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Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

cnbc.com

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Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#961

Post by jpcfl »

bmlzootown wrote: post #602
jpcfl wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is a futurist, and believes that without free speech, human kind is doomed. I agree.

The important question is this -- why does he believe those things? This is the same man that at one point tried to say that he was the founder of Tesla. Saying things that I agree with doesn't mean that I should inherently be in favor of said person doing X, Y, or Z.

> why does he believe those things?

Just look at the conditions in any society without free speech and you'll find your answer.

More abstractly, free speech is required for free thought. Without free thought, we're all thought prisoners to whomever controls the information we received. Musk's contention with Twitter is that they have been positioning themselves as that entity.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#962

Post by thisismyswamp »

parineum wrote: post #587
alephnan wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The argument is not that is worth more, it is that it can be worth more in the future than Musk offer. Then it should be priced for discounted future cash flow and value.

The disconnect between you two seems to be an understanding of what the price of a stock means. The stock price today represents what investors think the future value might be. The speculation that the dip will bounce back is built into today's price. The reduced price over the high represents the perceived risk that it won't return. Musk values the stock higher than the mean investor.

*higher than the highest-valuing person currently in the bidding list

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#963

Post by diebeforei485 »

ckelly wrote: post #934
diebeforei485 wrote: post #927

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the same as saying the market wasn't taking the offer seriously. > The whole "merger arbitrage" industry works around that premise. If the market price reflected the probability, then an arbitrage strategy should not be profitable. Usually, these folks have better experience/skills/knowledge about M&A, antitrust, etc than the market average. In other words, the market doesn't reflect the probability of an…

Yes, I wasn't commenting on the original "taking it seriously" language. > If the market price reflected the probability, then an arbitrage strategy should not be profitable > The market doesn't reflect the probability of an event happening. No, the market's implied probability could be right, on average, across all deals...and the top merger arb funds could absolutely still be profitable by selecting deals when they…

Yeah, I think we're in agreement.

Another point however, about the market voting that the Musk takeover won't happen - we can only speculate as to why they predict it won't happen.

It doesn't necessarily mean they think he can't line up the financing. It could just mean they don't think the board will accept his offer.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#964

Post by robbomacrae »

chippiewill wrote: post #811
robbomacrae wrote: post #355

Can't Elon just loan his money to some close acquaintances to buy 15% each in their name who will vote his way?

Elon doesn't actually have the cash on hand to buy 51% of the company at market rate (he could release the equity from Tesla or something, but that would be expensive), he wants to do a leveraged buy-out which means we wants to get some other investors to go in with him on the deal at the figure he outlined.

Yeah that is in the same ballpark as (and probably more on the money than) my suggestion. If he gets a few more big shareholders on his side then he could simply put in proposals and sway the retail investors into following.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#965

Post by TheGigaChad »

mike_d wrote: post #239
hedora wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, if some ETF accidentally exceeds 15%, then what? First of all, that'll screw over a bunch of small investors, right? Second, could Elon swoop in at that point? Edit: Also, if Elon is reading this, I'll happily buy 14.9% of twitter, and vote as part of your block. Just pay me enough to cover the sale and taxes, plus 1%.

> Edit: Also, if Elon is reading this, I'll happily buy 14.9% of twitter, and vote as part of your block. Just pay me enough to cover the sale and taxes, plus 1%. You might want to speak with a lawyer who is familiar with inchoate crime. What you publicly proposed to Elon is a crime, since you intend to conceal beneficial ownership of shares.

No post body was provided.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#967

Post by jpcfl »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #610
jpcfl wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is a futurist, and believes that without free speech, human kind is doomed. I agree.

He has actively suppressed the speech of others.

One, Elon Musk is not a social media platform.

And two, how?

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#968

Post by incomingpain »

UnpossibleJim wrote: post #105

So, I'm not very corporate savvy and this might be a very stupid question. Is there a NON-culture/political reason for all the push back against Musk buying Twitter? From the read, this just seem to be opening the door for someone else to try and take majority control and pining away for the days of Dorsey (which, if looked at objectively, weren't great... just filling an opportunity).

No post body was provided.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#969

Post by omegalulw »

sahila wrote: post #932
IshKebab wrote: post #786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the likelihood go up under his model? If Musk had only offered $35 and people thought that was only 20% likely to happen (for the reasons you listed) then the market price would have only gone up to $31.

Say I offer to buy Apple for a penny/share. The price for their shares won’t move because of my offer but may move from normal market conditions. If the shares increased a dollar the day after my offer, would you say there’s a greater than 100% chance of my offer being accepted?

There of course the implicit assumption here that Musk's offer is causally related to Twitter's stock price. OPs comment make sense if you keep that in mind.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#970

Post by bigodbiel »

memish wrote: post #903
nowherebeen wrote: post #830

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s important to also note that one of Musks strengths is marketing. He makes bold claims that makes headlines. We should be all used to his charade by now. A lot of the stuff he claims that actually works has teams of people supporting him. Those weren’t one man efforts like this.

I see Tesla cars all over the place. I saw rockets take off from SpaceX. What charade? Also he often publicly thanks, congratulates and credits the Tesla and SpaceX teams. Here's a sample: https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40elonmusk%20%22team%22... As you can see yourself, he's saying "great job team!" not "great job me!". I just don't get all these olympic level contortions around denying the achievements of an…

Unless this takeover is being conducted by M&A professionals, and not the result of wine and ambien, I think OP has a point.
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