941–950 of 1001 posts
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> another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually. No they did not. Elon has been saying Tesla will get there “next year” since 2015. He is still saying that, and despite changing definitions, we still are not there.
They = Waymo
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It's nice seeing commentary from someone who is both knowledgable in AI and NOT trying to pump the AI bag. Right now the median actor in the space loudly proclaims AGI is right around the corner, while rolling out pornbots/ads/in-chat-shopping, which generally seems at odds with a real belief that AGI is close (TAM of AGI must be exponentially larger than the former).
Zvi made this point the other day, and then this counterpoint which I agree with more - if you think AGI is soon but you need to keep up the exponential datacenter growth for 2-3 years (or whatever “around the corner” means for the company in question) then a land-grab on consumer ARR is a faster way to short-term revenue (and therefore higher valuations at your next round). OAI is also doing F100 and USG work; it ta…
If they think AGI is soon AND they can back it up, why can't they convince investors and have them make up the difference for the next 2-3 years? Seems like a much better strategy than the pornbots and a weaker position with regulators
I mean if anything this makes it seem like they're not confident they'll get to AGI that soon.. they're not optimizing for that eventual outcome
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> another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually Current self driving cars only work in American roads. Maybe Canada too, not sure how their roads are. Come to Europe/anywhere else and every other road would be intractable. Much tighter lanes, many turns you have a little mirror to see who's coming on the other side, single car at a time lanes that you need to "understand" who goes firs…
Waymo has promised to launch In London and Tokyo next year. New York, London, Tokyo probably covers the entire spectrum of difficulty for self driving cars, maybe we need to include Mumbai as the final boss but I would be happy saying self driving is solved if the above 3 cities have a working 24/7 self driving fleet
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> SOTA models are already capable of outperforming any human on earth in a dizzying array of ways, especially when you consider scale. So why are so many people still employed as e.g. software engineers? People aren’t prompting the models correctly? They’re only asking 10 times instead of 20? They’re holding it wrong?
Long form engineering tasks aren’t doable yet without supervision. But I can say in our shop, we won’t be hiring any more junior devs, ever, except as (in my region, free) interns or because of some extraordinary capabilities, insights, or skills. There just isn’t any business case for hiring junior devs to do the grunt work anymore. But, the vast majority of work that is done in the world is not in the same order of…
Is there any more information about the Eureka educational project? I think it's probably the wrong endpoint to target teaching about AI first (too complex, too many pre-reqs), really these tools should work from the base of the educational pyramid and move up from there. There is a lot of success already in adaptive learning in elementary school for instance, my kids are blasting through math on Prodigy and it seems…
Is there any more information about the Eureka educational project? I think it's probably the wrong endpoint to target teaching about AI first (too complex, too many pre-reqs), really these tools should work from the base of the educational pyramid and move up from there. There is a lot of success already in adaptive learning in elementary school for instance, my kids are blasting through math on Prodigy and it seems…
It's at the end of the interview. He wants to build Starfleet Academy for technical fields. Physical with a digital equivalent. Thinks education will become like a gym (self-educate to look sexy) by the time AGI gets here.
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Beauty standard changes over time, see how people perceive body fat in the past few hundred years. We learns what is beautiful from our peers. Taste can be acquired and can be cultural. See how people used to had their coffee. Comparing human to LLM is like comparing something constantly changing to something random -- we can't compare them directly, we need a good model for each of them before comparing.
Has there been a point in human history where mainstream society denied the beauty in nature?
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A universal definition of “chair” is pretty hard to pin down, too…
What are your sources for that claim?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontology
Or: just try, then try your best to find ways your definition fails. You should find it challenging, to put it mildly, to create a bulletproof definition, if you’re really looking for angles to attack each definition you can think of. They’ll end up being too broad, or too narrow. Or coming up short on defining when exactly a non-chair becomes a chair, and vice-versa, or what the boundaries of a chair are (where chairness begins and ends).
And if that one is tricky…
Redefinitions aside, fully capable AI is right up there with commercially viable fusion power, cost effective quantum completing, and fully capable self-driving cars, as a technology that is quickly advancing yet always a decade or two away.
Fusion power seems closer than ever. And plenty of experts just five years ago thought AGI would still be decades away. A credible expert suggesting AGI is ten years away is a sign of real progress.
It's funny how there's such a pervasive cynicism about AI in the developer community, yet everyone is still excited about vibe coding. Strange times...