> Are you serious?
I am
> You can massively criticize Bitcoin and still invest in it, precisely because you understand the risk
But that degree of complex thought seems impossible to most geeks: for them, things are either good or bad. It's a very black and white thinking.
> Sorry, but what hubris?
The belief that my opinions about a technology are better than the market evaluation of said technology is just hubris. Clearly, you don't have it, given what you said above. You and me are lucky. Not everybody is.
By talent or by luck, you can be more often right that wrong, or the opposite called "harbinger of doom" in marketting [the ipod "lamer than a nomad" on Slashdot and BTC "no future" on HN makes me think nerds are such harbinger of doom!]
However, it's not 100% of the time. You must keep in mind the possibility you may be wrong. You do. I do. Most people don't. They succumb to magical thinking. It keeps them poor.
> The fact that some people got rich is meaningless because that happens with gambling and lotteries as well
The fact is was predicted, and there are more future testable predictions (flow-to-cash) invalidate this point. It's more like buying tickets to lotteries where, due to the jackpot value, the EV is positive. It then makes sense to buy as many tickets as you can, inducing friends and family to the scheme. Some people became quite rich that way. Of course, it entails risk, as nothing is guaranteed. So you should just invest what you can afford to lose.
> > These negative people are the reason may bright minds will remain chained to a day job at a FANG selling ads and dopamine, instead of really innovating.
> Is this supposed to be a joke? FANG employees with 6 digit salaries who are earning more than enough to afford stocks?
It's not a joke. Try to understand the difference between people working in FANGs and me: they yearly pay is funny money to me, something I did spend before just for the lol of watching a market crash after having too many drinks.
> I said I am not poor but that doesn't change that there is still a huge gap between me and someone who earns $200k per year at that salary
You feel the huge gap between you and them? I feel it too, except in the opposite direction. And even with our slight differences in opinions, I believe we agree more than you think.
> the effort and risk needed to increase your wealth is so low that any dead horse can become financially independent
Exactly this!!
They have to work hard. I don't, money works for me. I'm sufficiently diversified that, barring a WW3 style event, I will not have to care about money ever.
Hell, I don't even care if crypto will keep booming, as I'm out. I give a hand to a few projects here and there, but that's it.
Now I'm studying biology because it's fun and I have time to occupy. Some people worry about a postdoc after their studies, or finding a job? It's like they are from a different world: if I want, after I'm done studying, I will start a lab and hire people to work on stuff I find interesting - and just with funny money I would blow anyway. No need of VC or anything.
This is the difference between sellings ads at a FANG and being really innovative: taking control of the narrative and the destiny. Making changes in the world.
And it is extremely sad to find myself in that position, after having seen many people I believe more deserving than me stuck in jobs. I tried to tell them. They didn't listen. They didn't use their rationality. They let their fear of high variance in price discourage them from even trying to edge their bets.
> The real sadness is that people think that Bitcoin is the solution to economic problems.
The sadness is that it's available for anyone to benefit, yet most people won't - because they don't understand what a profound change of system it entails, and how deep the changes will be. They don't update their beliefs.
Everybody lucky to be alive today can buy just $1,000 of BTC, and be assured to have enough money get a very nice car in a few years. It's not much (sorry, you had to be an early adopter) but in the US, that's still enough to lift someone to middle class, as a working car increase work opportunities.
Someone at a FANG making 200 times that amount per year could certainly save more, say 20k, and get a (inflation adjusted, so present value) cool half million by 2024 - enough to never have to worry about almost anything, and maybe enough to retire in some parts of the country.
But they won't. They are too busy spitting on crypto. If you have time, read this comment: https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/28/the-big-buy-hype-bitcoin-c... and the original post for lol (the author tries to rationalize his decision of refusing 6 bitcoins, saying he would have sold early)
The comment by Z stands out in the magnitude of ignorance and stupidity of other commenters who read as people from another generation not understanding - not even understanding the fact that they don't understand.
Like I did, this person realized their mistake. Now they did some mental math, came with a price model (slightly higher than the $1M I estimate per BTC, but still reasonable if the network effects open new markets for BTC as a store of value compared to the gold market), and will wait until they have enough money to change their life.
$5M isn't that much, but it has the potential to change that person life according to their own calculation.
And that's the beauty of it: there is still enough gain on table to change the life of everybody alive right now - at least of anyone who does understand the change currently happening!
> Because you are going to need a lot of these if you want everyone to benefit.
Unlike you, I'm not worried about the future generations. They will invent great things standing on our shoulders.
A new world economy based on a BTC deflationary base will also provide them a much better environment, as governments will be constrained by reason and reality again.