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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#971

Post by phatskat »

dripdry45 wrote: post #696
mrguyorama wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had Israel friendly politicians for at least 50 years, all of which who eagerly wanted to fuck up Iran ("Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" anyone?) and we didn't because they were at least sober enough to understand that it was moronic and would obviously be some sort of strategic defeat or decades long boondoggle. No president has ever been this fucking stupid.

Look, if the goal over the last year has been to destroy America, it’s economy, it’s reputation… you basically couldn’t pick a better set of actions. It seems pretty obvious that they’re trying to turn America into Russia. Crash everything, and let the oligarchs swoop in and buy up the shattered pieces. Then keep the people divided and depressed using media and drugs.

This has been the (largely) conservative playbook for decades, at least since the religious right took over, it’s just being borne out in a much more direct way. The old model was “claim that public institution X is bloated/corrupt/ineffective/evil and replace it with private company Y”. The current admin has done away with any table dressing and just flat-out collapsed entire departments - the furloughs, replacing department heads or essentially forcing them to step down on moral grounds, gutting and stacking the justice system, DOGE…this has all been synonymous with the right’s playbook for a long time.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#972

Post by theonething »

donkeybeer wrote: post #964
theonething wrote: post #962

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As I said you beautifully ignored who started the conflict, it hardly began on Oct 7 In 1947, the UN passed the United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine. It called for a two state solution, one for the Arabs and one for Israel. Britain supported it, the Jewish Agency supported it. Everyone supported it with the exception of, you guessed it, the Arabs. The Jewish were willing to compromise. Arabs, nope. https://e…

The King David Hotel bombing wasn't started by arabs, it occurred much before the 48 date you have given. Its clear who started shit. I wasn't talking about Netanyahu coming from Irgun but two other past prime ministers. >From the river to the sea Its very pleasing you quoted this slogan. And you accuse me of being biased? Do you know which Israeli political party's slogan this is? Tell me, is this fake news: https:/…

> The King David Hotel bombing wasn't started by arabs, it occurred much before the 48 date you have given. Its clear who started shit.

So you're saying since it was the Irgun that bombed the Hotel, it's the Jews who started the Arab Israeli conflict.

Dude, get your facts straight. The 1946 Hotel bombing was against the British, not the Arabs. British administrative headquarters were housed in the Hotel and that was who the Irgun was targeting.

Read up and educate yourself before you speak: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing

If you want to go back before 1948:

The Battle of Tel Hai (March 1920): Often cited as the first military confrontation between Arab and Jewish forces. It involved a clash between a Palestinian Arab militia and Jewish defenders of the Tel Hai settlement. It started when a Shiite Arab militia and local Bedouin, led by Kamal al-Hussein, entered the Jewish settlement of Tel Hai.

The 1920 Nebi Musa Riots: In April 1920, Arab residents attacked Jews in the Old City of Jerusalem during a religious procession.

The 1921 Jaffa Riots: This started as a scuffle between two different Jewish groups. Arab onlookers mistook it as an attack against Arabs and started attacking Jews.

"Dozens of British, Arab, and Jewish witnesses all reported that Arab men bearing clubs, knives, swords, and some pistols broke into Jewish buildings and murdered their inhabitants, while women followed to loot. They attacked Jewish pedestrians and destroyed Jewish homes and stores. They beat and killed Jews in their homes, including children, and in some cases split open the victims' skulls."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaffa_riots_(May_1921)

And they are still doing that today.

The 1929 Hebron Massacre: Prompted by rumors that Jews intended to seize the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Arab mobs killed 67 Jews in Hebron.

And again, you cherry pick some far right people and project them on to all of Israel. And you totally ignore the fact that early on the Jews were willing to compromise with a two state solution, but the Arabs were not willing. Today, 75% of Palestinians support the murder, rape and kidnapping of festival attendees, families and children. That plainly shows what kind of people they are and why Israel needs to defend itself.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#973

Post by theonething »

donkeybeer wrote: post #965
theonething wrote: post #962

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As I said you beautifully ignored who started the conflict, it hardly began on Oct 7 In 1947, the UN passed the United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine. It called for a two state solution, one for the Arabs and one for Israel. Britain supported it, the Jewish Agency supported it. Everyone supported it with the exception of, you guessed it, the Arabs. The Jewish were willing to compromise. Arabs, nope. https://e…

>When you have a group who's ideological goal has always been to exterminate the Jewish people and Israel, Israel must defend itself. The locals didn't particularly give a shit about israel or jews until European jews began forcibly displacing them en masse. Jews lived there for centuries, sometimes treated better sometimes worse than Christians in Europe treated them.

> European jews began forcibly displacing them en masse

You'll need to support your claims with evidence or else they are just worthless.

The fact is Arabs were not willing compromise on a two state solution that Jewish Agency agreed to. (Balfour Declaration and the UN Partition Plan for Palestine).

The fact is currently, the majority of Palestinians want Israel exterminated. They still will not compromise with a two state solution. They just want to murder more Israelis.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#974

Post by mdnahas »

tptacek wrote: post #177
johnohara wrote: post #72

The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The most important aspect of the "toll" is that Iran prefers payment in yuan, not dollars. If Iran succeeds in nationalizing the Straight and is successful in enforcing the toll, it represents a very serious threat to the dominance of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency for trading energy.

Seems pretty unlikely that the Yuan is going to be the dominant world currency, given its capital controls.

Economist here. The more likely short-term replacement is gold. Not as the reserve currency, but as the currency for denominating trade.

The US has raised tariffs erraticly. Traders seek out a good that can be traded anywhere with predictable low costs and that is gold. So, demand is rising and, if it continues, trades may be denominated in gold.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#975

Post by don_esteban »

DoctorOetker wrote: post #970
don_esteban wrote: post #938

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see the following technology replacing motorcycles for communication: (works up to 20-30km, a bit more if needed) a) preinstall your fiber optic cable between points A and B (say AA platforms that need/want coordination for distributed passive/multistatic tracking of intruders) b) when it is torn, send a fiber optic drone from A to B and use its line to replace the torn one (those are flying in Ukraine with bom…

Right, but those are realistic engineering considerations. Nowhere in your message do you describe light-speed motorcycles. You didn't arrive at this conclusion thanks to a light-speed motorcycle thought exercise...

I was not talking about light-speed motorcycles. That was an artifact of imperfect war simulation.

The relevant concept is undetectable (by electronic surveilance) communication usable for tactical warfighting. Real life motorcycle messengers are a partial (detectable, high-latency) solutions for which there are currently (not at the time of that war exercise) better options (e.g. the one I presented).

You can nitpick that due to imperfection of the exercise (allowing red team to use light-speed motorcycles) the whole result of the wargame was compromised. To which my answer is: That is a nitpick, real-life offers the red team enough options to achieve the same results without relying on physically impossible feats.

Most recent example: Isrealis are learning to cope with fiber optics drones in the southern Lebanon, to great detriment to their Merkavas.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#976

Post by leonidasrup »

triceratops wrote: post #951
leonidasrup wrote: post #945

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No energy technology is perfect each has it's benefits and drawbacks. Yes a nuclear power plant more expensive than solar power plant. But an electric grid based on renewables, if we add the costs for storage, backup generator, power lines upgrades needed for smoothing out regional variations of production, is more expensive (or it can be cheaper if you have access to cheap natural gas, Texas power grid). https://doi…

> But an electric grid based on renewables, if we add the costs for storage, backup generator, power lines upgrades needed for smoothing out regional variations of production, is more expensive Show your work. I'm telling you right now you're wrong. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45446112 Even the Texas power grid makes heavy use of wind and solar. > So stockpiling few years worth of fuel is not a problem Weird…

Texas Net Electricity Generation by Source, 2025

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Texas

Natural gas (40.5%) Coal (12.7%) Other fossil (1.01%) Nuclear (8.47%) Renewable - Wind (23.2%) Renewable - Solar (13.7%) Other Renewables - Hydro, Biomass (0.18%)

Texas has access to cheap natural gas, which is used when renewable don't deliver. In Texas the price is king.

> Big Oil. Sorry.

I would really prefer high world-wide carbon tax. World-wide because cheap Chinese poly-silicon production for cheap PV is an excellent example of carbon leakage.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09596...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_leakage

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/4/18/1533104...

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#977

Post by appointment »

lmm wrote: post #752
cbsmith wrote: post #709

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't exactly limit the impact of cutting off the supply. It's a global trade market. If China buys on the global market from other places instead of Iran because that oil isn't available, that still creates a shortage for everyone and that still pushes up the price of oil for everyone.

Sure. But the US has substantial domestic production. So China (and everyone else who has to import the majority of their oil) gets hurt more.

The US oil companies will export their oil to China (or Japan, South Korea and other major oil importers, in lieu of oil bought by China.)

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#978

Post by frrlpp »

Dig1t wrote: post #920
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's huge sums of money flowing through our political system and effectively buying our politicians I disagree strongly with this assertion. But for sake of argument, let's assume it's true: American politics is permanently captured to Israel's interests. That still doesn't explain this war. "I think most folks understand that this war was a misfire for the United States, but I suspect it may end up being a terribl…

That is why this conflict is so interesting and momentous, this is a fundamental change in the Middle East. Israel had 2 major opponents remaining the region: Iraq and Iran. We invaded Iraq and regime-changed them at the behest of neocons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_C... >Calls for regime change in Iraq >Shortly after the September 11 attacks, the PNAC sent a letter to President George…

Three: Turkyie comes next.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#979

Post by lmm »

appointment wrote: post #977
lmm wrote: post #752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. But the US has substantial domestic production. So China (and everyone else who has to import the majority of their oil) gets hurt more.

The US oil companies will export their oil to China (or Japan, South Korea and other major oil importers, in lieu of oil bought by China.)

At a minimum that will reduce the trade deficit.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#980

Post by donkeybeer »

theonething wrote: post #972
donkeybeer wrote: post #964

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The King David Hotel bombing wasn't started by arabs, it occurred much before the 48 date you have given. Its clear who started shit. I wasn't talking about Netanyahu coming from Irgun but two other past prime ministers. >From the river to the sea Its very pleasing you quoted this slogan. And you accuse me of being biased? Do you know which Israeli political party's slogan this is? Tell me, is this fake news: https:/…

> The King David Hotel bombing wasn't started by arabs, it occurred much before the 48 date you have given. Its clear who started shit. So you're saying since it was the Irgun that bombed the Hotel, it's the Jews who started the Arab Israeli conflict. Dude, get your facts straight. The 1946 Hotel bombing was against the British, not the Arabs. British administrative headquarters were housed in the Hotel and that was…

Why not, I cite these far right figures because these far right figures were instrumental in the creation of your country, and are still revered by many including officially.

The Irgun was targeting many things, they were of course ingrates who hated the Brits that had gifted their own colonial land to these frauds for free, but they were also conducting terroristic operations against arabs. It's all very simple really, Israel was doing tactics that were morally acceptable in the 1800s but had fallen out of fashion by mid 19th century. It's vety simple, just answer this. Where are the upto 3 to 4 previous generations of most current Israelis from. Are they from the Levant or are they from Europe? And if Europe, did they migrate peacefully to an existing country or take over lands someone else was living in?

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