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Trump wins presidency for second time

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961–970 of 1001 posts

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#962

Who would have thought sneering at half the voters, taking voter groups for granted just because of their demographics, running the country with a senile out-of-touch leader (while denying this self-evident truth), replacing him at the last minute with totally bland careerist politician, basing their campaign on vibes of "joy", crying wolf, insulting the voters on the other side you instead needed to attract, and bei…

Okay, how do you attract the side that thinks you're a subhuman and deserve to be jailed at best or at worst killed?

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#964

It's the economy, stupid: -Inflation is not prices; it is the rate of change in prices. Low inflation doesn't imply low prices. -Aggregate statistics don't necessarily explain individual outcomes. The Dems failed on this count massively, and have, for maybe the last 40 years, which is about the amount of time it took for my state to go from national bellwether (As goes Ohio, so goes the nation) to a reliably red stat…

I may be completely wrong, but I see a lot of talk in terms of how the Dems failed to be elected.

I'm thinking more about how the Reps succeeded in being elected.

That, far as I can tell, is through Trump lying through his teeth in the most incredible manner every time he speaks, and people who are ill-equipped to see through it being deceived.

I have to think it's hard to compete with that, if you're not lying yourself.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#965
post #963

"Republican voters relying on friends and family more than traditional news media for their election news." https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/11/06/trump-voters-news-d...

This is actually an excellent technique. Your friends act as filters of the noise and negativity, and only the important bits reach you.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#966
This is a massive indicitment of our country. We get what we deserve.

Voting based on perception, not facts, especially given Trump's overall character and abhorrent track record, is going plunge us further into far right extremism. Enjoy.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#967
post #751

incumbents all around the world have performed terribly post COVID. UK, Canada, Japan, France, Italy, have all had landslide or shocking election results. Unsure what the general mood is that can lead to Keir Starmer dropping 30 points in approval months after winning in a landslide, but the mood of general discontent may be relevant in the United States as well. It seems whatever the status quo / incumbent advantage…

India being a notable exception. Modi got re-elected for a third term, although with a smaller majority.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#968

Today we learned that immigration is more important for Americans than even abortion, so much that 3 states didn’t even codify it.

This is one of the biggest issues the Democrats have with messaging. They turn everything into a black or white issue. You're either completely for something 100% or you're against it when most Americans want something in the middle.

The issue isn't immigration, it is massive amounts of illegal immigration. Some form of vetting is necessary to keep gang members, murderers, rapists, and extremist terrorists from entering the country. Nearly everyone in this country either is descended from immigrants or is a first generation immigrant themselves, but they just want a controlled legal process to occur.

Same with abortion. Trump's official position on abortion is that it isn't a federal issue, it is a state issue. This is much more nuanced than for and against. Conservatives have wide ranging beliefs on this issue. There are some that are 100% against it and some that believe it should be banned after X number of weeks. Many also believe that there should be exceptions for medical necessity, rape, and incest. There are complicated ethical, moral, and religious issues that surround these beliefs. At what point does a fetus become a human? No one really has a great answer to that question.

Another issue is gun control. If you believe strongly in the Second Amendment most Democrats are unpalatable on this issue alone. Kamala Harris has in the past stated that she supports a ban and confiscation of AR-15s, as you can imagine this went over poorly for a very significant portion of the electorate.

Bottom line however, I agree with many others here that the economy is the biggest thing that won people over to Trump. Even if it is completely out of Trump, Biden, or Harris's control, most people in this country felt like they were better off financially under the Trump administration and they voted accordingly.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#969

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

People who are saying "the polls were wrong" didn't look at them carefully enough.

This is a retweet of Nate Silver's analysis showing that the most probable outcome, with nearly a 25% chance, was Trump sweeping the swing states. Yes, added up with all the other possible outcomes, the race was very close, but this was still the most likely outcome, and by a large margin: https://x.com/LPDonovan/status/1854265746601488727

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#970

Do we need to allow parties to put up multiple candidates and implement ranked choice voting? would that help us with outcomes like these?

This would actually make third parties a real threat and force Dems/Republicans to stop villainizing each other. Everyone voting out of hatred for the other side means a popular 3rd party candidate would be everyones 2nd choice.
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