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My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

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Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#961
post #932

I tend to agree with the gist of this, namely that the change is here and "AI" presents some huge potential to save me from having to do the tedious stuff. But we do need a bit of a sanity check. I'm in the middle of trying to convince any of the AIs that I have access to to write me some simple Lua. Specifically, I'm trying to write a query that returns a certain subset of pages from the Silverbullet V2 note tool. T…

Don't you think the AI might too, if you passed it the API docs?

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#962
I want to skip all the debate and just have someone tell me what setup I need to get to here:

> Kids today don’t just use agents; they use asynchronous agents. They wake up, free-associate 13 different things for their LLMs to work on, make coffee, fill out a TPS report, drive to the Mars Cheese Castle, and then check their notifications. They’ve got 13 PRs to review. Three get tossed and re-prompted. Five of them get the same feedback a junior dev gets. And five get merged.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#963

I think this article is pretty spot on — it articulates something I’ve come to appreciate about LLM-assisted coding over the past few months. I started out very sceptical. When Claude Code landed, I got completely seduced — borderline addicted, slot machine-style — by what initially felt like a superpower. Then I actually read the code. It was shockingly bad. I swung back hard to my earlier scepticism, probably even…

I agree with the potential of AI. I use it daily for coding and other tasks. However, there are two fundamental issues that make this different from the Photoshop comparison.

The models are trained primarily on copyrighted material and code written by the very professionals who now must "upskill" to remain relevant. This raises complex questions about compensation and ownership that didn't exist with traditional tools. Even if current laws permit it, the ethical implications are different from Photoshop-like tools.

Previous innovations created new mediums and opportunities. Photoshop didn't replace artists, because it enabled new art forms. Film reduced theater jobs but created an entirely new industry where skills could mostly transfer. Manufacturing automation made products like cars accessible to everyone.

AI is fundamentally different. It's designed to produce identical output to human workers, just more cheaply and/or faster. Instead of creating new possibilities, it's primarily focused on substitution. Say AI could eliminate 20% of coding jobs and reduce wages by 30%:

    * Unlike previous innovations, this won't make software more accessible
    * Software already scales essentially for free (build once, used by many)
    * Most consumer software is already free (ad-supported)
The primary outcome appears to be increased profit margins rather than societal advancement. While previous technological revolutions created new industries and democratized access, AI seems focused on optimizing existing processes without providing comparable societal benefits.

This isn't an argument against progress, but we should be clear-eyed about how this transition differs from historical parallels, and why it might not repeat the same historical outcomes. I'm not claiming this will be the case, but that you can see some pretty significant differences for why you might be skeptical that the same creation of new jobs, or improvement to human lifestyle/capabilities will emerge as with say Film or Photoshop.

AI can also be used to achieve things we could not do without, that's the good use of AI, things like Cancer detection, self-driving cars, and so on. I'm speaking specifically of the use of AI to automate and reduce the cost/speed of white collar work like software development.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#964

I think the key premise here is that one can effectively and efficiently audit code that the LLM is producing. I doubt that. First, human attention and speed is very limited. Second, when I see something, I am already predisposed to assume that it is right (or at the very least, my subsequent inquiries are extremely narrow and anchored around the solution I have seen presented to me.)

Exactly. And even if LLMs become more accurate and qualitative better, it just raises the costs for validation. Errors and bad design decisions become harder to spot.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#965
post #312

This article does not touch on the thing which worries me the most with respect to LLMs: the dependence . Unless you can run the LLM locally, on a computer you own, you are now completely dependent on a remote centralized system to do your work. Whoever controls that system can arbitrarily raise the prices, subtly manipulate the outputs, store and do anything they want with the inputs, or even suddenly cease to opera…

You think an LLM provider has a bigger moat than an IDE (say pre vs code for a better parallel). MSDN and Jetbrains licenses are far more expensive than Cursor or Windsurf.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#966

Title nitpick: The amount is people who care about AI for coding assistance is a relative minority. For everyone else, there's 'AI', which has a huge branding problem. 'AI' is filling all search results with trash, and creating trash websites full of trash to fill up the rest of the search results. It's generating trash images to put at the top of every blog post. It's eating up all the server load with scraping. It'…

AI has a huge branding problem on HN but I haven’t found that to be true outside of tech.

Many people are very eager to see how AI can improve their lives.

I’m building a product for accountants that uses AI, initially I avoided using AI as a part of marketing copy. Turns out, people are much more interested when I tell them it uses AI behind the scenes.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#967
I feel silly asking, but is this reality or hyperbole?:

> An agent can occupy itself for hours putzing with your tests in a VM and come back later with a PR.

> Kids today don’t just use agents; they use asynchronous agents. They wake up, free-associate 13 different things for their LLMs to work on, make coffee, fill out a TPS report, drive to the Mars Cheese Castle, and then check their notifications. They’ve got 13 PRs to review. Three get tossed and re-prompted. Five of them get the same feedback a junior dev gets. And five get merged.

I'm working better and harder with Roocode in Code mode (and somtimes Architect). I've only been doing it for a few weeks, and it reads to me like I'm already using an 'old approach'.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#968
post #800

It's fascinating how over the past year we have had almost daily posts like this one, yet from the outside everything looks exactly the same, isn't that very weird? Why haven't we seen an explosion of new start-ups, products or features? Why do we still see hundreds of bug tickets on every issue tracking page? Have you noticed anything different on any changelog? I invite tptacek, or any other chatbot enthusiast arou…

So as an example of what this could look like that would be convincing to me. I started out pretty firmly believing that Rust was a fad.

Then Mozilla and Google did things with it that I did not think were possible for them to do. Not "they wrote a bunch of code with it", stuff like "they eliminated an entire class of bugs from a section of their codebase."

Then I watched a bunch of essentially hobby developers write kernel drivers for brand new architecture, and watched them turn brand new Macbooks into one of the best-in-class ways to run Linux. I do not believe they could have done that with their resources at that speed, using C or C++.

And at that point, you kind of begrudgingly say, "okay, I don't know if I like this, but fine, heck you, whatever. I guess it might genuinely redefine some parts of software development, you win."

So this is not impossible. You can convince devs like me that your tools are real and they work.

And frankly, there are a billion problems in modern computing that are high impact - stuff like Gnome accessibility, competitive browser engines, FOSS UX, collaboration tools. Entire demographics who have serious problems that could be solved by software if there was enough expertise and time and there were resources to solve them. Often, the issue at play is that there is no intersection between people who are very well acquainted with those communities and understand their needs, and people who have experience writing software.

In theory, LLMs help solve this. In theory. If you're a good programmer, and suddenly you have a tool that makes you 4x as productive as a developer: you could have a very serious impact on a lot of communities right now. I have not seen it happen. Not in the enterprise world, but also not in the FOSS world, not in communities with lower technical resources, not in the public sector. And again, I can be convinced by this, I have dismissed tools that I later switched opinions on because I saw the impact and I couldn't ignore the impact: Rust, NodeJS, Flatpak, etc, etc.

The problem is people have been telling me that Coding Assistants (and now Coding Agents) are one of those tools for multiple years now, and I'm still waiting to see the impact. I'm not waiting to see how many companies pick them up, I'm not waiting to see the job market. I'm waiting to see if this means that real stuff starts getting written at a higher quality significantly faster, and I don't see it.

I see a lot of individual devs showing me hobby projects, and a lot of AI startups, and... frankly, not much else.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#969
post #800

It's fascinating how over the past year we have had almost daily posts like this one, yet from the outside everything looks exactly the same, isn't that very weird? Why haven't we seen an explosion of new start-ups, products or features? Why do we still see hundreds of bug tickets on every issue tracking page? Have you noticed anything different on any changelog? I invite tptacek, or any other chatbot enthusiast arou…

Simply put, if we’re living during such a major technological revolution, why does using software suck in such disastrous ways that were unthinkable even ten years ago?

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#970

Here are two routine problems I have to solve at the moment. Can any of the current LLM systems do either? 1. Input is an 256x256 pixel elevation map stored as a greyscale .png file, and a minimum and maximum elevation. A pixel value of 0 corresponds to the minimum elevation, and a pixel value of 255 corresponds to the maximum elevation. Read in the .png file and the elevation limits. Then construct a 256x256 floatin…

This is a great example.

Supposedly, you know something about this problem. If you use an LLM to craft a solution, that's probably fine since you'd know how well you did.

I know nothing about this problem. I could use an LLM to delude myself into thinking that I do. Should my boss be very happy about that? They probably shouldn't

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