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Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

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Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#931
post #889

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it’s a different country my experience in Ireland and the Netherlands has been that there’s this bizarre contempt for builders. Like “I build homes and sell them to people for money” basically makes you satan incarnate. So housebuilding is bogged down in x% social, y% “affordable” (because apparently the goal of making all housing affordable by actually building enough is unthinkable) and very little gets built…

The Netherlands is a different kind of environment because there is a calculated policy of not doing anything that could reduce home values. This trickles through all policies for any action that could meaningfully solve the housing crisis.

Well it’s basically illegal to save money so it’s no wonder people use their house as an investment

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#932

Its wild how the solution to housing costs is really just: Build more housing. Keep law and order. No it doesn’t need to be “affordable”. Yes rent control is a terrible idea. Just build more housing. Note: that the US already has plenty of housing and housing costs basically go up in areas of low crime relative to economic opportunity. If you build housing, but allow crime to rise, you have wasted everybody’s time.

New construction has already decelerated in Austin due to falling prices, which compresses already-near-zero margin on real estate development. So yes, it really is "just build more housing." The problem is: why would you build more housing as prices fall?

Why would you build more cars as prices fall?

What do you think homebuilders do? Just close up shop when the market dips?

The answer is there are companies in the business of building homes. If there is profit to be made, they will keep building. Most of the issues we have today are caused by extreme and dysfunctional regulatory regimes that destroy the return on investment by extending the process out. More time sitting on the property before building = lower investment return, and other investments end up making more sense.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#933
post #833

Up here in Denver I see all kinds of new apartments complexes going up all over. I have not seen the rents coming done because of that yet.

I think Denver has a few other things going for it that simply make it a higher value housing market, namely: 1. Mild weather - dry weather with well defined seasons without 2. Natural recreation - some of the best year-around outdoor recreation in the country 3. More diverse economy - Austin is extremely tech heavy. Anecdotally most people saw dot-com boom hit Austin much harder than 08 crisis. Tech is bleeding righ…

I have been to Austin only once for South by Southwest back in 95. As a musician I loved being in Austin, especially for that event. I do get the differences between there and Denver. I love it here. However it is getting hotter here too. It's 85 today and will be 87-88 Friday, and we are running out of water along with the rest of the Southwest. Who knows what's going to happen or where to go to if it gets real bad?

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#934

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New construction has already decelerated in Austin due to falling prices, which compresses already-near-zero margin on real estate development. So yes, it really is "just build more housing." The problem is: why would you build more housing as prices fall?

Why would you build more cars as prices fall? What do you think homebuilders do? Just close up shop when the market dips? The answer is there are companies in the business of building homes. If there is profit to be made, they will keep building. Most of the issues we have today are caused by extreme and dysfunctional regulatory regimes that destroy the return on investment by extending the process out. More time sit…

> What do you think homebuilders do? Just close up shop when the market dips?

Uhh yes. Downward price pressure is a business-destroying event in real estate development. The amount of risk developers take on with each project is pretty incredible actually.

> Why would you build more cars as prices fall?

For one, there are advantages to scale. That is hardly true (and in many cases the opposite is true -- diseconomies of scale) in real estate development.

> The answer is there are companies in the business of building homes. If there is profit to be made,

No. The question is whether there is more profit to be made from building homes than from investing e.g. in the S&P500 or US 10yr Treasuries. Otherwise investors don't finance new home construction. We are already in an environment where real estate financing is simply not a great option compared to other ways to invest money, and so construction will slow as prices go down (which is, as stated, already happening in ATX).

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#935

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent control is not 'warping markets' - it's the notion that 'homes are markets' that is 'warped' - that's the basis of the problem. The workaround is to build more dwellings, and rc generally is not an inhibitor there. Funny enough 'wealth taxes' may actually be the worst of tax of all - aka a double negative - like a double negative. What we want to do is make it so that 'rich people get rich' not from rent-seeking…

> Rent control is not 'warping markets' - it's the notion that 'homes are markets' that is 'warped' - that's the basis of the problem. something can be essential + morally important + still governed by supply/demand constraints, this is such a silly statement to make. If there was no market, there would be no efficient allocation of resources. You need to make homes abundant to have the most economically (and thus, m…

It's a bit disturbing and dystopian that one counldn't think of any other way to 'distribute things efficiently' than markets ... but worse, that even contemplating that there could be 'other ways' would be 'silly'.

This is the genteel version of "BUT THAT'S COMMUNIST!!" in response to any kind of policy that isn't rooted in a really narrow purview of markets.

Also - it's also a misrepresentation to consider that 'rent control' is somehow not quite a 'market based' solution, or, that considering 'homes' to be a civic function first, and economic issue second, somehow means they'd completely outside market functions.

"have the most economically (and thus, morally) efficient outcome." The argument I'm making here is directly against this warped sense of what value is.

Markets are just a system of rules that allocate only through the narrow purview of those rules.

We only get 'efficiency' as defined by those rules.

There are many examples, but at easy one, is that we grow our GDP substantially by getting older and sicker, and 'having more work to do' to take care of our system gone awry, or, that wars can be very profitable due to the armaments and subsequent reconstruction efforts.

Both of those by the are rooted in a similar notion - that we don't actually measure 'consumer surplus' - which is the value or 'profit' obtained by the individual, we only ever 'producer surplus'.

If we started to put 'consume surplus' as part of the GDP (impossible, because value is in the eye of the beholder, but maybe plausibly, it could be done) - then we'd see the 'consumer GDP' drop off a cliff as we got old and sick, so much that it would not make up for the increased consumer side GDP benefit of 'medical economy'.

That's just to start.

You could look at national security and justice, and how if we had to pay our soldiers for the risks they take - it would never work.

The more challenging one is to start recognizing the markets are mostly a function of power arbitrage, and not value creation.

We like to think that 'the man who builds his home, and does work for others, creates value, while the man who does nothing all day does not' - yes - that's the easiest way to see it, and it's not wrong. But most of the economy does not work that way, it works on power. Traditionally, it's rooted in real estate, now, it's also rooted in resource access and I would say finance. (And of course as always, political access and monopoly rights).

We should make 'housing' the primary focus, and use 'markets' as a 'tool' to enable social outcomes, not the other way around.

So the 'baseline things' - like basic housing, civil infrastructure, security, food security - those we have to have to be grounded in non-market terms using 'markets as tools' - and then the rest of everything, well, people can have fun, do as they please etc..

Critically - more people should to read Adam Smith, to see where he was coming from. The 'godfather' of economics was the first person to grasp it's limitations.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#936
post #577

Wow it's almost like the law of supply and demand is in fact accurate. Who would have thought basic economic 101 would be proven out? It's almost like when you allow supply to increase to meet demand the price equilibrium can move down. Shocking. I say this with a bit of righteous anger though because the moronic democrats in California want to virtue signal about housing and homelessness but they make it downright a…

I'm with you and feel your anger. So tired of California's useless virtue signaling about housing and homelessness while no progress is made for decades. California, stop messing around and start living up to your virtue signals! It's infuriating to live in California, hear all day about caring about poor people, then do nothing at all for the bottom line and in fact endeavor to make it harder and discriminate agains…

Some of the problem in California is that the population of want-to-buyers is all focused on a small number of extremely geographically constrained areas.

Their answer is always "more density" but more density isn't going to solve it - the demand is not fixed and density will not alleviate it, so there is natural pushback on ruining the area and not actually solving the problem.

The real answer here is that the valley needs to extend further south, as in the 1990s plans for companies to start building campuses in Silver Creek or further, which would require the government to incentivize such moves.

Had the dotcom lasted another two years or so, IBM, Cisco, and many others would have done the capital investment in campuses further out, and the viable housing area would have increased dramatically, but it didn't work out that way.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#937
post #853

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's part of it, but I definitely have known quite a few renters who opposed building more housing. Denial of supply and demand, as well as general dislike of "rich developers" is strong in many groups. Incentives are typically the strongest force to watch, but so are various cultural/political narratives people come up with. People clearly don't all vote in our own economic interests in many situations. I'd assume…

Do you recall exactly what kind of housing they were opposing? Because that is a major piece of context we are missing here. I don’t think I’ve ever met anybody who simply said “no more housing.” It’s usually much more specific than that, such as opposition to house flipping and STR’s, or wasteful planned communities of McMansions and concrete.

The local subreddit for my area always has tons of negative comments about any new housing development.

Some people complain it is "luxury" or even just normal and not "affordable."

If it is single family housing then people complain about the lack of density. If is apartments or condos they complain that there is already so much traffic in that area and adding thousands of new people will make it even worse.

When small old houses are bought up, torn down, and a new apartment / condo complex goes in they complain about the lack of character and soulless new development that all looks the same.

I have to agree with some of the other comments that many people never learned supply and demand or are completely incapable of understanding a for profit business.

I've seen comments about memory / RAM prices going up. Gamers are now so anti-AI because it is making their GPUs more expensive and now memory, flash, and hard drive storage as well. I've seen comments that say the government should step in and force companies to make GPUs at affordable prices. We can argue over whether health care or clean water are a human right but some people seem to think cheap GPUs are a human right.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#938

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, build more housing.

That's not a different choice. LVT makes it more expensive to hold land that's less productive than it could be, the result of which is that development is encouraged.

No, building more housing. Read the article.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#939
post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NIMBYism has never been about preserving neighborhood characteristic, or noise and traffic concerns. Menlo Park is not Big Sur. Sure, some concerns are reasonable and should be investigated, but most of the time they're bureaucratic distractions that's been weaponized by people who want to delay progress and protect their investment. For most Americans, A house is their primary savings account, retirement plan, and p…

Anecdotally, what we found in Austin was a combination of two factors: First, awareness of the futility and selfishness of "growth elsewhere" as a solution is much higher in younger people — and by younger, I mean currently under fifty. Generational turnover in Austin had been eating away at the NIMBY majority, and conversations about housing in Austin have long been polarized more by age than by left/right political…

> Austinites of that generation are experiencing mortality.

This is such a funny and novel way of saying "old people in Austin are dying" I just had to point it out.

Also, I like the way this comment is written in general. Felt easy to read for its length, and most importantly the tone stayed fun and personal while still being informative and on topic.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#940

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of housing is not to provide an investment vehicle nor should we optimize for this. Airbnb should just regulated out of existence in most urban markets because we are chronically low on housing and the city doesn't need short term rentals at all.

The purpose of most real estate is to provide shelter for people, not to sit empty and unused. That's exactly what AirBnb allows to those who are only willing to rent short term (because it's their vacation home and they want to be able to use it).

Housing someone provides a fundamentally different kind of value than offering a second home or short-term stay. A home meets an essential social need, while vacation homes and similar uses provide far less public benefit. On that scale, the social value of housing a person is vastly greater than the value of adding another short-term rental bed.

That does not mean hotels would stop being built, because developers and hotel operators are optimizing for a different kind of value. But it is more than enough reason to oppose turning even a single home into a de facto short-term hotel.

The reality is not simply that people are monetizing unused space. The ability to rent homes short term encourages people to buy more second homes than they otherwise would, because the income offsets the cost. It also encourages investment in housing that would otherwise remain in the long-term market, since owners know unused time can be monetized. Some buyers purchase properties specifically to operate them as Airbnbs, and many landlords convert homes that once served monthly or yearly tenants into short-term rentals because they can charge more, adjust rates freely, and often earn more overall.

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