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Tesla ending Models S and X production

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#942
post #454

[flagged]

> Tesla never refreshes their models I'v seen quite a few Tesla Ys that needed repairs and... they seem to improve the car year to year or even months to months. Car interface suddenly changes to RJ45, some metal parts changed to aluminium (if I'm not mistaken), various things that become easyer to fix and so on. Low Voltage battery getting Li-Ion. Front under body changes: https://service.tesla.com/docs/BodyRepair/B…

Don't you need roadside assistance to change a tire still?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#943
post #833

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it’s popular to hate on Elon and therefore Tesla, but you need to be accurate when doing so. They’re still chipping away. > Tesla Semi?All but dead. They’ve been running a pilot all this time, and the factory in Nevada to mass produce them is on schedule. Production ramp is second half of this year. The factory is ginormous. > The new roadster? Also dead. Elon said yesterday the unveil is in April “hopefully”…

> Cars are driving passengers around Austin now with nobody in either front seat. This is a good example of Tesla being sketchy: https://electrek.co/2026/01/28/teslas-unsupervised-robotaxis... Musk made the announcement before earnings, put a few cars on the road, and now has pulled them all back because the earnings report is out. This is a little more than doing it publicly - remember, Musk has been saying FSD will…

Fred Lambert at Electrek has become an unreliable reporter on Tesla. I don't know where his bias stems from, but it's unmistakeable.

Lambert claims David Moss couldn't find a Robotaxi ride without a safety driver. True enough, there aren't a lot of them on the road. That doesn't mean they don't exist or were "pulled back."

Here's Moss's latest tweet on the subject: "ANOTHER UNSUPERVISED:

2 in a row now here in Austin, TX of Tesla Robotaxi’s completely autonomous without chase cars.

You can see 2 cars in the clip with no one in it & anyone can book it!

Ride 59 complete." https://x.com/DavidMoss/status/2016939137031381487

Note also in that SAME ARTICLE, Lambert credits Moss with driving 10,000 miles on FSD v14 with zero interventions.

To paraphrase William Gibson: full self-driving is here, it's just unevenly distributed.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#944
post #777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is already valued 9x higher than uber. Uber makes money on every ride. Teslas Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a taxi with a human and i don't think they will be able to have a lot higher revenue per ride than uber. Not 9x And if Tesla starts to deliver a robotaxi, all of this revenue has to be shared between taxis, uber, Tesla, Waimo, Zoox, Rimac, Cruise, Baidu, WeRide, ... So how huge is the market for Tesla t…

>> i don't think they will be able to have a lot higher revenue per ride than uber. Not 9x Why would Tesla need to have higher revenue per ride than Uber? The value of a company is driven (ultimately) by its profit, not its revenue. And Tesla doesn't have to give the majority of the fare to the driver.

Tesla has to pay for the operational and maintenance costs of the vehicle which Uber can offload to the drivers (most drivers barely break even after taking these cost into account), on top of all the ride management infrastructure that Uber deals with.

Higher costs means higher revenue is necessary to break even. It's basic math. Don't even need to get to first order principles.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#945
post #355
post #334

So he milked Tesla for another $2B to subsidize xAI, has dropped the models to 2 (3 and Y), revenue is down, growth is negative, BYD is eating Tesla for lunch, followed by the other CN and KR vehicle companies. He doesn't have FSD, camera only navigation without sensor fusion with LIDAR will fail, the only thing keeping Tesla where it is is the bullshit dispersal field that surrounds Musk.

The gamble with Cybertruck failed. It’s common sense, that such a vehicle will fail. The successful cars are made for masses and not for niche buyers. Common sense product could be something smaller than Model 3 for Europe and this car would eat Chinese for lunch. Expensive experiment failed, it’s time for consequences. Does Tesla have resources for another car experiment? Will it stay a car company?.. Or it will be…

That the Cybertruck would fail wasn't common sense. It failed because it sucked. I was supposed to be tough but it crumbled apart, and it didn't meet the European safety standards. Its design while controversial, had personality, problem is that it is the personality of Elon Musk, it was great when he was popular, but that popularity dropped sharply during the last years.

Niche buyers are fine, Ferrari makes a lot of money doing just that, and cars made for the masses are not always successful

Also, I am not a big fan of small EVs, and I live in Europe and I like small cars. Problem with small EVs is the range. Batteries are big, heavy, and expensive. It is fine in bigger, higher-end cars like what Tesla makes, but on a smaller, budget-friendly car, you have to make compromises, and consumers may demand a price too low to make good profit. So it is not guaranteed to be a market worth taking, especially if you have to compete on price against the Chinese.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#946

Makes sense and it sounds like Optimus is getting ready for prime time. Are they betting Robotaxi will replace all cars in the future?

I'm likely out of the loop, but what evidence is there that Optimus is anywhere close to ready for prime time, or any commercialization at all? I haven't seen anything compelling yet outside of highly edited videos in controlled settings.

If they're making that move they must have confidence in the progress.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#947

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s being valued on the hope that they will crack full self driving. People still believe they will crack it.

It's more of a bet on the optimus

Same same. What are they going to build? An AI bot or a bot controlled by a human?

AI bot of course. Assuming it can move fast enough and is powerful enough, won’t work without competent AI.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#948

Makes sense and it sounds like Optimus is getting ready for prime time. Are they betting Robotaxi will replace all cars in the future?

How does it "make sense" to you, really? Can you provide more rationale ?

If state backed car industry like China's is dumping world wide it would be silly to head to head with them. You're just going to burn cash and a country can go at that a lot longer than a public company ever could.

So you double down on what you have that no one else can compete on.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#949

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

I think you're totally wrong on this. Tesla didn't waste the first mover advantage. They benefitted from it whilst it existed, but Electric vehicles turned into a commodity, which was entirely expected and there's no moat. You've explained yourself why it would be untenable for Musk to pursue becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world - if he succeeded in that goal... he would have succeded in shrinking the v…

Yeah there's no margin in being a luxury car builder

And of course you're just going to pretend what the mission statement was.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#950

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

> Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage.

I doubt that because Tesla was not a first mover, established automotive companies were.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_R%27nessa#Nissan_Altra

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Ranger_EV

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_EV_Plus

Etc.

The innovation/imitation/commoditization cycle is not really new or limited to Tesla, it applies to everything from robot vacuum cleaners to CPUs. Whether Tesla survives or not probably depends a lot more on boring things like economic and trade policies of large countries.

The much more interesting thing to study would be how ice auto manufacturers not only completely wasted their first mover advantages, but also their long established brand value, supply chains and distribution and sales networks when it came to EVs.

It was not many years ago, industry "experts" were still going on about how Tesla could never hope to build cars at scale, that their "build quality" would sink them, etc. Whereas many people have rightly identified this commoditization and threats from Chinese manufacturers as being one of the biggest risks to Tesla from the beginning. Surely it's more interesting to study the things that were not obvious or well predicted?

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