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What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

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Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#951

Post by arielserafini »

sixothree wrote: post #943
cactus2093 wrote: post #887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, it’s very easy to selectively forget what you ended up being wrong about and remember what you got right (or close enough to pretend it was right). I was wearing an n95 mask in the grocery store starting March 1st last year, there was no reason at that point to think it wouldn’t help and I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask, it won’t help never faced a…

> I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask I thought the general assumption was they were afraid of dramatically affecting supply for the people who were risking their lives taking care of sick patients.

This, exactly this. And the guidelines re: masks changed pretty quickly.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#952

Post by bjacobt »

gregw2 wrote: post #213
gregw2 wrote: post #117

What went wrong is that the Texas legislature which owns Texas-specific grid process to avoid interference from the Feds didn't figure out how to also ensure Texas generator companies got compensated for weatherizing (and ensuring it was done). How many of the 24+6 recommendations from the NERC/FERC review of last time this happened in Texas (hint:2011) were taken up by the legislature or those at ERCOT they delegate…

Anecdote: All 7 developers in my Houston team (semi-geographically scattered in the city) lost power; half for >24 hrs (it's 10-25 degrees F here for the last 2-3 days). Most lost water for some stretch of time and some still don't have it. I don't think any completely lost heat (most have gas) but at least one person found their gas fireplace they were hoping would heat them up when out of power didn't really work t…

> I don't think any completely lost heat (most have gas) but at least one person found their gas fireplace they were hoping would heat them up when out of power didn't really work that well.

I believe fireplaces in Texas are for decoration. I live in a relatively new house in North Dallas, read open floor plan, and turning on the fireplace make absolutely no difference.

We managed to turn it on by replacing the igniter batteries and turned it back off after an hour because you don't get any heat unless you sit within 1 feet of it.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#953

Post by fuzzfactor »

JamesBarney wrote: post #717
WillPostForFood wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right if they were trying to reduce load 50%, that's basically impossible for the reasons you mention. They were only trying to get it down 20% and it might have worked if they could have effectively rolled the blackouts. A lot of people have natural gas heat. It doesn't work when the power is out (no ignition, no thermostat, and no fan), but doesn't put a huge load on the electric grid when it is on. For a w…

I don't know about North Texas but I don't think gas furnaces are that common in Houston or Austin.

These type were quite common when natural gas lines were first run to households in Houston:

Dearborn gas heater example just like the one I had:

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F...

In The Heights many original homes have a smaller version(s) built into the wall, sometimes a tiny one right there above the bathtub.

After converting to showers sometimes it's right in your face while standing.

Without a full set of built-ins, there were natural gas petcocks in each major room for portables or relocatables like Dearborns.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#954

Post by fuzzfactor »

Johnny555 wrote: post #744
HNfriend234 wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in Dallas too. What we did was pull out our generator that runs on propane then run an extension cord from the garage to inside the house connected to an electric heater. Close the bedroom door. We were about 75 degrees. You are crazy to not have a backup generator! It is an essential item to have!

Until recently, I've mostly lived in apartments or condos where a backup generator is not easy to own or operate since there are limited places to store fuel or to put a generator while running. Even if I'm ok with putting it on the balcony and running a cord inside, my neighbor may not want the generator's exhaust in his balcony. Now I live in a single-family home and have an entire RV parked beside the house (with…

>my neighbor may not want the generator's exhaust in his balcony.

Might be easier to convince them if you shared the electricity . . .

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#955

Post by silexia »

gregw2 wrote: post #895
roenxi wrote: post #782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is annoying when this sort of event happens and everyone starts deciding what they believe to be truth within 48 hours of the outage. It makes more sense to be talking about the 2011 outages in terms of what went wrong than the 2021 ones - because we have actual information on 2011 instead of "things went wrong!" now. I want to thank you personally for injecting a PDF into the discussion, but also positively asser…

From an engineering standpoint, I agree that you want a true RCA and this event's RCA will be a bit different than 2011's. And this RCA (and its political consequences) will take time, doesn't need to be done right this minute, etc etc. However, this problem is not at its root an engineering one; it is political. While the public attention is on this, we should point attention as close as possible to the most likely…

Is this power outage truly such a bad thing? It seems like a decision that the elected representatives of Texas have chosen to make. They basically said we would rather have much lower utility costs on a regular basis and have a risk that we lose our power every 9 or 10 years in a big storm. Everything is cost vs benefit trade off, and this just seems to be a different decision than most make.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#956

Post by UnFleshedOne »

sixothree wrote: post #943
cactus2093 wrote: post #887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, it’s very easy to selectively forget what you ended up being wrong about and remember what you got right (or close enough to pretend it was right). I was wearing an n95 mask in the grocery store starting March 1st last year, there was no reason at that point to think it wouldn’t help and I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask, it won’t help never faced a…

> I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask I thought the general assumption was they were afraid of dramatically affecting supply for the people who were risking their lives taking care of sick patients.

And in the process lost a significant portion of trust in public health measures. Saying the don't work is very different than saying they are short in supply and blocking sales temporarily or something. Second one is much easier to reverse without teaching public to second guess every public health directive from there on.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#957

Post by kingnothing »

axaxs wrote: post #747
sizzle wrote: post #692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there no CO2 danger from sleeping with gas stove on? Don’t people die from carbon monoxide poisoning from sleeping with open flames?

No, due to ventilation. Even an indoor fireplace for example is -always- vented, so the gasses can escape via the chimney. If you close the damper with a fire blazing, you'll not have a good time. Outdoor fires well, are outdoors, so there's plenty of oxygen. People die nearly every year in the brutal cold from getting desperate and bringing grills and such indoors to light, which is a big no no.

Downvoting because this isn't the case in the US at least. It's still legal to install internally vented gas burning fireplaces.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#958

Post by zamadatix »

u678u wrote: post #875
zamadatix wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren't talking about it because it's something like 0.2% of summer energy production in TX, a sunny state, so a very far off problem compared to pretty much any other power related issue or concern to solve for.

I can't find a good source but an old site says 300k homes have solar panel a few years ago, by now it could realistically be 5%. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/the-us-states-leading-the-wa...

The 0.2% figure was an exact power figure for TX summer 2020, not sure what that'd be in %homes with >0 panels.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#959

Post by seph-reed »

silexia wrote: post #955
gregw2 wrote: post #895

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From an engineering standpoint, I agree that you want a true RCA and this event's RCA will be a bit different than 2011's. And this RCA (and its political consequences) will take time, doesn't need to be done right this minute, etc etc. However, this problem is not at its root an engineering one; it is political. While the public attention is on this, we should point attention as close as possible to the most likely…

Is this power outage truly such a bad thing? It seems like a decision that the elected representatives of Texas have chosen to make. They basically said we would rather have much lower utility costs on a regular basis and have a risk that we lose our power every 9 or 10 years in a big storm. Everything is cost vs benefit trade off, and this just seems to be a different decision than most make.

My friends have been unable to drive, without water or electricity for a few days now. Their house is slowly losing all residual heat, making its way down to ~18 degrees.

They're young and prepared, so they'll be fine. I expect there to be a lot of deaths. And then a wave of burst pipes and property damage. Many people may be going without running water for weeks or months to come.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#960

Post by gregw2 »

silexia wrote: post #955
gregw2 wrote: post #895

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From an engineering standpoint, I agree that you want a true RCA and this event's RCA will be a bit different than 2011's. And this RCA (and its political consequences) will take time, doesn't need to be done right this minute, etc etc. However, this problem is not at its root an engineering one; it is political. While the public attention is on this, we should point attention as close as possible to the most likely…

Is this power outage truly such a bad thing? It seems like a decision that the elected representatives of Texas have chosen to make. They basically said we would rather have much lower utility costs on a regular basis and have a risk that we lose our power every 9 or 10 years in a big storm. Everything is cost vs benefit trade off, and this just seems to be a different decision than most make.

The deaths and impacts on the poor make it, to me an unacceptable tradeoff.

I don't see why others states can do it and Texas couldn't or shouldn't. This is hindsight, but out past strategy, if it was intentional, was not optimal.

Even just numerically, I would bet money that the lost productivity and sales will be much more than the "ounce of prevention" costs, even ignoring the humanitatian aspects.

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