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I wish GPT4 had never happened

chaudhry.notion.site

971–980 of 1001 posts

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#971
post #883

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So forcing people to either get a job or be poor is for their own good, then? Just because you don't agree with how people chose to spend their time in a very nerve-wracking situation? This sounds very condescending.

Work and purpose is good & a necessity. I'm suggesting through large cultural observation, many are poor at finding purpose in anything besides work and become destitute and negatively influence themselves. A large number of retirees find themselves in this bucket as an example - if it happens there, why would it not happen no matter the life stage?

As a fellow pessimistic person, I'd like to share the idea that obstacles are not the end, they just mean one needs to be look harder.

I hope to switch you a bit from problem-finding to problem-solving mode.

You have identified some risks, great! Now let's qualify and find solutions for theses in order to move forward. For instance: - assumptions check: young people adapt quicker than older people, so the retirees may not be representative of the others life stages - solution proposal alpha1: education could teach people to look for purpose instead of teaching them a job

What are your solutions to the issues you've raised ?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#972
post #60

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

That would be great. It’s also not going to happen without a massive uprising. The people profiting off automation have zero intent of sharing the wealth and every intent of hoarding it.

We were all fine with having a bunch of pretty poor people around us (let alone other countries where people live horrible lives). Why should anyone care white collar people are going to get hurt? Who said we have enough power/motivation to meaningfully revolt?

Why haven't the poor revolted already?

I hope you're right but I don't think its a given this will happen.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#973
post #961

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am currently reading the late Daly’s 2014 book “From Uneconomic Growth to a Steady-State Economy” that seems to address exactly your concern for a more fairly distributed economic system. A real eye-opener that would require us to change three things to build a more sustainable economy and future: (1) stop fractional reserve banking and nationalize money again to avoid the very quantitative easing/tightening fiasco…

I am sorry but fractional reserve banking isn't the problem, nor is debt based money the problem. You can't solve the problem without allowing interest rates to be negative when people want to pay off their debts at a faster rate than people wanting to spend off their credits/deposits. The problem is quite simple. Money has no maturity but debt has a deadline. This asymmetry causes problems regardless of whether you…

I don’t think Daly is suggesting to move away from debt as an instrument in his work, only to establish a 100% reserve system for commercial banks, including the Fed. He was suggesting to nationalize money supply via the Treasury, to avoid bank runs and fiascos like they happened just now to CS and SVB.

Apparently, this was already the direction of thought among some economists in the 1920s (like Frank Knight and Irving Fisher), but then got overruled by the eternal growth mindset that evolved during the Great Depression (which Daly claims leads to “uneconomic” growth). Printing money as an instrument should very much be available - but only to the Government/Treasury.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#974

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Better distribution is through capital tax, not income tax. Taxing workers even more is the opposite of sharing productivity gains captured by shareholders. Are capital gains and dividends taxed at least at 70% in Sweden?

1. Salary is your company's money that becomes your money. 2. Capital tax is tax on your company's money. 3. Income tax is tax on your money. With either tax, the economic system that consists of you and your employer is being robbed. Speaking of which, if someone takes your groceries and runs, just before you have paid for them, that is shoplifting. If it's just after you paid, it's robbery. You might think you're b…

>With either tax, the economic system that consists of you and your employer is being robbed

Except differences in tax rates will have significant impact on what type of income people want to earn. If personal income is taxed lower than capital, then people will want to increase their income through work.

If personal income is taxed higher than capital, people are incentivized to build more machines than the economy needs and this will put people out of work.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#975
post #956
post #809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m open to suggestions, at the end of the day it’s what works that matters, it’s just that every other system ever tried is minimum an order of magnitude worse. I’m not particularly a fan of the ‘red in tooth and claw’ brand of capitalism in the US. It’s a bit raw for me, but undeniably very dynamic. Meanwhile in my lifetime capitalism has raised hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into solidly middle…

The problems with the Chinese brand of capitalism and the USA brand of capitalism is that both are called capitalism and the general public hasn't developed a better language for debating the nuances of each. If anyone dare say that the USA brand of capitalism is imperfect, they're automatically assumed to be a communist (I'm not even kidding - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35497892 ), which totally misses all…

> The claim that it's capitalism that has raised hundreds of millions of people out of poverty is a common one, but it's our technology that's advanced.

The main factor there was economic liberalisation in south east Asia. Mainly China of course but not only. There was nothing inevitable about that, it was a political decision. The Soviet Union didn’t do it, North Korea didn’t do it, but China had Deng Xioping and he did do it. He or someone else could have easily gone a different way. My wife is Chinese and I’ve visited frequently in the last 20 years and seen the transformation for myself. My wife’s family there are among those who went from grinding poverty to a comfortable lifestyle owning several properties with 2 cars.

Owning properties privately, in China, before Deng that would have been unimaginable. My wife’s sister even owns shares. It’s capitalism gone mad.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#976

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean I think that's with every system a problem. Not just ours. This doesn't mean that different economic systems have equivalent or comparable problems. Just like you can have a worse economic system than today's global capitalism, you could, in principle, have better systems.

Capitalism is not an economic system, it is a description of fundamental economics. Countries can have a highly regulated form of capitalism where trade and ownership is strictly controlled… and they’re often called socialist or communist, or a laissez faire system. However, so long as people are using land, buildings structures, designing equipment… the laws of capitalism will apply.

>Capitalism is not an economic system, it is a description of fundamental economics

Silvio Gesell has developed an economic system inspired by Darwin. I don't mean social Darwinism, I mean that he deconstructs the economy down to self preservation and group preservation instincts which are biological necessities.

Self preservation is necessary to survive. A biological organism that does not self preserve will be selected out. This means that self preservation instincts represent egoism.

You might now say that this is the end, capitalism has won, except there is also group preservation.

Group preservation requires self preservation as a prerequisite. If you cannot meaningfully self preserve, you will most likely contribute nothing to group preservation as there aren't many situations where dying outweighs the cost of raising a member of the group.

This means self preservation instincts play a significant role all the way until they start threatening group preservation.

An organism that exclusively specializes in self preservation would always be a lone wolf with no socialization. The problem with this theory is that it would imply subsistence which is the opposite of capitalism. In other words, capitalism cannot be the result of simple egoism and self preservation because people would simply leave the capitalist society for the sake of self preservation if it were to become too stressful.

Thus there must be a significant group preservation instinct in humans and they have been evolved to survive in groups. In other words, capitalism has to leverage group preservation instincts somehow and therefore it is just another flavor of socialism or communism except in favour of people with capital.

Now, you can take it too far and entirely rely on group preservation instincts like communists claim but that doesn't work in practice either as self preservation overrides group preservation. Only people who have their basic needs met can engage in altruism.

Thus you can't expect a society consisting exclusively of altruists or egoists. Instead you would expect evolution to hit just the right balance between the two and that would imply the absence of both capitalism and socialism. It means both are an aberration that cannot be explained biologically.

Yes, that would imply that people can choose to participate in a market economy but it doesn't mean they have to and market economies don't have to be capitalist.

>Capitalism is not an economic system, it is a description of fundamental economics.

Theoretical economists have no concept of capitalism except maybe Keynes. In classical and neo classic economic theory there is no such thing as "capitalism". In theory it doesn't exist. There is a market economy with zero coercion and it does not intrinsically favor capital. You can't get richer through unfair means or corruption in these models either.

The gaps between the model and the real world are then filled with dogma and ideology. For example, you can just say that a positive return on capital represents a voluntary high time preference even if the return is higher than what would bring the economy into equilibrium.

The real world starts exhibiting cycles that make no sense in the model, meh. Let's claim capitalism is a constant of the universe even though biological dynamics imply the opposite.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#977
post #772
post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that anyone today thinks that any other economic system we’ve ever tried is any better than the one we have is a damning indictment of our education system.

The fact that USA's brand of late-stage capitalism is even considered capitalism is an even more damning indictment of our education system. Somewhere between Feudalism and Karl Marx, Adam Smith is spinning in his grave. How much we don't have capitalism and are living, globally, under an oligopoly, replete with robber barons in tech clothes; one can only laugh at. The amount of misery under "capitalism" says there's…

Proto capitalism is what lead up to feudalism. The Roman empire didn't have modern capitalism with banking, company shares and insolvency but what they did have is a silver/gold standard with debt bondage. Debt bondage is still a thing in Pakistan and the dynamic is exactly the same. You borrow a little money, the interest payments become overwhelming, you are forced to work on behalf of the creditor who can decide your wage and the interest rate.and whether they pay you in food and shelter or in money. There is no reason why they wouldn't abuse this power.

You see it all begins very benign. A farmer has a bad harvest. He needs to bridge over this year until the next harvest. So he borrows money with interest. When the next harvest fails then he becomes unable to pay and is forced to sell his land and perversively, hired to work on his own land. He has functionally become a serf. All it takes is for this to spread to the rest of society and you end up with feudalism.

In other words, feudalism is what happens when proto capitalism is exaggerated to an extreme extent.

If you were to exaggerate modern capitalism I am not sure what would happen. Maybe hyperinflation, maybe world war 3, maybe a reform of the banking system, maybe mass starvation or maybe a revolution or maybe modern feudalism except serfs aren't allowed to own intellectual property or shares in companies.

So no, I don't think the problem is that we don't have capitalism. We clearly have more capitalism than we want or need. Robber barons are an intrinsic part of capitalism.

The answer is a market economy without capitalism. I don't even see why anyone would care about capital obsession in a free market anyway. That sounds inherently autocratic. At some point in the capital accumulation process one person owns the entire economy, how does that not make them a monarch eventually?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#978
post #809
post #772

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that USA's brand of late-stage capitalism is even considered capitalism is an even more damning indictment of our education system. Somewhere between Feudalism and Karl Marx, Adam Smith is spinning in his grave. How much we don't have capitalism and are living, globally, under an oligopoly, replete with robber barons in tech clothes; one can only laugh at. The amount of misery under "capitalism" says there's…

I’m open to suggestions, at the end of the day it’s what works that matters, it’s just that every other system ever tried is minimum an order of magnitude worse. I’m not particularly a fan of the ‘red in tooth and claw’ brand of capitalism in the US. It’s a bit raw for me, but undeniably very dynamic. Meanwhile in my lifetime capitalism has raised hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into solidly middle…

Mayor Unterguggenberger introduced a demurrage currency in Wörgl during the great depression before WW2. He "printed" 10000 shilling worth of Arbeitsbestätigungsscheine (work confirmation coupons). The coupons are valid until a certain period, then you have buy a stamp and glue it on. This approximates a -5% interest rate. People didn't hoard the coupons and the town accepted them for tax payments. The town was out of debt within a year and unemployment has shrunk by double digit percentages. The depression was effectively over and all it took was the equivalent of food stamps/unemployment benefits except transferrable between businesses and consumers with a demurrage fee.

The system doesn't have to be adopted by every business or citizen. For instance, 10% of unemployment benefits could be paid out as a demurrage currency with tax acceptance and you would see large scale welfare benefits with almost no burden on the general population. The only burden of this system is juggling two different currencies and an insignificant 5% annual fee on the issued demurrage money supply. If pay out 10% of unemployment benefits or 15 billion dollars it would only cost 750 million dollars in the liquidity fee and that is assuming the money doesn't immediately go back to the government for tax payments at which point the costs keep shrinking and shrinking.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#979
post #772

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that USA's brand of late-stage capitalism is even considered capitalism is an even more damning indictment of our education system. Somewhere between Feudalism and Karl Marx, Adam Smith is spinning in his grave. How much we don't have capitalism and are living, globally, under an oligopoly, replete with robber barons in tech clothes; one can only laugh at. The amount of misery under "capitalism" says there's…

I’d say this AI and all those that follow are children of capitalism. It’s all about consolidating power and wealth as quickly as possible. Now we’re in an AI arms race. Sounds terrifying? It is. America might tear itself apart if it doesn’t slow down a bit. Right now, there’s no one behind the wheel.

If it is really as bad as people say then my future business will have more customers.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#980
post #781
post #766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who said anything about knowing any good alternatives to the current system that could be switched to? If it was that easy, some country would have done it already, and they’d be winning the OECD. I think the suggestion is rather that we are morally compelled as a society, to invest real effort into inventing something new to replace neoliberal capitalism. States could, for example, be sponsoring experiments to valid…

Economic experiments are going on all the time. Basic income, profit sharing, kibutz, all sorts. It’s not as if every western country is economically identical either. Neoliberal capitalism runs the spectrum from America to Scandinavia, via France. One of the major advantages of neoliberal capitalism is it’s not exclusionary of alternative forms of economic organisation. It can exist very well alongside state capital…

Demurrage currencies face significant legal problems that hinder their adoption.

It isn't impossible but who in their right mind would give 10 million dollars in funding to start a bank to end capitalism?

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