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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#971

Post by sph »

sebastiennight wrote: post #795
sph wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Be fearful when others are greedy". Greed is at an all-time high, so be careful. Whether that means buying or selling or staying put is for you to decide.

Any advice that confidently ends with "but whether you do A, B, or C, is for you to decide" can generally be safely avoided. This is providing 0 bits of guidance.

True, but so is financial advice on the Internet. There is no answer to 'what should I do with my money today', and anyone that claims to have one either is stupid, lying or trying to scam you.

The only valid advice here is to be careful because the economic climate is unstable, and it's not the time to make rash decisions.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#972

Post by Vecr »

FeepingCreature wrote: post #710
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Absolutely nobody is forcing retirement accounts to buy S&P.

Is there something up with your Twitter account?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#973

Post by rhubarbtree »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #861
AJRF wrote: post #514

If I buy the SpaceX stock it's 100% certain to go down. If I don't buy it it will rocket to the moon. Is there some sort of way I can positively monetise this?

I think it's actually 100% certain to go up no matter what, at least in the near term. In today's market, it doesn't matter what a company is worth or how much money they make or lose. All that matters is what global attention share they make up. How many people are thinking about them at any given time. Money flows where attention goes.

Yeah, I think it’ll go up for this reason. I will not be buying any shares, the company is insanely overvalued and hides terrible businesses. Elon is better the farm on AI in space, and if that doesn’t work things will not end well. Problem is, it reads as a post-hoc rationalisation not a long term plan.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#974

Post by rhubarbtree »

d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

Western debt is one of those problems you look at and say “this looks extremely alarming, why is no one panicking?” And then you assume that the elite know better and it must be manageable.

And then one day the consequences finally hit and you’re left reading the news “oh, so it turned out I was right and it was just common sense. Huh.”

US economy is screwed. UK economy is screwed. Neoliberalism killed it.

The reason everyone in politics is so elated by AI is the hope that a huge boost in productivity shrinks the debt as a portion of GDP. Talk about a wing and a prayer.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#975

Post by shakesbeard »

olalonde wrote: post #228
threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

I can give some recent examples. - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer. - Using it daily for Chinese-English translation. Significantly better than pre-LLM translation software. Also, great at teaching grammar, nuances, etc. - General Q&A. Like "Googling" but much faster. This is probably the most common use case for me.

What a lot of folks are struggling to understand (myself included) is how this actually reflects on the quality of life?

You're more productive? Nice ... for you or your business/employer? Do you also get more free time out of it? With all this free time you could actually travel and do a language school for 3 months. That sounds like an improvement in quality of life to me. Not better translations in that language.

The life of my family (we have a good life) hasn't become significantly improved with LLMs. We still struggle with the same problems as before. These companies don't solve the big problems of societies and that's why I feel like their value is not justified.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#976

Post by Arn_Thor »

bluGill wrote: post #680
Arn_Thor wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?) Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down. > Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios wil…

> Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. Maybe, most indexes do not have to follow the index. they just need to match the returns. An index fund manager has choice of what stocks to buy. However an index fund doesn't have enough managers to make many choices and so they normally buy just what is in the index. However all index fund managers know they are la…

The problem is, if you deviate too far from the index, your head is on the chopping block. There is no incentive to outperform the index, and every incentive to not meaningfully underperform it. Anyone bought into an index fund expects exact index performance (whether or not the prospectus technically allows for deviation).

So any manager who values his pay check will say "the index may go up, may go down. The investor's paper wealth may increase or decrease. That's not my problem! And in a market like this, I risk underperforming if I don't own this asset. So of course I'm going to buy it!"

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#977

Post by kortilla »

sharts wrote: post #863
jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> The valuations of these companies are probably on the high side and I'd expect post IPO share values to drop quite a bit and would not personally consider buying anything until after that happens. The problem is that you ARE buying them precisely at the high IPO prices if you have retirement/pension funds that are invested in market indexes.

Nope, you’ll be buying at whatever the price is several days after the IPO. This could easily be below IPO prices as has happened with many other companies.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#978

Post by itake »

joquarky wrote: post #942
itake wrote: post #673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want to buy SpaceX, not Twitter, Tesla, xAI. Unfortunately Elon has been conflating the three.

I remember when the music industry would release albums with one good song and make you buy the crap instead of selling the single at a lower price.

and the 2008 crash's mortgage backed securities...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#979

Post by kryogen1c »

jmuguy wrote: post #744
mawadev wrote: post #727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no crystal ball, but I feel uneasy when they change basic rules about indizes right before these IPOs. There are a lot of retirements on the line just by this fact. Maybe big tech gambled too close to the sun and found a way out? Whether something pops or not, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth this can be done so easily, don't you think?

This is it entirely. I don't really care if the pessimists or optimists or somewhere in between ends up being correct. What possible reason is there to change the rules around the indexes unless these companies and their backers know that time in the market is going to expose that they're overvalued and they want to force someone else to be holding the bag when that happens.

Is it possible SpaceX is not massively overvalued and delaying its index approval unnecessarily slows its economic output by needlessly restricting its access to funding, harming us all collectively?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#980

Post by FeepingCreature »

Vecr wrote: post #972
FeepingCreature wrote: post #710

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely nobody is forcing retirement accounts to buy S&P.

Is there something up with your Twitter account?

Retirement accounts have to passively invest, but not in S&P500 specifically I think. I'm sure there will be passive funds that don't adapt the rules change.

edit: Google informs me that you can change the stock allocation in your 401k at any time.

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