The product-market fit question feels premature when most usage is still developers building on top of the APIs, not end users paying directly.
I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#932Earlier quoted context omitted.
> For XXX you always want to go with XXX, not XXX Oh, hey, I recognize you. Thank you for the very forward and thorough orbital sander recommendation at Home Depot. That's exactly what I wanted to deal with on my holiday weekend. You just know so much about this and the rest of us are simple passersbys.
Yep sorry was just pulling it out my rear, not like a market trend that nearly every enterprise uses Anthropic or Openai models for coding or that Anthropic has had such ridiculous growth that they're 10x-ing year over year
I'm ribbing you for writing like a condescending guru that invalidates the evaluatory capability of your peers. Not the meat of your evaluation (not to say that it's any good either, just that it's irrelevant).
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#933They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
> ... against the actual work their company cares about doing. [...] stuff that matters
This is a key point. Some engineers are having fun doing e.g. greenfield stuff with AI that they never would have had time for otherwise. Whether the company cares about that is another question.
It's related to Goodhart’s Law. If AI token usage is a target, then you're going to get a lot of token usage, but it's not likely to correlate well to improved business outcomes.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#934[flagged]
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#935Earlier quoted context omitted.
Trying to parse the raw claims here maybe you can help me out - it’s a swindle because ROI of tokens for coding models is not positive? As in it doesn’t bring enough value to charge like the $100/mo? - enterprise customers are too dumb to see this - IPO to max out the CEO profits for what is ultimately blockchain vaporware Am I getting that right? Or am I putting words in your mouth? > it gives tons of people in the…
You kind of got it right, but the biggest loser of them all are the investors especially the index investors. They don’t even decide what they invest in but the savings that goes in funds need to invest in these stocks. It’s quite an elaborate swindle obviously. But you generate hype with underselling your core product, you claim way more usability then there is. Users will experience usability initially. Everything…
> you generate hype with underselling your core product, you claim there’s way more usability than there is
Isn’t this a contradiction?
> Everything multiplies with each other and then you put it on the market. Everybody involved makes money and you’ve succesfully extracted money from everyone who’s invested in NASDAQ index funds at the very least.
Sorry I may have totally missed what you’re saying here. Anyone in S&P has already made a lot of money thanks to effects from these companies. No one has to invest in an index fund. Markets have risk…
> That’s Anthropics marketing, yes.
Show me.
> Also their offering is not uniqe that justifies a 1 trillion valuation. The first companies are already rowing back.
That there is competition doesn’t imply they aren’t worth 1 trillion.
> The companies that have signed these enterprise deals haven’t done a ROI analysis. They had Fomo.
Also…wrong. I have seen the data at my company, everyone at scale tracks this.
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#936Anthropic isn't actually profitable from what I'm reading, a discount briefly pushed them into the black. This guy makes the case well: https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle... I'm skeptical that their current price raise is sufficient, and I'm also skeptical that most users/businesses will accept more significant price raises that will be needed. Especially for individual users, $200 a month i…
I think we could eventually get to a point where $1000/m+ consumption would be considered a bargain. I currently pay ~$150/m in tokens to cover my 1099 work. If I had to pay $1000 for those same tokens each month, I would still be massively positive on my margins. I bill customers based upon # of completed features & bugs, not total time spent at the computer. Tokens would have to more than 10x in cost before I would…
How are you billing clients when using AI? Do you pass on costs or do you multiply time saved by your hourly rate and bill that?
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#937Earlier quoted context omitted.
Trying to parse the raw claims here maybe you can help me out - it’s a swindle because ROI of tokens for coding models is not positive? As in it doesn’t bring enough value to charge like the $100/mo? - enterprise customers are too dumb to see this - IPO to max out the CEO profits for what is ultimately blockchain vaporware Am I getting that right? Or am I putting words in your mouth? > it gives tons of people in the…
> Dario and Sam are saying “if you buy our coding agent subscription you can build a game with zero skill and one shot and then be rich”? They are saying profitable companies should replace the engineers that built their systems with a subscription (while they are hiring).
Can you point to any quotes or claims? I don’t think this is accurate
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#938They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
Why 5 years? What happens in year 6?
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#939[flagged]
Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit
#940They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…
> make developers 2x, 5x, 10x as productive on stuff that matters What does this even mean? Is this about speed of development? Is this about headcount? LoC? How are coding agents contributing to productivity in places like GitHub, Shopify or Meta? I mean companies that already have an established product. I really wanna understand this because I'm not seeing that GitHub's product suddenly became so much better than…
People have been arguing about how to measure developer productivity since time immemorial. But the bottomline is that if products and features are hitting the market faster than they used to, developers are doing more with less. It's what we're seeing in my workplace.