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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#931

Post by herewulf »

gpt5 wrote: post #424
swat535 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

The reality is far more nuanced, and not clearly a win to Iran. We saw how degraded their military capabilities became when they couldn't capture a pilot on their own land for nearly 48 hours. We also saw that the number of rockets that they used "in total" has only just recently reached the number they used in the June war last year with Israel. Diplomatically, we saw Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia expelling Irani…

Not capturing the weapons officer (the pilot was quickly rescued) was a missed opportunity for Iran, not a failure. The Trump Admin was incredibly lucky there is not currently a hostage situation and no one else was killed or injured[1] in the rescue. "Merely" 10s or 100s(?) of millions of dollars in equipment was lost in the process.

A bunch of US servicemembers have died or been maimed to achieve a rocky ceasefire with the end state looking worse than before the operation.

I certainly feel for the civilians affected, but from a pure "America First" perspective, this is a complete and total US failure.

[1]: Though I'm skeptical about the truth in this when officials have been bragging about helicopters with bullet holes in them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#932

Post by NickC25 »

A good analogy to this situation is the analogy of playing chess with a pigeon, who knocks over the pieces, takes a shit on the board, struts around for a moment, and flies away.

Except in this case, the pigeon has a ton of yes-men worshiping it, and praises each of its moves as genius. Except it hasn't made any chess moves, it's literally knocked over pieces and shit on the board, leaving the board and pieces in worse shape. Worse yet - there's a narrative being built by the pigeon's yes-men that the actions by the pigeon were indeed genius, and the situation is better....and people believe the yes-men.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#933

Post by Tangurena2 »

blix wrote: post #447
swat535 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

All policy aimed at preventing nuclear Iran has one goal: buy time. I think it is hard to argue that time has not been bought (though how much and whether the price was right is another question). The only semi-stable long term option is a friendly Iranian government. The IRGC's main purpose is to occupy Iran, so anything that makes them weaker, less stable and more decentralized improves the odds of successful inter…

> a friendly Iranian government

That will take hundreds of years to accomplish. No Iranian has forgotten Operation Ajax in 1953[0] - overthrowing the lawfully elected government of Iran and replacing it with a dictator[1].

> In the current state of the world, USA interests and global economic interests are becoming increasingly decoupled

This is entirely due to Trump constantly "ripping up" previous agreements and treaties. It has become obvious to all observers that the US can no longer be trusted to act in the interests of any other nation. For their own survival, they have to become independent of US economic and political interests.

Notes:

0 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...

1 - The book The Persian Puzzle explains much of the history behind why the US/Iran relationships have always been and will always be terrible. https://www.amazon.com/Persian-Puzzle-Conflict-Between-Ameri...

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#934

Post by NickC25 »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #270
Rotdhizon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view i…

> Israel has literally nothing to lose. Israel has a lot to lose, the question is only how much of the lost will be replaced by american taxpayers' money. They're almost out of anti-air interceptors, the war they started in lebanon is going badly and iran still has tens of thousands of drones left. There's also hamas and hezbollah and more and more of the world is turning against them, be it in proper politics or eve…

Israel will be fine. They have nuclear weapons if shit really starts to get bad. They'll tell you they don't (while smirking), but they do, and have for like 70 years.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#935

Post by tfrrggh »

o10449366 wrote: post #750
dogemaster2026 wrote: post #747

[flagged]

gee, i wonder who helped put those religious fanatics in power and have helped them retain power by raining down death from the sky

Fanatics exists in every religion given enough population. How do they attain power consistently in islamic countries.

I think thats because it's easy to convert even educated open minded people to side with religion because of the incentive structure in islam.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#936

Post by drewbeck »

tristanj wrote: post #910

The ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hou…

Gonna need at least a single link to a source before I believe this. Googling provides Facebook links and YouTube videos from Fox News and AI generated “news” sites.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#937

Post by torginus »

Aloisius wrote: post #260
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

The whole concept of the ceasefire is absurd - it's like the joke that to combat the rise of suicides, the government made them punishable by death.

There's no enforcement mechanism, only big dog, small dog logic. What happens if one party breaks the ceasefire? The other starts shooting?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#938

Post by noah_buddy »

RiverStone wrote: post #836
krembo wrote: post #778

It's interesting how the hackernews-biased views of the war outcomes don't align with how Iranians themselves see that. For instance you can translate from persian the following geopolitical view which will shed a totally different light on the situation to whoever depends solely on hn comments https://x.com/i/status/2041693098833518976

Thanks for sharing perspectives from actual Iranians.

Up until a couple months ago, none of these people would even describe themselves as “Iranian.”

They would all use another term to distinguish between themselves and those living in Iran.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#939

Post by Tangurena2 »

computerex wrote: post #285
smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

[dead]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#940

Post by ghywertelling »

throw0101c wrote: post #245
ghywertelling wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a Naive question, "why aren't the discussions related to public matters be telecasted live like a football match to the whole world? why isn't the public privy to the discussions about its own future?"

> "why aren't the discussions related to public matters be telecasted live like a football match to the whole world? why isn't the public privy to the discussions about its own future?" It gives the parties more room to manoeuvre with regards to the give and take that is often/usually necessary when it comes to negotiating. If you demand X at one point, but revert so you can get Y, then the absolutists will be outrag…

There is flip side to it. If one party has pre-determined not to negotiate, but is just following the script to show offical reachout and due process, then people don't know the real reason why the talks failed?
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