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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#941

Post by Tubelord »

olalonde wrote: post #228
threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

I can give some recent examples. - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer. - Using it daily for Chinese-English translation. Significantly better than pre-LLM translation software. Also, great at teaching grammar, nuances, etc. - General Q&A. Like "Googling" but much faster. This is probably the most common use case for me.

I've found regarding nuances I discover in language learning it will really fail me. It will tell me the incorrect path, I correct it, it apologizes, then just to see I tell it that latest one was incorrect actually, it apologizes and I can put it in an endless loop of getting it to apologize as I correct it into the opposite of something over and over.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#942

Post by joquarky »

itake wrote: post #673
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

People want to buy SpaceX, not Twitter, Tesla, xAI. Unfortunately Elon has been conflating the three.

I remember when the music industry would release albums with one good song and make you buy the crap instead of selling the single at a lower price.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#943

Post by nradov »

supertroop wrote: post #909
Arn_Thor wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?) Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down. > Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios wil…

I’m an index investor. I still need to sell to see the gains. So that’s a tax penalty. What am I missing?

A large fraction of index funds are held in tax advantaged retirement accounts such as Roth 401(k).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#944

Post by nradov »

SilasX wrote: post #819
Arn_Thor wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?) Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down. > Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios wil…

>Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. Right, if they've advertised as an S&P 500 index fund, they have to robotically follow the S&P 500, stupid inclusions and all. Changing that strategy would require ... a lengthy process involving input from shareholders. However, someone can still start e.g. a "classic S&P 500" fund that follows the old rules for incl…

It's not the advertising that matters, it's the prospectus. Read the prospectus for any index fund and you'll find that out gives the fund managers a lot of leeway.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#945

Post by nradov »

collabs wrote: post #578
ashdksnndck wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

Sure, I don't like him either but it shouldn't be about him. It should be about the institutions we trusted to keep our index funds safe. Or was this always based on "vibes"? Was VOO never safe? Was it always possible for the people in charge of the stock market to simply include some money pit into our retirement funds? I feel like the people responsible for these decisions must fear life in prison or this will keep…

The people in charge of stock markets are mostly not the same as the people who create stock indexes. Those are run by different companies.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#946

Post by [deleted] »

wrsh07 wrote: post #862
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

Net profit is the wrong metric for high growth companies. You want the unit economics. If the unit economics look great (my understanding is they're at least fine-to-good), then they should not be taking profit because it is very much in their interest to do capex to grow their capacity so that they can continue to grow. It's a knife's edge because if they invest too aggressively it could lead to bankruptcy, but so f…

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#947

Post by [deleted] »

energy123 wrote: post #465
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

You protect yourself by understanding that this is one infinitesimally small cost (expressed as a fraction of your portfolio returns) that doesn't overcome the benefits of maximum diversification and the ultra-low fees of broad-based ETFs. Buy MSCI World, enjoy the 0.04% p.a. fees and minimal idiosyncratic risk, and relax. Index rebalance traders will reduce your annual returns by less (probably much less) than 0.1%,…

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#948

Post by [deleted] »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #784
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Here are some options for pre-tax retirement funds (ex. 401k): 1. Exchange your market-cap funds for S&P 500. Afaict, even with their own rules changing, they will wait up to 6 months (as opposed to 12) to let SpaceX in. This is the simplest solution that buys you time without losing other gains in the market, assuming your existing funds were broad market-cap funds. The idea here is to wait for ~5 months and see if…

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#949

Post by siren2026 »

bradleybuda wrote: post #371
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

I want to own the whole market AFTER the due process of price discovery. This was always understood as new stocks will have a couple quarters to prove themselves before being included.

There is a ton of research that almost every IPO on average goes down in the first 6 month. That's why they are not included by default.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#950

Post by [deleted] »

dbdr wrote: post #400
bradleybuda wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

However they are literally changing the rules of what "the entire market" means to include those companies sooner that they would have been when people bought those indices.

[deleted]
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