Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have a link or article title for reading about the dropping of tbills
The scary part is that it has been scrubbed in many sites https://www.ft.com/content/0005e091-930d-46ff-9e81-8591704a9...
Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
971–980 of 1001 posts
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#972"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…
Just four hours before the U.S. administration announcement, posts here were already calling the surge in U.S. bond yields a "non-event." ( and being flagged..) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43630672 It was indeed about T-bills. Something Trump probably doesn't even know what it is. There’s no strategy, no objective, just sheer, unfiltered incompetence. The stock market’s reprieve will be short-lived. In just…
"Trump economic advisor says bond market added ‘a little more urgency’ to tariff decision" - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/china-trump-tariffs-live-upd...
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#973Earlier quoted context omitted.
I still wonder why this was not done instantly by EU. US has an imbalance on goods that was used to calculate the tariff amount, but it has the opposite imbalance on service from what I've read
How would it work? Say an American multinational like Microsoft provides some SaaS. They have a division in Europe where their developers help make their products. They have offices, customer support, servers, etc. in Europe. Do they pay a partial tariff based on what fraction of the development of their software happened in the US? What if they sell the rights to the European version of their software to their Europ…
It would need to be a tax on money transfer to the American counterpart. Cash repatriation or payment for IP rights comes to mind.
Of course, the multinational could also use the funds to invest in Europe, build warehouse or commercial real estate or acquire European startups. I think they already do this to some extent to avoid US tax.
Using these to fund free credits to European cloud providers could be a good way to build up a local alternative. I think we underestimate the importance of free credits in the reliance on the 3 US hyperscalers, especially for startups.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#974Does someone know how companies handle these short-term changes of tariffs? Like, when your shipment from oversees eventually arrives, a 50% tariff is due that makes your entire accounting unprofitable, e.g. a contract with another party to sell it to might already been signed. Do the companies usually ensure against these kind of things?
I think this is risk og doing business.
I can, as shown, also go the other way, where tarrifs are removed under shipments.
Regardless, the core is exactly that people don't send things overseas in this environment.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#975Same guy recommending what the US should do:
https://bsky.app/profile/dieworkwear.bsky.social/post/3lmb6y...
In short he argues that there is no point in making $50 chinos. Similarly to Italy, the US should focus on regional branding and high-end artisanal products.
I would argue that ship has sailed under Trump. The US was in a prime position to brand itself via soft power and the media, and now it's actively being boycotted.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#976Earlier quoted context omitted.
Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?
> Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? Since I'm one of 'those people' who's been willing to grant Trump some benefit of the doubt in the past, I'll respond with my take. tl;dr Trump's handling of the tariffs have been such disaster, there's simply no possibility it was based on a strategically sound p…
Is it possible that Trump is just a stupid person? That he genuinely believes the tariffs will be good, that he's being influenced by stupid people (Navarro) that believe this, and that the reaction of bond markets that didn't follow his overly simplistic model made him hit the brakes?
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#977"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…
> Instead of being seen as a safe haven, U.S. debt itself started to look shaky There's also a more basic answer to why US debt got more expensive. There is no such thing as a "trade deficit". You cannot import something without exporting something else. That something else, in almost 100% of the situations, is dollars. What do you do with dollars, if there's nothing you want to buy? You buy debt. So, every trade def…
Boomers really fucked on the economy to Sunday didn’t they?
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#978VIX is still at 35%. We are still in quite unstable territory, just not insanely unstable.
I didn't know about VIX ("volatility index" I presume from a quick Google), thanks for posting this.
Interesting(?) that the only two previous spikes higher than the current one are COVID and the 2008 GFC.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#979Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seems they reversed course on that. Or, they don’t know what they’re doing. > It's been a confusing day. > As Verity said, it turns out Canada and Mexico are not getting a new 10 per cent tariff after all. > The White House reversed its earlier announcement in a new statement just now. Here's the bottom line: No new developments for Canada and Mexico today. > That means there are still worldwide 25 per cent tariffs o…
They know what they are doing. The goal is decoupling from China. They raised tariffs on everyone to see which countries stood with US and which stood with China. Once each country has made their allegiance clear, they delay the deadline to give more time for negotiation. They likely want every ally to raise their tariffs on China to be very very high, to avoid any more transshipping from China.
They are gambling that the rest of the world aren't going to coordinate against USA, let's see
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#980Is it just the historical legacy of international trade that tariffs apply only to physical goods, but not to something like software-as-a-service subscriptions, digital media, or intellectual property? As the latter categories are more representative of US exports, it would surely be an interesting escalation if other countries were to start including them in their “retaliatory” tariffs.
Enforcement will be the issue here.
If I order physical goods from a foreign nation it's gonna have to somehow get into my hands, and can be withheld until i pay tariffs
If a irish subsidiary invoices me subscription prices for intangible services, there's no way in the current legal world to enforce a tax on my end