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The $25k car is going extinct?

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Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#941

Post by habnds »

weberer wrote: post #670
habnds wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation is completely possible with no change in money supply. This is handled in economics with the idea of the "velocity of money" which conceptually captures the large range of factors by which prices can increase due to factors beyond money supply, for example an energy price shock or changing consumer and business expectations that result in changes in spending and investment patterns.

In theory, sure. But in practice the money supply has nearly quadrupled since 2005. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

$1 in Jan 2005 is only 1.69 today, not $4 because the velocity of money has decreased dramatically as it has pooled towards the top of the income/wealth spectrum where it doesn't get spent or productively invested.

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#942

Post by tmerc »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #751
tlogan wrote: post #577

This is a great example of how factually incorrect narratives - so long as they align with a preferred agenda (which is that things are not affordable any more) - it gets upvoted. Reality check: - In 2025, there are 12 new car models available under $25,000 - In 2005, there were around 10 new models under $15,000 (25k adjusted by inflation) So the premise that “cars used to be much more affordable” is not true. This…

While we're being data driven - the narrative isn't far off from reality. Looking at inflation in isolation is also misleading. Plainly, prices have risen faster than pay. Avg. new-car price: $23,017 in 2005 -> $47,465 in 2024 (+32% after inflation). Median household income: $46,242 in 2005 -> $80,610 in 2023 (+12% after inflation).

For under 47k, (off the top of my head) you can buy a Subaru BRZ, Toyota gr86, Toyota gr Corolla, Honda Civic type r, Subaru WRX, VW gti... None of those are budget conscious family cars so something is off with that average car price you quoted. You can buy a Nissan versa for under 18k today. https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/cars/versa-sedan/specs-tr... .

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#943

Post by rfwhyte »

paxys wrote: post #38

One fact not mentioned in the article - Americans now owe $1.64 trillion in auto loans, and cars make up 9% of all consumer debt in the country. In fact we now owe more on cars than student loans. The average loan term is rising - almost 6 years now. 60-day delinquency on auto loans is at 6.6%, the highest ever recorded, and is as high as 9% in some states. So while car prices keep going up, people also keep going de…

The thing you're missing here is that the automakers have spent billions upon untold billions of dollars lobbying politicians and on PR campaigns targeted at the public to convince people that literally the ONLY way American cities could possibly exist is in a form that is utterly dependent upon the automobile.

Transit ridership in the US was higher in the 1950s than it is today and it was the automakers that killed public transit. They literally bought up popular and profitable public transit companies just to shut them down so people would be forced to drive.

The problem isn't "Consumerism" it's a culture of car dependency that's largely the result of intentional action on the part of the automakers to grow and protect their profits.

The reason there's so much auto loan debt in the US is people literally HAVE TO OWN a car just to get to work to support their families in the vast majority of US towns and cities. People don't want to go into debt just so they can buy some shitty fucking KIA so they can sit in traffic for two+ hours a day so they can get to one of their three minimum wage jobs, but when the alternative is being unemployed and homeless, a lot of folks will do what they have to do to provide for themselves and their families.

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#944

Post by pattle »

BanterTrouble wrote: post #366
pattle wrote: post #361

Spending $25k on a car (if they exist) is just an insane thing to do in my opinion. In the UK we are quite lucky in that the used car market is very good. I always just buy a ~£1,000 diesel and run it into the ground, then rinse and repeat. I think in 17 years of motoring I've spent around £5,500 in total on cars.

It is a shame people run them into the ground. If looked after and a bit of money (not a lot of money) spent they would work well for another decade or two.

I MOT it (obviously) and service every year but if I know something needs doing that's going to be expensive I just live with it. Especially if it's electrical because that can be a mine field and cost lots of labour time. Sometimes I try and make repairs myself and learn something in the process

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#945

Post by tlogan »

VerminOctopus1 wrote: post #895
tlogan wrote: post #577

This is a great example of how factually incorrect narratives - so long as they align with a preferred agenda (which is that things are not affordable any more) - it gets upvoted. Reality check: - In 2025, there are 12 new car models available under $25,000 - In 2005, there were around 10 new models under $15,000 (25k adjusted by inflation) So the premise that “cars used to be much more affordable” is not true. This…

Did you even read the article before making your comment? It is actually data driven like you are demanding, while your own comment is not beyond the most basic sense. A superficial count of models below $25,000k MSRP is not adding to the discussion.

Two examples:

Example 1: The article claims that the affordable Nissan Versa Note cost $16,545 in 2019 and was discontinued. But not saying that this would be $21,168 in today’s dollars and they leave out an important detail: Nissan still sells the Versa in the US, just not the Note hatchback version. The current Nissan Versa starts at $17,190 according to Nissan’s own website: https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/cars/versa-sedan.html

That’s actually about 20% less expensive than the inflation-adjusted number from 2019.

Example 2: And then they claim that price increase is: 29.2% - just 3% more than inflation (but they did not want to mention total PCI). But even that number of 29.2% cannot be verified on BLS.gov nor fred.stlouisfed.org . I uploaded FRED and BLS data to chatgpt o3 and it says that new vehicle prices increased 22% from 2019 to 2025 - actually less then inflation:

2019: 146.220

2020: 149.091

2021: 166.653

2022: 176.463

2023: 178.269

2024: 177.552 fred.stlouisfed.org (slight dip from 2023)

2025: ~178.7 (May 2025)

Overall, from 2019 to mid-2025 the index increased from ~146 to ~179, amounting to about a 22% cumulative rise in new vehicle prices.

(https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm - code CUUR0000SETA01).

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#946

Post by Spooky23 »

enragedcacti wrote: post #871
Spooky23 wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if you keep them for a long time. Most people drive around 15k miles, the gas difference ends up to about $2500/yr. If you drive a lot, different story.

The Corolla hybrid is only $1500 more than the base model and gets 50MPG combined vs 35MPG. The break even for 15k miles/year is 2.5-4.3 years given the highest and lowest US prices as of today (California@$4.59, Texas@$2.70).

Not really. Toyota dealers are filth. The ones around here were trying to sell my neice one for $5000 over sticker as a “market adjustment”.

It’s better in other regions, but you couldn’t pay me to buy a Toyota.

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#947

Post by snuxoll »

namibj wrote: post #232
snuxoll wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Outside of having what amounts to a couple of shells and removable seats that can be mounted to the box (and a removable rear panel from the cab to join them to create a single 'interior' when using them), the majority of their BTO options are really basic module swaps where most of the complexity comes from managing inventory of the various SKUs than anything else. As somebody with a '99 Ford Ranger, the Slate is in…

Huh? I thought the Slate body panels are fiber reinforced Polypropylene, basically a cheaper somewhat less intense performance sibling of that ultra tough fiber reinforced nylon that power tools are made of since about that battery tool manufacturer war really took off? Yeah, there's a frame underneath, but the panel itself shouldn't even really care about tanking a shopping card, it's main weakness is how soft the P…

Yeah, but I'm not talking about a shopping cart denting the side of the box. My family owns some forested land on butte near where I live, 8' wide dirt roads carved through the hills with very abrupt drops, pine trees and loose rock damaged by weather threatening to fall a few feet and ruin your day, and wild growth that likes to suddenly scratch your paint at best when you're heading down an oft-used path for the first time in a year. Let's not even talk about wildlife being wildlife.

Like I said, my Ranger is not a grocery carrier, the 2015 Impala I drive day-to-day handles those tasks. The pickup gets used, towing my ATV and jon boat, hauling stuff around for camping trips, carrying firewood around, and generally getting rough and dirty away from civilized society. That's why, at best, the Slate is appealing to at least handle hardware store runs or hauling my boat (trailer and the boat are easily within the 1,000 lb towing limit on it) to the lake; but it's still not a replacement for what I have. Also really need e-AWD from an EV pickup to get over (or out of) some things, the Maverick is also a flop here because it only has AWD (which an EV can get away with because of the insane torque electric motors can provide, but an ICE or hybrid pickup without 4L is going to get stuck somewhere).

Yeah, a "mid-sized" pickup would check all of those, but even relatively compact ones like my step-mothers GMC Canyon have a notably larger turning diameter, which is why I want a proper compact pickup (another area the Maverick fails miserably, 40 foot turning circle for something that small is...words fail me.)

As an aside, the other downside to unibody pickups is their towing capacity, but with a new option package added to the current model year even the Ford Maverick can match the 2 ton capacity of my Ranger (although Ford saw fit to derate mine to 1 ton because it's a 5-speed; it's fully capable of towing 4,000 lbs, albeit not very fast, if you know how not to burn up a clutch.)

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#948

Post by climb_stealth »

philwelch wrote: post #808
climb_stealth wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a very similar mindset, but, man, mortgages hurt. At least when paying rent the money goes towards a real person. With a mortgage such a big chunk of the payment is the interest that just goes to this faceless entity that is the bank. How does it not bother you? :)

Most of my landlords were faceless entities too. Obviously I’d rather the house be paid off but I didn’t have $300,000 in cash and I have to live somewhere.

Yep okay, fair enough!

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#949

Post by const_cast »

BanterTrouble wrote: post #799
Der_Einzige wrote: post #767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, good! I am so tired of these insane "I want nothing but an engine" spiritual boomers. They are making the road far more dangerous for everyone. Yes, I will force you to have automatic emergency breaking in your Model T hotrod. Yes, you will be mad. Yes, the road will be a lot safer. No I don't care about your boomer rage about technology. No you don't want to live with India tier road laws/standards - even…

The more you try to force this stuff. The more of reaction in the opposite direction you will get.

From what I've seen with regulation this isn't the case, rather the opposite is true. The more we force it, the more understood it becomes and eventually it fades into the background and nobody cares. We've already had this exact conversation in the 80s with seatbelts.

Believe it or not, there were a lot of good arguments against seatbelts. And they were genuinely believed. And they were popular. And, they are now well past extinct.

Re: The $25k car is going extinct?

#950

Post by builtsimple »

The dealer inventory model is the real killer here. The article mentions that only ~20% of US buyers pre-order cars, compared to Europe where build-to-order is common. This fundamentally changes the economics. When I worked at a dealership software company, we saw the data firsthand - dealers would rather sit on one $80k truck for 60 days than move five $25k sedans in the same timeframe. The financing alone makes it worthwhile. A buyer financing an $80k vehicle at 7% over 72 months generates ~$20k in finance reserve profits that get split between the dealer and lender. The $25k car? Maybe $3-4k if you're lucky. The Maverick situation is particularly telling. Ford designed an actually affordable truck, and dealers immediately marked it up 25% because they could. That's not a supply chain issue - that's dealers extracting maximum value from artificial scarcity. What's interesting is that direct-to-consumer models (Tesla, Rivian, etc.) haven't really attacked this market segment either. You'd think cutting out the dealer would make sub-$25k vehicles viable again, but even they're chasing higher margins upmarket. The only real solution I see is Chinese EVs eventually forcing the issue. BYD is selling the Seagull for ~$11k in China. Even with tariffs, that could land here under $25k and completely reset consumer expectations. Until then, we're stuck with dealers optimizing for finance profits over volume.
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