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Billionaires Build

paulgraham.com

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Re: Billionaires Build

#941

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is all this research you are talking about you doing? I don't see it. You've provided two links in response to two of your many points. You've made claims like "this is Germany+" without actually supporting that claim. The burden of proof is on you to prove this is Germany+ (as the one making the claim), not me. I have no interest in winning the argument, I have an interest in the truth and sound fiscal and soci…

Nice, this is great! I now feel like digging in might be productive here. > You've made claims like "this is Germany+" without actually supporting that claim. I wasn't like, making a legal statement or whatever. You're arguing "this is communism with extra steps" and my point generally is that these prescriptions largely exist in democratically socialist, productive, EU countries. There are actually not that many com…

Thank you for the comprehensive response. One overall point I'd like to make is that I think it is much more constructive to cite things that indicate the policies are having a good impact, not just sources showing that the policies exist. I have not done either in this response, however, as most of my questions/responses are about the theory, not the practice. For example, below I talk about CEO pay. You have pointed out that Germany has policies in place that reduce the gap between CEOs and their average workers, but I think first we need to determine why the gap is bad, if at all. Some gaps are fair, some are not. Anyway I have tried to be thorough with my responses, and have condensed our talking points into more cohesive groups when sensible.

-- re: unions

Right to organize is not the same as "right to force people to join a union". That is what right to work laws prevent. Anyone should be able to join a union. Any group of workers in any industry should be able to form a union. Unions should not be able to force people to join their union. This is a gross violation of individual liberty.

Right to organize and right to work are not conflicting goals. If unions need to force workers to join them, they're arguably not good unions.

I agree that unions are important. But unions are not universally good – they sometimes have serious downsides. Any push for unions need to be met with a measured understanding of this. Do you have a solution for the problem that unions with too much power are actually bad for the economy in that they stifle competition and decrease efficiency? Monopolies in general are bad, and that includes monopolies on labour.

-- re: profit sharing

You can start a coop in the US today. But a coop is not the end-all-be-all of business structures. I'm fine with people starting coops. In fact I think that's great. But requiring it has the potential to stifle innovation / (constructive) risk-taking while fixing a problem that doesn't need solving (because labour can already join coops if they want). There are many companies that want to re-invest profits into CapEx or similar, which becomes more difficult with a profit-sharing structure.

-- re: co-determination

Probably don't have a problem with this as long as it is not majority. Haven't thought enough about possible negative ramifications of such policies though. Want to steel man the counter?

-- re: CEO pay

I agree that executive compensation seems out of wack, but my real issue is that I don't understand how the problem exists, and am wholeheartedly against slapping band-aids on things until I understand the underlying cause. You seem to be taking the stance that wildly different pay is always bad, which I cannot agree with. Fair pay is pay which is proportional to the value delivered. If you are delivering 100x the value than the average worker, you should get paid 100x more. To be completely frank, I don't even think it is a requirement that people should be paid the same rate for the same work, but that is an argument we don't need to get into, as the aforementioned idea of "fair" comes before that anyway.

What I mean to say here is: assuming a free and competitive market, you'd think disproportionate executive pay (disproportionate not to other employees but to the value being delivered by the executive, as to my mind this is what fairness is about in business) would result in a company that is less competitive than one which is not overpaying its executives. So how did this come to pass? To my mind the only options are: 1. markets aren't actually competitive 2. American CEOs actually are delivering 256x the value of their average worker.

If 1, my preference would be to find ways to solve the underlying problem and make the market more competitive rather than this band-aid solution. If 2, then again I don't think there is a problem that needs solving.

There is a 3rd option that disproportionate (again, wrt value delivered, not wrt other workers) executive compensation somehow makes a company more competitive, but I don't see how that could be the case.

-- re: taxes

For someone that seems to be a bit of an idealist, you don't seem to be following through here. I don't think "tax prep's lobby is strong" is a good reason to not simplify the tax code. It's a reason it might not happen, but if simplifying the tax code is good we should strive to do that anyway. Everyone in US government always trying to find the middle ground is why we have settled on a bunch of highly mediocre yet expensive solutions to many (most?) of our biggest problems. Hell, the best tax prep is literally helping you avoid taxes, so clearly if tax avoidance is the problem then they are a big part of it. Are you actually talking about tax evasion when you say dodging? If so I agree that this should be punished, but again, this is something the US is already doing. You can serve jail-time for evasion.

With regards to progressive income taxes, I stand by my point that we already do this. Sure, Germany's brackets are higher (as are many other places), but in this case I don't think "other people do it" is a good argument. I think the de-facto "fair" way of taxing people is with a flat tax. If you choose not to do a flat tax, you need a good argument for why not. Once you have that argument, it should also be able to justify somewhat specific (evidence/reason based) brackets, not arbitrary ones.

-- re: minimum wage

I stand by the idea that states can determine their own minimum wage and that this isn't something the US federal government needs to concern itself with. If states are not doing so, residents need to make a change in their own state. To this end though (supporting the idea of states with real autonomy), I do think it is important that the federal government has policies in place (not exactly certain what form they would take) that allow people to more easily "vote with their feet", i.e. move to another state if their current one isn't treating them well. Competition is often pretty great at improving things, and I think that includes competition between states. I'm still fine with a US federal minimum wage, but I don't think it should be pegged to an average US CoL, as again, different regions have wildly different CoLs. Pegged to inflation / purchasing power makes sense though.

-- re: at-will employment

Disagree strongly with this one. If I can hire someone for any reason, I should be able to fire someone for any reason. Just like you can start a job for any reason and you should be able to quit for any reason. Besides, even when you try to prevent this with regulation, most of the time you end up being able to fire people anyway by finding some stupid reason that's valid, which you just have to sit on for a while. There is no possible way such a policy is good for the economy and therefore society. You end up with HR people who's job is to just find excuses to fire the people that you want to fire anyway, and that certainly isn't productive. It also requires involving more bureaucracy to provide the oversight in judging when reasons are valid or not.

I think one of the big reasons Silicon Valley is in California and not anywhere else in the world is Cali's great combination of 1. at-will employment 2. unenforceable non-competes. It is a great combo that supports individual liberty while also encouraging innovation. You can fire me for any reason, but I can immediately go to a competitor and put my skills to good use. Together it is a great balance. One without the other and you have serious downsides:

• At-will, w/o non-competes: good. Mobility encourages competition and innovation, relationship between employer/employee is a balanced one.

• At-will + non-competes: bad – employers can screw employees even when they're not working for them, violates individual liberty without the worker getting anything for it.

• No at-will, w/o non-competes: bad – chilling effect on hiring + training. Employers don't want to invest in employees if they will struggle to fire them without a corresponding incentive for the employee to stay where they are.

• No at-will + non-competes: bad – stifles competition/innovation by discouraging mobility of the workforce on all fronts.

Re: Billionaires Build

#942

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we should encourage everyone to be an entrepreneur. I disagree that the right way to approach it is by focusing on underserved groups . The right way to approach it is to make it easy for anyone to start a business. The unfortunate reality is that you will never be able to pick from a menu of all possible career options because you (whoever you are) are not cut out for all possible careers. There are man…

> I disagree that the right way to approach [encouraging entrepreneurship] is by focusing on underserved groups. The right way to approach it is to make it easy for anyone to start a business. The numbers are real bad though [1] [2] [3]. White people own 80% of small businesses, and men own 64%. In 2012 (admittedly old but, the Census site is very bad) white men owned 2,933,198 firms with employees on the payroll. Ev…

> white people own 80% of small businesses

But white people are 73% of the US population. Obviously it'd be nice if everything was proportional, but all things considered (how recently black people got fully equal rights, for example), I think 7% over-representation is pretty damn good, not "real bad", and the trend is heading in the right direction. Seems like a gap that is very doable to close with purely "encourage everyone to start a business" policies, and egalitarian policies like those should be the preference when possible. With respect to men vs. women, I think a similar argument should be made. Women were demonstrate that. Because an alternate explanation is that women (for whatever reason, maybe they like healthy work/life balances?) are choosing, very much of their own free will and without undue pressure from society, to not start businesses at a higher rate than men.

> Maybe it's 5x, maybe even 10x, but not 270x

This doesn't seem to be a particularly rational stance. If you don't have a good reason behind why it should be one multiple and not another, I don't think its your place to decide that multiple. This sounds a lot like the oft-repeated "nobody should be a billionaire". Um, why not? A billion dollars is an arbitrary amount of value. For example, a billion Zimbabwean dollars in 2008 wouldn't buy a coke[1]. Obviously in the case of USD right now, $1B is a lot of value. But if I make some useful piece of software (entirely on my own) that I sell to 100,000,000 people for $10 each, why should I not be a billionaire? Again, if you don't have a rational (rather than emotional) underlying argument for why X amount of value is "too much", it is not your place to decide that number.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe

Re: Billionaires Build

#943
post #877

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suppose shouldn't have assumed that you would know that the New Deal involved raising revenue. Concise data from the 1930s isn't super easy to come by, you are going to have to look at broader economic trends and make your own conclusions. I don't really need concise data, just some rough numbers. How much did they project the revenue act would raise, how much did it actually raise. How much did it impact investm…

> Then why would you bring up the Revenue Act? That is literally a "specific policy". You were being pedantic about how the New Deal raised revenue. Literally the only reason I linked it. > Do you want me to show dozens of examples of FTTs failing? Do you simply need more? If you have examples in the United States or the United Kingdom, sure I'll take a look at them. Otherwise, I don't really see the point, when no o…

>You were being pedantic about how the New Deal raised revenue.

How is it pedantic. It's completely relevant. I want to know if it was successful, where the money came from and how it got there...

Much in the same way people preach a wealth tax would bring in "billions" without realizing that probably wouldn't put a dent in anything considering the overall budget.

>If you have examples in the United States or the United Kingdom, sure I'll take a look at them. Otherwise, I don't really see the point, when no other country has had global financial controls comparable to the US/UK in the last 100 years.

ahaha man, isn't that kinda ironic though? Maybe because the US/UK has seen the consequences of an FTT and realized that maybe its not a good idea. This is like saying "I don't want to see anything unless its from the last 50 years, since so much has changed since then"

>Further, I've already said that FTT is only one approach, and not one which I have specifically advocated for at any point in this thread. You are arguing against yourself on that one.

Where did I ever say you were? I'm using FTT as an example of an "effort to tax the rich" that completely backfired because the people behind it assumed they were dealing with a vacuum.

>We already tax wealth, so it's not clear at all why you think it's so catastrophic.

Because it is a waste of energy at best and something that could have catastrophic consequences at worst.

>It sure doesn't seem like you've done real research if you haven't been able to come around on the existence (and non-apocalyptic nature of) property and estate taxes.

I'm not a fan of those either for the most part. However, there's a big difference between property tax and trying to tax something worth $50b one day and then $100b a half a year later.

Re: Billionaires Build

#944

Two things that are very obviously wrong with the take, both I think having the same reason: Not all billionaires are self-made, and a majority of them aren't tech entrepreneurs of the sort PG talks about in this piece. Seems like a very obvious fact but somehow doesn't really come up. Secondly, in the same vein, the kind of (aspiring) billionaires YC meets are, by definition, builders, because they're self-sorted fl…

FaceMash wasn't exploitative?

Re: Billionaires Build

#945
post #798

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This rhetoric is almost universally applied to the lower class as well, at least in the US.

I think the lower class in the US actually have it relatively darn good. They just lack perspective to see it any other way.

It seems ok until someone in your family is diagnosed with a chronic health condition...

Re: Billionaires Build

#946
post #774
post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taxation is the proper remedy for breaking this power. No, it's one possible remedy, and historically it doesn't appear to have worked very well. The fundamental problem with taxation is that governments are even worse than individual billionaires like Jeff Bezos at choosing what to do with large amounts of money. Another possible remedy is to reduce the power of governments, so there is less value to be captured b…

> The fundamental problem with taxation is that governments are even worse than individual billionaires like Jeff Bezos at choosing what to do with large amounts of money. Citation needed. When Governments had lots of revenue, they assist the population with public services, which tend to benefit the lowest stratum of society the most. But the cumulative effect is to raise the quality of life of society as a whole. T…

> Citation needed.

How Effective is Government Welfare Compared to Private Charity? [0]

“[Government] income redistribution agencies are estimated to absorb about two-thirds of each dollar budgeted to them in overhead costs, and in some cases as much as three-quarters of each dollar. Using government data, Robert L. Woodson (1989, p. 63) calculated that, on average, 70 cents of each dollar budgeted for government assistance goes not to the poor, but to the members of the welfare bureaucracy and others serving the poor. Michael Tanner (1996, p. 136 n. 18) cites regional studies supporting this 70/30 split.

“In contrast, administrative and other operating costs in private charities absorb, on average, only one-third or less of each dollar donated, leaving the other two-thirds (or more) to be delivered to recipients. Charity Navigator, www.charitynavigator.org the newest of several private sector organizations that rate charities by various criteria and supply that information to the public on their web sites, found that, as of 2004, 70 percent of charities they rated spent at least 75 percent of their budgets on the programs and services they exist to provide, and 90 percent spent at least 65 percent. The median administrative expense among all charities in their sample was only 10.3 percent.”

Later on Edwards adds: “In fact, the average cost of private charity generally is almost certainly lower than the one-quarter to one-third estimated by Charity Navigator and other private sector charity rating services…” and tells why.

The bottom line: Government spends about 70% of tax dollars to get 30% of tax dollars to the poor. The private sector does the opposite, spending about 30% or less to get 70% of aid to the poor.

[0] https://www.theadvocates.org/2013/06/effective-government-we...

Re: Billionaires Build

#947
post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said taxation was theft or that taxes shouldn't exist. I said that private ownership of property was good for creativity, this is independent of taxation. You can pay taxes and still own things. Indeed, we do. You seem to be proposing that taxation is an unalloyed good and that more taxation is always better - that all problems are the result of insufficient taxation. Do you have any actual plan for how to sp…

That seems like a straw man of my position. Suggesting that we tax the wealth of the richest person in the country is not a radical idea, nor is it equivalent to "taxation is an unalloyed good". Likewise, nothing I said conflicts with the idea that private ownership of property is good, generally. Just that inequality is bad, and taxation is a primary way to address it. If you don't think taxation is theft, then it's…

> You can burn the money in a furnace for all I care, as long as the ratio between the richest and poorest goes down substantially.

How does making everyone worse off make things better? For example, inequality skyrocketed in China after they liberalized their economy [0]. Why would it be better for everyone to be equally miserable and starving? I really don't understand this mentality.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform

Re: Billionaires Build

#948
post #746

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem with just taxing it all away to prevent him from being a billionaire is the money is tied to control of the company, so it's equivalent to saying nobody can build a business bigger than some arbitrary limit. Limits are hardly arbitrary. If you control a large enough chunk of economic output that your decisions have distortionary effects on other markets and people it’s not an “arbitrary” standard that t…

So make laws to prevent monopoly, rather than making size/employee count based.

> So make laws to prevent monopoly, rather than making size/employee count based.

Yes. That's generally what "no billionaires" policies are focused on. But "market power" is still a useful consideration.

Re: Billionaires Build

#949

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you live in Scandinavia? We're not talking about Scandinavia. USA ranks #27 here: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-social-mobility-...

That report is obvious bullshit and you should be able to discern that immediately. It ranks countries on “ healthcare, education, technology access, working conditions, and social protection” and then calls that “social mobility”. Zero actual analysis of intra- or inter-generational wealth variance.

Interesting.

The OECD have a better report :

https://www.oecd.org/centrodemexico/medios/44582910.pdf

From page 5 Australia ranks #2 and Canada #5 and the US is #10.

That's on intergenerational income quintile mobility.

Re: Billionaires Build

#950

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I disagree that the right way to approach [encouraging entrepreneurship] is by focusing on underserved groups. The right way to approach it is to make it easy for anyone to start a business. The numbers are real bad though [1] [2] [3]. White people own 80% of small businesses, and men own 64%. In 2012 (admittedly old but, the Census site is very bad) white men owned 2,933,198 firms with employees on the payroll. Ev…

> white people own 80% of small businesses But white people are 73% of the US population. Obviously it'd be nice if everything was proportional, but all things considered (how recently black people got fully equal rights, for example), I think 7% over-representation is pretty damn good, not "real bad", and the trend is heading in the right direction. Seems like a gap that is very doable to close with purely "encourag…

The 80/64 numbers are pretty misleading because they count sole proprietorships. I'd reemphasize:

> 2,933,198 firms with employees on the payroll. Everyone else owned 356,816 firms. Those same white men's firms had sales receipts of $8,221,010,815. Other firms had $88,657,443. That's nuts. Even more so when you consider white men are only ~33% of Americans. My guess is that COVID-19 makes this even worse, but who knows really.

White people aren't 89% (or 99%, in the case of sales) of the population. And at numbers this big, 7% is 210,000 firms. That's not nothing.

> This doesn't seem to be a particularly rational stance. If you don't have a good reason behind why it should be one multiple and not another, I don't think its your place to decide that multiple.

CEO pay isn't meritocratic and has all kinds of ills besides [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. I think generally the argument here is something like, "well, CEOs/CTOs/etc. just provide a lot more value than your average white collar worker", but the studies don't show that. Further, data show that (again) high relative CEO pay is bad for the company and bad for society in general.

I'd be remiss if I didn't also say that while we're spending a lot of time on high incomes here, high levels of wealth are far, far worse. We need policies to reign in disproportionate salaries certainly, but we also need a wealth tax. I could cite some more stuff but, frankly the best thing to do here is read Capital by Piketty.

> This sounds a lot like the oft-repeated "nobody should be a billionaire". Um, why not?

Because people are dying from poverty; they're losing their cars and houses; their kids aren't going to college; their parents aren't getting medicine they need to stay healthy and live; etc. etc. Meanwhile Jeff Bezos could give every person in the US restaurant industry $1,000/mo for a year and still have hundreds of millions of dollars.

You might dismiss that as emotional, but I think these are exactly the reasons people have money: to provide shelter for themselves and their loved ones, to get medicine, to get education. That's not emotional stuff, that's like, what are the basic needs of humanity stuff.

[1]: https://www.epi.org/publication/reining-in-ceo-compensation-...

[2]: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Steve_Werner2/publicati...

[3]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ceo-pay-and-performance-dont-ma...

[4]: https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46078405/The_effects_o...

[5]: https://hbr.org/1990/05/ceo-incentives-its-not-how-much-you-...

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