US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#971

Post by hdivider » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC

Ntrails wrote: post #918

tristanj wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No chance. A nuclear strike on Iran won't achieve anything that a large number of conventional strikes would.

My real question is not whether it would achieve anything meaningful, but what would be the side effects of such a strike on allies in the region. I don't have a remotely decent mental model of fallout etc from modern nuclear weapons - my assumptions are they're still toxic enough to be a bloody terrible idea anywhere near someone you like.

I think the main concern would be escalation, e.g. Netanyahu feeling emboldened to use his weapons too. And of course Putin, to try to shock Ukrainian forces and population (good luck).

Alliances might get reshuffled as everyone realizes they need to reassess their nuclear defense and deterrence. It would fundamentally change the nature of modern warfare, not for the better. Let us hope this never happens.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#972

Post by cleaning » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 8:43 PM UTC

keepamovin wrote: post #490

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

I can’t accept the theocratic tyrants who implement terrorism, execute their own people and slaughter them as they protest remain in charge. They should be forced out of power. I wonder if the US had struck when momentum was high during the popular uprising, it could have being self sustaining, with arms and logistics setup to feed the resistance advance.

Your post is ambiguous until the second part, FYI. In this conflict, it's a good idea to be clear on which nation you are talking about from the start.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#973

Post by andyjohnson0 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC

Report Card:

USA, #1 world power, nukes etc, failed to win. Iranian regime wasn't destroyed, and the HE uranium is still there. Two carrier battle groups weren't enough to re-open the straits. Burned $45bn and achieved nothing much.

Iran, fourth-rate regional power, failed to lose. Regime still in power, and still has its HE uranium. Oil infrastructure intact. Military knocked-about a bit, but still capable of controlling the straits and bringing in the $$$. They get to keep brutalising their frightened population.

Israel, premium regional power, suddenly all on its own running a hot, two-front war with no easy exit, because Trump cut and ran. Netanyahu is probably toast in the upcoming elections, which means hes going to jail for all the corruption stuff.

China, mega military power, picked the right side and comes out of it clean. Looks like a model, dependable global citizen. Access to the oil without paying the $2m/boat straits fee. Didn't blow $45bn on nothing.

Russia, third-rate power on the way down, made some roubles on the oil price thing, but still has all the same problems as before. Meatgrinder war. Economic and demographic collapse still imminent. Global pariah, except for Orban and Erdoğan and the Belarus guy. Putin's getting pretty old.

EU+UK basically sat it out. Sensible. Much economic damage though.

Thousands of dead/wounded/traumatised adults and children -- a running sore that shames us all. Plus all the victims of the Gaza and Lebanon wars. Deep, deep anger for multiple generations. Revenge, etc.

----

Officially its a ceasefire, but everyone knows the US won't restart after this. Its six months to the mid-terms, and the genius orange guy in Washington has other things on his mind. And Epstein is still hanging around like a bad smell. What to try next?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#974

Post by mrguyorama » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 9:58 PM UTC

Invictus0 wrote: post #876

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Only on hacker news is the destruction of all your military hardware and the death of all your leaders a win

Buddy France lost it's country and still won WW2

It's the war, not the battle.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#975

Post by a456463 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #843

Unicironic wrote: post #283

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

It is possible to deplore the human cost, while also looking at the reasons why such conflicts occur, and what the goals of those involved are.

The reason of the conflict being a lunatic and spineless supporters.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#976

Post by Yoric » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 10:25 PM UTC

roncesvalles wrote: post #658

Yoric wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.

We are in an era of clickbait; mainstream media tends to be sycophantic to the views of its readers.

FWIW, this was the title around 6am. By 8am, they had changed it to something a little bit more respectable.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#977

Post by vkou » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 10:34 PM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #313

andrepd wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran is a shell of the threat it was a month ago. That's why it is crippling the entire world's economy and demanding concessions bigger than the status quo ante bellum, with the US powerless to stop it. Because it's no threat.

> 90% destruction of military is meaningless if 10% can wreck havoc on the strait. The cost associated with eliminating that 10% was deemed too much. That is Iran’s “win”.

The winner of a war is not the side with a bigger K/D ratio, it's the side that accomplished its objectives.

Objectively, the US has in every respect backslid on its objectives compared to a month ago.

Iran, on the other hand, went from not controlling the strait to controlling the strait.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#978

Post by Hikikomori » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

1234letshaveatw wrote: post #960

kumarvvr wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contrast it with the JCPOA by Obama https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/joint-comprehensive-p... Key Aspects of the JCPOA: Enrichment Limits: Iran capped uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years. Centrifuge Restrictions: Reduced operating centrifuges to 5,060 IR-1 machines for 10 years. Stockpile Restrictions: Limited enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg for 15 years. Facility Redesign: Redesigned the Arak heavy w…

What an awful failure that agreement was. Iran accepted the sanctions relief and ignored the terms of the agreement.

They didn't, they followed it with very minor discrepancies ,until US left it and applied sanctions.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#979

Post by smcnc » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 11:13 PM UTC

anthonybsd wrote: post #870

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

>impotent threat of attacking ships Seeing diehard MAGAs in these comment threads is always so amusing. Clearly Agent Orange didn't think the threat was impotent if he crawled on his knees to negotiation table hastened by dire predictions of impending economic collapse but you somehow think it was "impotent" ? Astonishing :)

We’re both #DudesForKamala

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#980

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 12:37 AM UTC

ghywertelling wrote: post #149

idle_zealot wrote: post #80

We already attacked Iran twice during "talks," is there any indication that we mean it this time, or are we just going to bomb them again while negotiations are ongoing?

I have a Naive question, "why aren't the discussions related to public matters be telecasted live like a football match to the whole world? why isn't the public privy to the discussions about its own future?"

[deleted]