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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#941

Post by mjfl »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #928
mjfl wrote: post #876

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he could do it by shutting off the pipeline, which is what he was already doing. He didn't need an excuse. Furthermore, he wants to be able to turn it back on, as negotiating tool. But the explosion prevents that, with no benefit. People are saying they want to avoid fines, but the fines could never exceed the value of the intact pipeline. It's nonsense.

Damaging these pipelines is a message to NATO that they are capable of damaging the Norwegian undersea pipelines Europe now relies on.

no. like I said Putin is not stupid enough to make such an egregiously bad economic trade.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#943

Post by Seanambers »

foverzar wrote: post #931
WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like on any crime scene, who profits from the crime? Well, a few things first: 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany 2- The war is going to last for many more months (best case scenario) or a year or two or ... No matter how long it will really last, Europe, after having survived Win…

> 2- Russia: they are losing the war and now throwing conscripts with not a day of training on the front. That's pretty desperate move to say the least. Whenever they escalate, they see that as a chance to break unity among the west. Blowing up their (now useless) pipeline is in line with another desperate move: at least try to make something useful out of it. If Russia loses the war, Putin is just dead (at least pol…

Isn't it obvious what the advantages would be for Russia?

IF the Russians did it they get ;

1.Blowing up NS1&2 creates more energy and gas uncertainty in Europe in a period where they need to put on the pressure and try to limit military support for Ukraine as they are loosing the war in Ukraine. Its an assertive move.

2.They get to do big power signaling with a direct threat to other infrastructure in the north sea which is significant and all of which supplies Europe with gas.

I would also like to point out that the Russians [unconfirmed but its basically what went down] sank the passenger ferry Estonia with 852 dead because it was used in the transport of stolen military hardware.

So these explosions is not out of the realm of possibility - quite the opposite - I would say that it is basically how the Russians operate - with force.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#944

Post by _kbh_ »

foverzar wrote: post #905
_kbh_ wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely censored and scrubbed from easy access by these same state apparatuses or wait until foia requests reveal what they always reveal about our benevolent state. Max Blumenthal is a Russian propagandist who is a regular guest on Russian state back…

> Max Blumenthal is a Russian propagandist who is a regular guest on Russian state backed networks such RT and Sputnik. He is an American, and he had also worked with Al Jazeera, The New York Times and a few other wide-known and reputable organizations. Your logic that someone is somehow inferior due to being "tainted" by interacting with those you don't like isn't really solid, especially when discussing a journalis…

> He is an American, and he had also worked with Al Jazeera, The New York Times and a few other wide-known and reputable organizations.

He's an American who really seems to like to try and push Kremlin backed talking points a lot, as well as hiring lots of people from RT and Sputnik both are which are Russian government propaganda outlets.

He also has a habit of excusing the genocide committed by Assad's regime.

A counter point to what you are saying is, just because someone has been credible in the past does not make them credible now, especially when they repeatedly push propaganda talking points.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#945

Post by Sebb767 »

krzyk wrote: post #61
Sebb767 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> RUptured Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.

They can gain much - gas reserves in Europe during winter to small -> no chance for sanctions on Russian gas. This is the same they did with the "repairs" for NS1 which stopped gas to Germany for few weeks (or months I don't remember exactly).

Well, if the gas can't be delivered, of what use is the lack of gas sanctions to Russia? In this case it even affected NS2, which Russia was actually fighting to get up and running.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#946

Post by actionfromafar »

SanjayMehta wrote: post #805
kibwen wrote: post #778

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is tinfoil-haberdashery. No, Biden did not authorize a clandestine attack on Russian infrastructure just to boost the US auto industry, nor did he subtly broadcast his nefarious intent months ago as part of some game to throw red meat to the conspiratorialists, Q-style. The US would have nothing to gain and everything to lose by engaging in such an action, and has absolutely no impetus to since it already curren…

Putin is acting as irrationally as JFK did during the Cuban missile crisis.

Putin is acting rationally as someone staying in power at all costs to his country.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#947

Post by mgfist »

foverzar wrote: post #936
mgfist wrote: post #790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe had already figured out their energy supply for the winter. They weren't counting on Russia.

So what was the solution in the end? Cuz currently I only see everyone being afraid to even acknowledge that gas reserves are merely a buffer. I suspect this "figured out" might as well be yet another soothing post-truth.

Well for one they've filled storage reserves past the annual target: https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxo..., and will fill it up to the max. The reserve can be used for about 3 months. Anything else they need will be purchased expensively on demand. Demand will be cut where it can. Something like 10-15% less demand would make all the difference. Yes it'll be painful in the short term but they should have never hitched themselves to Russian energy in the first place. This is the cost they will pay.

Anyways, by next winter France's nukes should be back online and they'll have had 2 years to make structural changes to ween off Russian gas. Likely means more US LNG in the short term, and more green energy/tech in the long term. Only chance I see of them getting back to Russian energy is if Russia gets toppled by a democratic regime that wants to be westernized. I see this as very unlikely in the next 2 years.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#948

Post by actionfromafar »

foverzar wrote: post #935
fmajid wrote: post #898

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the ridiculous number of oligarchs getting defenestrated of late, it doesn’t seem Putin has lost his ability to cow them. The USA would be entirely right not to trust Germany, but the risks of blowback should it be caught would make it too risky, and Biden doesn’t strike me as a gambler, unlike some. Ukraine would be a good potential suspect but probably doesn’t have the capability. China could also be, turning…

> but the risks of blowback should it be caught would make it too risky It's the same risk for every suspect, so it's not really a counterpoint.

Russia has already been caught lying about serious things without fazing their believers one bit.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#949

Post by toss1 »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #689
toss1 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has a motivation to kill the pipelines now, to increase gas prices now, as NS1 & NS2 are NOT the only paths to get gas to the EU. Since they are already down for "maintenance" (and we actually know some maintenance is needed), it would be a good tactical move to kill the possibility of NS1 & NS2 delivering gas, increase focus on the crisis now, and hope that this scares the EU into stopping supporting Ukraine.…

> and hope that this scares the EU into stopping supporting Ukraine This absolutely doesn’t make sense. If the pipeline is gone, EU does not have any incentive to settle with Russia. Like, “whatever”, no pipe, we send tanks to Ukraine because you have nothing to offer to us anymore.

You are massively missing the facts that:

1) there are multiple OTHER pipelines from Russia to the EU, and NatGas can be shipped by sea (as is now being done from the US); NS1 was not the only route, and NS2 was barely online, and already Germany was heavily dependent on Russian supplies. So it would still be easy to make a settlement with Russia to get more NatGas and oil if the EU wanted.

2) Russia has a LONG history of creating non-military disruption in target countries to gain advantage. Simple disruption of the political situation in the EU is very advantageous to Russia, they would hope it causes at the very least a diversion of funds and attention from supporting Ukraine to dealing with domestic unrest.

3) A new pipeline from Norway was opened literally the same day. This sends a message: "Nice pipeline you have there, it'd be a shame if anything happened to it.". This further creates uncertainty and stress in the EU.

All of these benefit Russia and it's Ukraine genocide efforts directly and significantly.

That said, there is definitely the possibility that it could also backfire, and strengthen the will of the EU to avoid Russia as a completely unreliable and exploitative supplier, and as you say, reply with "FU, we're sending more tanks to Ukraine". I sincerely hope so.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#950

Post by dagw »

davrosthedalek wrote: post #806
WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like on any crime scene, who profits from the crime? Well, a few things first: 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany 2- The war is going to last for many more months (best case scenario) or a year or two or ... No matter how long it will really last, Europe, after having survived Win…

There is also China and maybe India. With the pipeline gone for good, Russia has to sell to them. No other market. But all this speculation depends on how damaged the pipeline is. I haven't seen any info on how long a repair would take.

With the pipeline gone for good

The physical pipeline is still there and mostly fine. Fixing the holes is expensive and requires the right expertise and equipment, but most experts I've seen quoted in the media seem to agree that it could definitely be done within a year, and probably faster, if everybody involved really wanted to.

Edit: Other experts are now claiming that the damage is more substantial and that repairs might not be possible

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