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Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

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Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#951

Post by k33n »

bambax wrote: post #725
k33n wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are we waiting for. Responsible governance around something like when and how to retaliate (if at all) against tariffs comes down to one of the most fundamental forces of economics and trade: real leverage. Whether or not the US should exercise its leverage to attain outsized and favorable terms on the economic stage is the peanut gallery conversation that happens on social media. The two worlds couldn't be fa…

That's just not true. Geopolitics isn't maths, never has been, never will be. Maths is an input amongst many, and doesn't decide the outcome.

If you want to have the peanut gallery conversation, then you’re more than welcome to have it. It’s just not interesting. Leverage is all that matters here.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#952

Post by drunkan »

refurb wrote: post #869
bradley13 wrote: post #164

This is the way. If the US imposes tariffs, impose tariffs on US goods. The US administration twists facts to suit their agenda. For example, they often complain about the trade deficit the US has with other countries. However, that deficit often (depends on the country) only exists if you exclude digital goods (Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.). If the rest of the world were to restrict the import of those digital goo…

Canada's tariff's will be meaningless. Canada's GDP is 32% exports. Of that, 75% goes to the US, or ~25% of Canada's GDP or $1 out of every $4. US exports to Canada are 11% and 16% go to Canada or around 1.7% of US GDP. If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

You completely missed the point - these retaliatory tariffs are being rolled out strategically to protect vulnerable industries from one way tariffs not with the primary goal of hurting the us. You notice one is defensive and one is aggressive - different goals.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#953

Post by LowTechHN »

hunglee2 wrote: post #413

The world should've collectively recognised what Liberation Day was and responded together, in lock step, and in kind. Instead, the Europeans caved, Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so), Republic of Korea caved (PM resigned after doing so), India of course caved and so on, shattering any prospect of collective action which might pull the rogue hegemon back into line. Now, the US is simply able to renege or ren…

> Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so)

Look what happened to the last guy!

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#954

Post by behole »

jmyeet wrote: post #888
bawolff wrote: post #830

As a canadian, i'm so over this drama. They will either trade with us or they won't. If they don't it will be painful - but im happy with the government reciprocating in kind (so we arent being taken andvantage of), and then moving on as best as possible. At some point you have to stop worrying about the things you cannot change. If trump wants a lose-lose deal, so be it.

Unfortunately for Canada, you guys have screwed up. Why? Because you're completely dependent on the US for energy exports. All that oil you dig up and turn the landscape into the Moon for goes out via pipes to the US from where it's refined and/or exported. Canada has almost no oil export infrastructure of its own (meaning pipelines going to ports).

Product of propaganda

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#955

Post by brazukadev »

inigyou wrote: post #949
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe/Canada should ban chatgpt/anthropic and say "ok we will use chinese models for our vibe coding I guess" and watch the stock market implode overnight. Remenber when they tried to ban non-US citizens from using Fable? best to remove that sword of damocles now regardless

They would have to make a free chat interface that uses Chinese models. It isn't about the technical implementation, it's about the interface and the ease of use.

why? I'd bet there aren't that many people that would riot if they couldn't use chatgpt anymore.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#956

Post by brazukadev »

drunkan wrote: post #952
refurb wrote: post #869

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada's tariff's will be meaningless. Canada's GDP is 32% exports. Of that, 75% goes to the US, or ~25% of Canada's GDP or $1 out of every $4. US exports to Canada are 11% and 16% go to Canada or around 1.7% of US GDP. If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

You completely missed the point - these retaliatory tariffs are being rolled out strategically to protect vulnerable industries from one way tariffs not with the primary goal of hurting the us. You notice one is defensive and one is aggressive - different goals.

This doesn't matter much for a bully. In fact, it makes them angrier. I think Canada is doing the right thing tho.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#957

Post by savanaly »

bawolff wrote: post #872
savanaly wrote: post #847

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>so we arent being taken andvantage of For the last time...that's not how trade works! People who say this in this context mean well, but are committing the exact same category error/misunderstanding of economics that Trump and his supporters are.

It is 100% how trade works. Free trade for both sides = good for both sides. Lopsided deals where one side gets the free flow of trade but the other side gets protectionism = exploitative. What is the category error here? Where is the misunderstanding? If you really believed what you wrote, why do you think trade deals exist in the first place? What function do you think they serve?

>If you really believed what you wrote, why do you think trade deals exist in the first place? What function do you think they serve?

In an ideal world, we would have free trade between nations and no trade deals. In the real world, for various reasons, we have trade barriers. But those who wish to see more trade can fight fire with fire by carving out exceptions to trade barriers in the form of trade deals and making trade more free in that way. It's all political horse trading, none of it creates new economic value that wouldn't be there in a free trade regime.

But the important thing to note is that both imports and exports are good for your country; think of them both as technologies that convert between products at a favorable exchange rate. [0] Just because another country dampens the effectiveness of this technology in one way, why would you then respond by throwing out the technology altogether?

[0] Think I was first exposed to this idea of thinking of trade as a technology in that way by https://tradef20.classes.ryansafner.com/readings/Krugman-199..., section II/

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#958

Post by Marsymars »

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #301
bradley13 wrote: post #164

This is the way. If the US imposes tariffs, impose tariffs on US goods. The US administration twists facts to suit their agenda. For example, they often complain about the trade deficit the US has with other countries. However, that deficit often (depends on the country) only exists if you exclude digital goods (Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.). If the rest of the world were to restrict the import of those digital goo…

Europe/Canada should ban chatgpt/anthropic and say "ok we will use chinese models for our vibe coding I guess" and watch the stock market implode overnight. Remenber when they tried to ban non-US citizens from using Fable? best to remove that sword of damocles now regardless

I'm not a country, but on Monday I'll be enabling Kimi models for my company's GitHub Enterprise account, and encouraging our teams to use those for their coding tasks.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#959

Post by cmrdporcupine »

doodlebugging wrote: post #355
ricardobeat wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One would think so, but is that really true? Some numbers I just got: - the US imports 60-70% of its oil from Canada - 100% of the natural gas - 85% of energy imports - 25% of Uranium - 20% of all mineral imports, ahead of China - the Great Lakes hold >80% of the USA's fresh water - patrolling the almost 9000km border is mostly up to Canada Despite the size disparities, they run close to a trade equilibrium: US expor…

>- the US imports 60-70% of its oil from Canada In context, this only applies to oil that the US imports. That number means that of the oil that the US imports, 60-70% of it comes from Canada. The US currently produces more oil than any other nation. Your note should read "the US imports 60-70% of the oil that it imports from Canada" - 100% of the natural gas As mentioned above, this means that US imports of natural…

This is all true but the story is a bit more complicated because of the nature of the refinery configurations means that many of the refineries in the US are specifically geared for / dependent on the heavy crude that comes from Canada and are not set up for the light crude that comes from US domestic oil.

Major pipelines (e.g. Enbridge / Mainline / Line 5 etc system) also cross the border back and forth. Same for natural gas etc.

Like auto parts/auto manufacturing -- the whole system has been assumed in the past by economic decision makers to be a continent-wide system.

Trying to break that apart now is just trying to jam toothpaste back in the tube.

It would be an incredible multi-year economic disruption if Canadian oil and gas were to be turned off tomorrow. The bullshit "we don't need anything from Canada" line is beyond insane.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#960

Post by watutalkinbout »

627467 wrote: post #321
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe/Canada should ban chatgpt/anthropic and say "ok we will use chinese models for our vibe coding I guess" and watch the stock market implode overnight. Remenber when they tried to ban non-US citizens from using Fable? best to remove that sword of damocles now regardless

This has always been an option pre-AI (block MS, block Google, etc). They never done that before why would they do that now?

The US is not an ally.
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