behind it. Why not avoid all new technology for 50 years? Getting vaccinated seems to me like the logical and moral thing to do, but maybe I’m overlooking something.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#990

Post by javagram »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #473
javagram wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. Hundreds of young and healthy people have died from Covid-19. The risk is “basically zero” but so is the current known 1 in 7 million risk of dying from this blood clotting.

Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy." Even then, let's assume they were. COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others. Directly getting a vaccine is not. It's like saying X% of people riding in cars will be in accidents and die. Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't apply to you if you don't ride in a car in the first place.

> Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy."

25% of those who died under age 21 had no pre-existing condition, according to the CDC analysis. https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/15/75-of-youths-who-...

I believe the data does support my statement that hundreds of young and healthy people have died from covid. The risk is close to zero, yes, but still greater than the reported risk from this vaccine.

Close to 3000 people ages 25 to 34 have officially died in the USA from covid-19. If the same 75%/25% division the cdc found for under 21 applies to this group, that’s 750 young and healthy people who died so far just in the age 25-34 age group.

> COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others

Huge assumption. Many workers need to work in person and are going to be exposed. Many others live in a home with someone who is an essential worker, or doesn’t believe in covid being dangerous or taking precautions.

It really isn’t fair to blame everyone catching covid today and say they could have simply avoided it. Also, getting a vaccine is absolutely avoidable. No one is being forcibly vaccinated right now.

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