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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#971

Post by jackp96 »

ajam1507 wrote: post #887
greekrich92 wrote: post #871

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the year of our Lord 2026 and people are still making personal responsibility pitches to fix the CO2 levels which haven't been seen in 300 million years

What would you have them do instead?

Not OP, but my understanding is that voting for politicians who prioritize more sustainable policies and advocating for industry regulation to cut down on things like single-use plastics (or promoting EV use/infrastructure build outs) has a much bigger impact than recycling or not flying.

I (unfortunately) just don't think it's pragmatic/reasonable to expect enough people to make personal sacrifices/reduce QOL to make a dent. It's a tragedy of the commons, and we need some form of reasonable regulation to cut down on the worst offenders (probably carbon taxes) while we invest heavily in improving the technology so it makes financial sense to switch.

Renewables have come so far in the past decade and are now competitive with fossil fuels in terms of pricing. As the technology continues to become more efficient and cheaper, we'll likely start to see significant drops in emissions in addition to cheaper energy.*

*Assuming the US elects a rational adult to the presidency in 2028.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#972

Post by bjourne »

timr wrote: post #901
bjourne wrote: post #894

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your summary of the article is wrong. The authors model temperature using time series over solar irradiance, volcanic activity, and southern oscillation. They calibrate that model using time series over global surface temperatures. This allows them to isolate and remove each of the three listed confounding factors. The resulting time series fits a super-linear curve -> accelerating global warming.

> Your summary of the article is wrong. The authors model temperature using time series over solar irradiance, volcanic activity, and southern oscillation. They calibrate that model using time series over global surface temperatures. This allows them to isolate and remove each of the three listed confounding factors. No, it isn’t. You’re just rephrasing what I said with more words: they attempted to adjust for three…

Actually, I used fewer words. I don't think you understand what the authors are doing. They are modeling temperature T per year as a sum of four terms: T = E + S + V + R---(E)l Nino, (S)solar irradiance, (V)olcanic activity, and (R)emaining factors. Then they subtract E, S, and V. Then they show that R fits a super-linear curve. Why there would be no "statistically valid way" to do this is beyond me, the authors, and the article's peer reviewers. If this is "bad methodology", lodge your complaints on https://pubpeer.com/.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#974

Post by iLoveOncall »

DeepSeaTortoise wrote: post #938
iLoveOncall wrote: post #897

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is already so much ahead in some aspects. I'm literally in the plane flying back from Shanghai right now, where cars have blue plates for petrol cars and green plates for electric ones. Easily 70% of the cars on the road are electric, and basically all of the scooters used for deliveries. The roads are so quiet it's sometimes dangerous because you don't hear the scooters come behind you. They'll undoubtedly be…

Isn't Shanghai a Tier 1 city? IMO it's not very representative of the whole country. It's also not like China is an overachieving outlier, but western nations actively having been sabotaged by its leadership at least since 1990 and MUCH MUCH more so since occupy wallstreet. FFS Germany is blowing up its nuclear powerplants on a never before seen record breaking schedule so that a potential successor government cant r…

Yes but it was the same in the two Tier 1.5-2 cities I also went to.

Obviously it's not the whole country, but it's setting a trend still, especially when it's always the richest who pollute the most per capita.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#975

Post by assaddayinh »

jihadjihad wrote: post #510
notarobot123 wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, those still unconvinced of the human influence on climate change seem to be the sort that would trust the basement randos more than they would reputable scientists

Because they are practicing the reverse scientific method. They hold a conclusion in their hand, like, man-made climate change is a hoax , and seek to find any threads of "evidence" that support their foregone conclusion.

[dead]

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#977

Post by epistasis »

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #930
epistasis wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For non-specialists, I think the most important view on papers is to not view them as nuggets of truth, but communications of a group of people who are trying to establish truth. No single paper is definitive! Peer review is an important part of scientific publication, but it's also important for the general public to not view peer review as a full vetting. Peer reviewers look for things like reproducibility of the a…

Sometimes reviewers also look for whether the paper cites enough of their own papers, who is publishing it (regardless of whether the review is supposed to be anonymous or not), whether it clashes with a paper they're about to publish... science is just as full of politics and corruption (if not more) as any other field.

I almost added "place the research into the context of other relevant research" as another way of saying "cite enough of the peer reviewer's papers" but fair enough.

I'm not sure if science has as much corruption as other fields, but it definitely has politics. PIs get to their position without the typical selection process for leadership that happens in most larger orgs, so there's more fragile and explosive personalities than I find in other management/leadership positions.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#978

Post by rcbdev »

afandian wrote: post #767
dang wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, we've changed the URL from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/389855619_Global_Wa... to what that doi.org link redirects to. Is it better now?

Cool, thanks. I approve! In a pure world everyone would use DOIs to refer to published literature. This would give two benefits: first, always link to the current version. Second, be a persistent identifier for the content. But HN isn't a specialist scholarly content platform, so it's practical to link to the landing page.

And what about countries where URNs are the identifier of choice? In my perfect world, we'd ban DOIs entirely from academic conduct and use only URNs respectively.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#979

Post by jtr1 »

Aerroon wrote: post #771
jtr1 wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"But the economy" is an out-of-date framing. The cost of renewables has been plummeting for well over a decade. New renewables are now cheaper than new fossil fuel plants in most of the world, and in many regions they're already competitive with or cheaper than simply running existing fossil fuel infrastructure. As modern wars in Ukraine and now Iran are increasingly demonstrating, they are not only cost effective bu…

> "But the economy" is an out-of-date framing. Then why is my electricity and gasoline both so much more expensive than they used to be?

For many possible reasons, depending on where you live.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#980

Post by cbeach »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #875

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) outline draft has listed making new and significant progress in building a Beautiful China as one of its main objectives, with achieving the carbon peaking target on schedule being a crucial aspect of this goal. In 2020, China made a commitment to the world: to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Last year, China announced…

I've always found it odd that the Paris Accord allows China to keep building coal powered stations when it is already the leading global contributor to climate change:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-...

Meanwhile the Paris Accord seems to bludgeon Europe and America (who are reducing their CO2 emissions significantly), with the net effect of accelerating the deindustrialisation of the West (thus helping industry grow in China).

The Accord should focus on moving industry away from China to countries where electricity predominantly comes from renewables.

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