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I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
951–960 of 1001 posts
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#952They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#953I feel like there's a bit of AI psychosis in this particular post. >"These are tools which burn vastly more tokens, but are also quickly becoming daily drivers for the work carried out by extremely well-compensated professionals." >"Somehow this fragment turned into headlines like Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify the money spent on AI tokenmaxxing, because the market for stories about AI failures remain…
What's the psychosis?
Hi simonw, can you write your thoughts (hivemind is yet to catch up with this idea), the idea of distilling a large Opus 4.7 model into a purely reasoning core with plugin like architecture (a programming sub-model, a literature submodel, a history submodel, a geography submodel). Why is Russian and Chinese data part of my model training process, its costs more to train and do inference. I want a core model and specialized models to which Core Reasoning model can talk to. This kind of innovation is what Mistral team should be doing. Is it fundamentally impossible to do?
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#954Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well in reality AWS will just host one of them and most companies will use that Like how snapchat kind of fell off because the feature could just be a subset of instagram It seems like it would just become a commodity like EC2
Snapchat is huge and growing
Totally, the stock is doing so well
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#955Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why on earth would AI labs be bragging about how little the product they sell actually costs them to make? You don't want to do anything that reduces it's perceived value to the user, that might make them less willing to pay for it. Also, inference costs are bound to go way down with more optimized architectures. GPUs are fundamentally not great at inference. No platform where the weights are streamed from a large po…
Because they can think more than one quarter into the future? Why on earth would someone adopt something into their core workflow that was fantastically unprofitable? Uncertainty and business don’t mix. Most people aren’t hype-eating bacteria that only care about maximizing their next paycheck.
Regardless of profitability there will always be multiple good LLM vendors as well as open-source alternatives (slightly worse but still pretty good). If one vendor fails then it's easy to switch your core workflow to a competitor.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#956Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not supposed to be logical, it’s an LLM evangelism blog that rarely, if ever, has any critical analysis that isn’t pro-industry. Read any/all of the other posts and you won’t find much skepticism but you will find a lot of shilling how great it all is.
308 posts on AI ethics: https://simonwillison.net/tags/ai-ethics/ 52 on AI misuse: https://simonwillison.net/tags/ai-misuse/ 149 on the unsolved challenge of prompt injection: https://simonwillison.net/tags/prompt-injection/ 40 on slop: https://simonwillison.net/tags/slop/ If you want an "LLM evangelism blog that rarely, if ever, has any critical analysis that isn’t pro-industry" there are plenty out there. I'm not o…
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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#957[flagged]
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#958They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
> That's a _huge_ shift. Most people I know cite +20%-40% velocity with these tools, against the actual work their company cares about doing. +20% speed for +20% spend isn't going to motivate a trillion dollars a year in spending.
20-40% sounds about right for me, today. Maybe 40-60% on a good day. But a lot of the reason it's not higher comes from harness gaps and org processes that haven't caught up.
All of that will get fixed with time.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#959I usually agree with Simon but I think he is overlooking an important factor. There is a lot of AI usage happening not because it shows benefits, but because the business has mandated its ubiquitous use. Companies having dashboards for token usage and rewarding people for using more tokens is a real thing. I just spoke with someone today who works at Microsoft and they are required to use AI for all of their work - t…
I think token leaderboards are idiotic, however… many companies are requiring AI use, with by far the most likely reason being that they truly believe AI-assisted development gets (or will after the time needed to get employees acclimated) better returns.
That mere belief by companies is not enough on its own to substantiate durable market fit. Companies believe all kinds of silly things. We're looking for long-term trends, and the returns have to be real for AI development to be more than a dream companies will eventually wake up from.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#960Discovering that Enterprise customers tolerate higher prices compared to retails consumers is discovering demand elasticities not PMF. Am I missig something?