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Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

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Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#931

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPS..

You believe that GPS is hosted on servers in space?

Technically, yes. Obviously stretches the normal definition of a server, but it is a computer controlled system "serving" a mostly digital signal.

https://www.baesystems.com/en-us/article/gps-iii-satellite-l...

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#932

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out K2 Space. They are planning a large bus satellite that can ferry deliverables to different orbits. They are just one of many many companies just itching to send large mass objects into space at low cost.

They are doing the same marketing garbage as Space-X and to no surprise, were founded by ex Space-X people. You need companies actually wanting to send stuff up there. Musk and K2 Space are desperate for customers and the fact, that they talk about datacenter in space, which doesn't make sense (for at least the next 30-50? years), should tell you everything you need to know. It is very easy to just lay down energy ca…

Not sure how we went from space x will fail to there are no companies new industries to the new industries are lying to data centers don’t make sense.

There are plenty of reason for space data centers the big one would be: the public is moving against data centers. So plenty of space up there that isn’t regulated. Cooling is not impossible, the ISS does it. It’s not out the realm of science, just needs to be solved. And they are already sending up startlink satellites, why not just make them bigger with the right cooling equipment and then not be concerned about longevity, just let it burn up when it’s of no use.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#933
post #281

Since the S-1 filing, xAI has taken over and is likely the largest share of revenue. I would estimate that ~95%+ of xAI revenue, and 100% of its profit, is from renting their datacenters. This is a datacenter REIT bolted onto a social media company bolted onto launch business bolted onto a niche ISP. The expected price to sales is ~100x. The best datacenter REITs trade at ~10x and pay a dividend, which SpaceX does no…

> Comcast is one of the best-run ISPs You mean the company with such a bad reputation that it had to aggressively rebrand? I take it you've never had the displeasure of doing business with them. That said it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to learn that it was one of the most profitable ISPs for investors. That would fit quite well with the general theme of prioritizing the interests of investors over all else.

Yes, my commentary was through the lens of an investor. Comcast does well for investors -> the multiples assigned to it by the market will be a good reference -> Starlink is not likely to have a terminal value anything like what boosters suggest.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#934
post #281

Since the S-1 filing, xAI has taken over and is likely the largest share of revenue. I would estimate that ~95%+ of xAI revenue, and 100% of its profit, is from renting their datacenters. This is a datacenter REIT bolted onto a social media company bolted onto launch business bolted onto a niche ISP. The expected price to sales is ~100x. The best datacenter REITs trade at ~10x and pay a dividend, which SpaceX does no…

Datacenter REITs do not directly own all those scarce wired up and powered Nvidia chips.

The stated reason SpaceX and others are talking about doing the near-impossible (orbital datacenters) for astronomical sums is that they are unable to do what e.g. Digital Realty does as its core business.

Conventional wisdom is that building datacenters is easy, but maybe the CW is wrong on this? If it were easy, companies would not be talking about spending $1500+/kg to put datacenters in orbit. Note that they assume they can get the chips either way, they just need somewhere to run them and they are saying it will be easier to get them orbital than to literally do what Digital Realty does now.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#935
at 2.4B a month they get buyback on both C1 and C2 in one year... or, over the useful life of their datacenters (around 7-10 years before swapping to latest tech) they will make around $201B-$288B off these two deals alone.

Elon is the greatest capital allocator of all time.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#936
post #891

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The doubt you are expressing was very justified until this week. But on June 1st, Microsoft changed the pricing for business and enterprise Copilot, and people started paying real money for using AI. Until that day, Github Copilot was charging users 4 cents per request (if they exceeded their subscription's monthly limit). Now, they charge at the API rate. I monitor my usage, and it's easily 10 times more expensive t…

This is an active conversation going on at my day job right now (and I suspect many other peoples too) Every developer (we have about 100) has Github Copilot, and interestingly some barely use it while others use it a lot (about 70% of usage comes from a handful of devs), and the dashboard shows you exactly who is using which models, and how much I definitely don't think they will just go along with paying 10/20x mor…

As of now, most people haven't figured out how to use AI productively. It takes time. Maybe 1 in 20 developers have come up with a good workflow to get AI-assisted coding done without a lot of slop. The remaining 19 either got burned a few times, or still use AI in a 2023-style: ask AI for a code snippet in a chatbox, then copy-paste it to the code base.

But one or two years from now, many more people will have learned how to be productive with AI. Knowledge will percolate.

And for all those people, the companies will ask themselves: is this guy's 20% increase in productivity worth $200 per month? If that increase in productivity is actually worth $2000 per month, then the answer will be an unequivocal yes. Not only that, but the need to switch to lower cost AI providers, so the $200 is lowered to $20 will just not be worth the extra headache of having to go through all the approvals to onboard a new vendor.

That is the Copilot's moat.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#937
post #814

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For those unaware (myself included), VT is the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF which "tracks the FTSE Global All Cap Index, covering roughly 9,000 stocks across more than 40 developed and emerging markets." I see this argument a lot online: "You need more diversity." First, you didn't provide any reason or evidence about why this is a good idea. Second, "more diversity" isn't always better. The S&P 500 has…

I do not understand how you can talk about US, EU and Japan but not mention China. Because I'd bet China is in a similar league and has better prospects than any of the three.

China is not considered a developed market nor "free". Also, in most developed markets, when the economy is strong, the stock market will boom. China has many, many years when the stock market is weak, but the economy is strong. It is hard to be excited about the Chinese stock market.

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#938

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm not saying that, it's the opposite: Gemini generated too-woke images, like all images of people was like at least 50% colored, no matter what, even if you asked it to generate images of German World War 2 soldiers, it mostly generated black people in nazi uniforms.

Your replies are non-sequitors to the discussion in this thread.

Statement “I use grok to consume current events”

Response “grok is not a reliable source for information, especially current events or politics”

Your response “but Gemini generated images that right wingers didn’t like”

Ok? Are those images the news? Is that a way to consume current events? Do you think I’m a proponent of people using LLMs to digest current events and am only against grok specifically? What exactly is your argument against mine (that grok shouldn’t be used to consume current events). Are you agreeing? Or are you suggesting that people should use grok for current events because Gemini produced images you didn’t like?

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#939
post #826

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's equities aren't really tradable. If they were it would be nice.

This is incorrect. There are lots of ETFs that now directly hold China A shares. CSI 300 index is the equiv of S&P 500 in mainland China. Also, via HK Stock Exchange, you can buy China A shares via "northbound connect". A broker like Interactive Brokers supports this type of trading and the bizarre/special currency (CNH) required for it. That said, I excluded China because it is not developed and has awful transparen…

And if you look at the composition of the indices and ETFs you realize that you aren't participating in the innovative China, but get typical developing country stocks and very limited exposure to innovation.

Also -10% over the last 5 years vs. +103% for the S&P500

Re: Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

#940
post #934

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Datacenter REITs do not directly own all those scarce wired up and powered Nvidia chips.

The stated reason SpaceX and others are talking about doing the near-impossible (orbital datacenters) for astronomical sums is that they are unable to do what e.g. Digital Realty does as its core business. Conventional wisdom is that building datacenters is easy, but maybe the CW is wrong on this? If it were easy, companies would not be talking about spending $1500+/kg to put datacenters in orbit. Note that they assu…

The main problem is that nobody is building new power except China. In space solar panels are 5x more efficient and run 24/7 and you don't need the kind of permits you need to build on earth. That, and you've got NGOs funded by China connected billionaires that relentlessly sue to stop data centers and new power in the United States, and you don't have to deal with that B.S in space because it's federally regulated and there isn't any environmental impact to sue over.
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