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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

cnbc.com

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#951

Post by rsynnott »

jmward01 wrote: post #617

Why does the market like this? Tariffs are in place and unpredictability is now the norm. Tomorrow something new crazy will come out and then the next day and the next day. Even if US markets like this right now, the long term damage has been done. Betting on the medium-long term seems questionable at best.

> Why does the market like this?

It doesn't; S&P500 is now at like 5400 vs nearly 6200 a couple of months ago. It's just that it is clearly not _as_ bad as it was earlier in the week.

And honestly you'd wonder how much this is being held up by confused retail traders; looking at WSB, say, many of them seem to think that tariffs are back where they were a few weeks ago (they're not; the 10% thing is staying, and of course there's China).

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#952

Post by rsynnott »

mfitton wrote: post #633
snarf21 wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, just maybe, this is all about a secret wealth transfer.

Do you think normal people (think, your average investing American) are trading based on this news? They probably shouldn't be... I would think that by far most of the trading these past few days has been institutions, so, a big transfer from some financial institutions to others?

> Do you think normal people (think, your average investing American) are trading based on this news?

We ~know that they were: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-market-pummeled-401k-acco...

As always, normal people sell low and likely buy high (I'd bet that a lot of the already-fading market euphoria yesterday was retail trading).

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#953

Post by belter »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Just four hours before the U.S. administration announcement, posts here were already calling the surge in U.S. bond yields a "non-event." ( and being flagged..)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43630672

It was indeed about T-bills. Something Trump probably doesn't even know what it is. There’s no strategy, no objective, just sheer, unfiltered incompetence.

The stock market’s reprieve will be short-lived. In just eight days, this administration erased $5 trillion in market value, insulted its primary trading partner using language deeply offensive in Asian cultures, and made it clear to investors that it has zero credibility.

Futures are already negative, which is exactly what you'd expect. The market is responding. And let’s be honest: the claim about 75 countries eager to negotiate is a pure lie. The EU has publicly stated the U.S. administration was not even returning their calls.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#954

Post by rsynnott »

Vivtek wrote: post #38

Threaten people with a 49% national sales tax, and suddenly they celebrate when it's only 10%.

Thinking of tariffs as a _sales_ tax, while it seems to be quite popular on this 'ere orange website, is both incorrect and very dangerous. Sales taxes, generally, are paid by the final consumer. Tariffs are paid at point of importation. This makes a big difference; if your factory makes, say, computers, sales tax impacts the (consumer) cost of the computer, but tariffs impact the cost of _all of your imported components_.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#955

Post by seydor »

immibis wrote: post #930
seydor wrote: post #54

I wonder if the stock markets will learn to disregard the US president for the next 4 years

Serious question: what's with the wave of utterly stupid comments on HN? Is it yuppie college grads working in silicon valley startups who have always had a thick abstraction layer between them and the system that gives them their paycheck? Is it trolls? Is it lifelong diehard contrarians (the same thing as trolls really)? Is it something else?

you re asking a stupid comment for a serious answer, that's not very smart

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#956

Post by rsynnott »

ein0p wrote: post #439

Art of the deal. 10% seems "reasonable" to everyone now. That was not the case a week ago. Meanwhile a bunch of overleveraged stock market buffoons were taken to the cleaners.

10% doesn't seem reasonable to anyone. Note that markets are still drastically down.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#957

Post by throw0101d »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

> From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

The "executive branch" is Trump. Everyone else is just running around making up excuses for whatever his last decision was.

The "goal" is whether Trump feels like (not) having tariffs and whatever value he feels they should be.

There is no "they": it's just Trump (or maybe whomever he last spoke to that could change mind).

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#958

Post by fifilura »

One thing that makes me curious.

Pennsylvania unemployment rate is 3,4%.

In the EU you commonly see unemployment rates around 10% and that is even after rather massive reeducation programs.

Why is this seen as such a big problem that these 3,4% pretty much get to decide the entire US policy?

In the EU that would be a great number and mostly normal considering that people that switch jobs or just finished studying or are just generally unemployable is counted towards that numer.

https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/newsroom/pennsylvania-s-unem...

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#960

Post by tim333 »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

That seems to be confirmed by el presidente:

Bessent said the decision had nothing to do with the markets.

“This was driven by the president’s strategy,” he told reporters outside the West Wing. “He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along."

Trump later contradicted Bessent.

“I was watching the bond market," he said. “That bond market is very tricky.”

(https://www.yahoo.com/news/week-trump-pushed-global-economy-...)

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