Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea • Hacker News Board

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#961

Post by euroderf » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:21 PM UTC

driggs wrote: post #723

some0x80070005 wrote: post #688

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve heard somewhere between 300-400 kilograms gas per second. The pipeline has already been shut off for weeks, but it’ll take days for all the gas that’s already in the line at elevated pressures to leak out. It’s an enormous amount of gas.

That's an insane amount of a very potent greenhouse gas. Seems like it'd be better to strike a match and flare it off as CO2 instead of methane, which has 80 times the greenhouse warming effect of CO2. Thanks!

Yes please. Why HAVEN'T they lit it yet ?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#962

Post by euroderf » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:22 PM UTC

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #484

swamp40 wrote: post #232

Russia was at a crossroads, and now there is no return. The boats have been burned and they must march forward.

My exact words to a friend earlier. Divide with Europe made manifestly clear. Burned the boats. Crossed the Rubicon. The die is cast.

The gas has been expelled. Look innocent and pretend it wasn't you.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#963

Post by upsidesinclude » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:23 PM UTC

thiagoharry wrote: post #578

yznovyak wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

It does sound like a propaganda story, having so many contingent factors and supposition.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#964

Post by euroderf » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:24 PM UTC

randomsearch wrote: post #884

politician wrote: post #765

It’s highly probable that this is a strategic response to Putin’s increasing rhetoric about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Yes. I think it’s the USA. They were furious about this pipeline and angry at Germany for their dependence on Russian gas. This turns Europe away from Russia and sends a strong signal. It removes a carrot Russia would wave to Europe. It’s under the cover of a messy situation. It sends a warning sign to Russia about nuclear weapons. The US could wipe out all energy exports and destroy the Russian economy without deplo…

A rogue CIA unit teaching Europe AND Russia a lesson.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#965

Post by hackerlight » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

foverzar wrote: post #927

hackerlight wrote: post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It possibly is in Russia's interests. If they predict that Europe is on the verge of successfully becoming energy independent and the demise of NS2 through non-sabotage means is all but an inevitability at this point, then it's optimal for them to use that sunk cost for their own benefit, in this case framing the Ukrainians or US in order to turn Europe against Ukraine or to fracture NATO an EU cohesion by stoking di…

The infrastructure isn't free. The gas flowing through it also isn't free. Years and billions were invested in that infrastructure. IMO, the sheer cost would make that an overly-elaborate spectacle.

That's literally the sunk cost fallacy.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#966

Post by segah » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:51 PM UTC

int_19h wrote: post #871

segah wrote: post #859

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not correct. Gas supplies are controlled by state-owned corporation. Putin and this corporation are one. There is no multi-factions within this organization. It is 100% under Putin's governance. If there was interest to cut supplies, they would have done this publicly. And they have the PR/Media to spin the story however they want. On the other hand, elites don't benefit from this gas supply. For example, it…

Gas already stopped flowing from Russia to Europe. The question now is if and when it'll be restarted. And yes, of course, for the peace faction to make use of it, they'd need to carry out a coup to remove Putin first, so that they are in control. That's precisely why it all adds up.

Nord Stream 1 was stopped. Gas is still flowing from Russia.

Anyways, the argument is actually more likely the opposite. Opposition was planning a sabotage. In anticipation, to downplay the impact, Putin claimed to punish Europe by stopping Nord Stream1.

It is a reactionary action.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#967

Post by throwaway29812 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 4:57 PM UTC

dongobongo wrote: post #129

brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

Europe already announced they weren't buying Russian oil, and Russia already announced they weren't going to sell it. The pipeline being functional, or no, seems inconsequential. The attack can serve propaganda purposes, however.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#968

Post by Amarok » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

UyERifyhDLWOf wrote: post #794

eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

The OP link goes to "forsvaret.dk" wich is the Danish military. I am a Dane. I think I may be able to offer a perspective on this that non-Danes will simply miss. While being a regular reader, for posting this I have created a new account that will not be used again. Please excuse me for being a bit verbose, as this is not simple: ONE First, I am not positive if this technically happened inside our territorial waters…

As an outsider, I still don't understand what this all hints at.

That the current Danish government was behind this to win the elections as the safer bet against Russian aggression?

That the US is behind this to justify a US base in Bornholm island?

How does the timing of explosions fit into all this? Specifically the Norway Poland pipeline coming online and Russian threats to NATO (implying nuclear weapons to defend occupied Ukrainian territories isn't a bluff).

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#969

Post by Fatnino » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 5:21 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #831

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like on any crime scene, who profits from the crime? Well, a few things first: 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany 2- The war is going to last for many more months (best case scenario) or a year or two or ... No matter how long it will really last, Europe, after having survived Win…

It's interesting you wrote a very long response and yet you presented no concrete arguments that the US could be behind this. We can agree that most EU countries will not support such an incident. The only two countries who have the technical capability and the political reasons are the USA and Russia. Both are evil and ready to blow the world for their own gains. > why would they take the risk to destroy the pipelin…

Anyone with access to either end of the pipeline had the technical capability to do this. Slip a time bomb into the pipe and have it get pumped out to sea before exploding.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#970

Post by smsm42 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 5:36 PM UTC

foverzar wrote: post #923

smsm42 wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pipelines can be fixed. If Germany behaves. There's always a choice. Also, there are other ways to get the gas and the oil there.

Can it? If the seawater had filled the pipeline, it is likely irreparable.

I don't think this is the case - when pipes are installed, they are exposed to seawater, and they are segmented, and there must be a way to replace the damaged segment without having to redo the whole pipeline. It won't fill the whole pipeline even if there's a hole in it.