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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#921

Post by cosmicgadget »

chasd00 wrote: post #335
mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

Safe but not open. The agreement Trump tweeted says ships must "coordinate" with IRGC.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#922

Post by dominicrose »

georgemcbay wrote: post #290
smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

I don't think its a victory for either Iran or the US. Iran suffered a lot of losses in terms of people and widescale destruction of infrastructure. But the US lost too, we come out of this war looking much weaker and more chaotic than we did going in, not to mention the amount of money we poured into it while accomplishing nothing (nothing we destroyed in Iran was a threat to us until we bombed them in the first pla…

It's hard to see how the US benefits because the US is geographically very far away from this region but I don't think it was an expensive war: short duration, mostly just an air campaign. IMO Trump did this to send a message to the world.

Gulf countries and Israel should feel much better though, despite the losses, knowing that Iran's capacity is now limited to terrorist-like harassment. This is not the end however as the US, Israel and hopefully other countries should continue to monitor Iran closely.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#923

Post by abustamam »

phendrenad2 wrote: post #916
tristanj wrote: post #910

The ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hou…

Maybe. I'll wait for confirmation from sources outside of the usual "fast news" channels like X, which are full of disinformation.

Part of this "fast news" channel also includes POTUS's incessant "Truths" which are also full of disinformation even about his own administration.

Really hard to find facts these days!

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#924

Post by mgfist »

chasd00 wrote: post #335
mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

Change this line from : "so basically Iran gets everything it wants"

to "so basically Iran would get everything it wants under this plan".

I'm not so dumb to understand that this will be the final plan, just commenting that this is incredibly bad for the US as is laid out.

> Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue.

Speaking of this community being kinda dumb - do you really think this ceasefire is enough for all ships to go on their merry way? Deals mentioned over social media are not enough to convince insurance companies that all is safe. And 12 hours later we now have evidence of this - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/strait-hormuz-sh...

Also, my original point is that there is nothing in that deal that is a better long-term outcome than what we had before the war. Maybe that will change in the final deal, but the fact that the starting point of the negotiation is 100% on Iran's side is not where you want to be.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#925

Post by bayindirh »

tristanj wrote: post #910

The ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hou…

LiveUAMap shows no such activity currently. Normally it provides information pretty quickly if something like that has happened.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#926

Post by abustamam »

henry2023 wrote: post #323
Rotdhizon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view i…

If the war (population displacement / genocide / ethnic cleansing, you can call it however you want to) in Gaza has taught the world something is that the current Israeli regime is visceral and they clearly think they are above any international conventions. Of course they will not stop bombing any of its neighbors until we 1) stop funding and 2) start sanctioning them for their war crimes. I wonder if regime change…

I'm not sure why you got downvoted. The current admin seems to love regime changes. Why not Israel? Israel is killing medics in Lebanon (supposedly collateral damage but they don't see it that way https://www.npr.org/2026/04/05/nx-s1-5763606/lebanon-medics-... )

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#927

Post by Bubble1296 »

Rotdhizon wrote: post #195
chatmasta wrote: post #126

Better article with text: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-w... > Israel will also agree to the two-week ceasefire, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official, adding that the ceasefire would enter effect as soon as the blockade of the strait of Hormuz ceased There’s the catch.

The US is one thing but there is no possible way Israel will stop bombing. They will openly say they will, and continue to do so. It just gives them more breathing room to calculate bigger and more serious strikes. Israel has literally nothing to lose. The US is taking all the heat for any actions in Iran. Israel and Iran are mortal enemies, one can not continue to exist while the other lives, this is how they view i…

I'm just curious here: if we really think about today's conflict in the Middle East regarding the GCC, Israel, the US, and Europe, we can trace this back to US-USSR relations in 1945, as well as the 1980s leading up to 2001. I'm wondering what are everyone's finding on this and what are your opinions?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#928

Post by majani »

ghywertelling wrote: post #149
idle_zealot wrote: post #80

We already attacked Iran twice during "talks," is there any indication that we mean it this time, or are we just going to bomb them again while negotiations are ongoing?

I have a Naive question, "why aren't the discussions related to public matters be telecasted live like a football match to the whole world? why isn't the public privy to the discussions about its own future?"

There are ego maniacs and people from shame cultures who would be animalistically obstinate in the face of globally televised embarrassment

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#929

Post by Tangurena2 »

none2585 wrote: post #872
nslsm wrote: post #738

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. That’s not the reason. The US is an occupied government.

Occupied by who exactly? We elected this government, we get what we deserve.

One third of the voters sat the 2024 election out. To those voters, there was no daylight between either of the 2 candidates.

And to give an example of the viability of third party candidates... I used to live in Colorado. To get onto the ballot as a Presidential candidate as a minor party candidate (aka neither D nor R candidate) one needs to get 10 people to swear to be Electoral College voters (if that candidate wins). Many times, those third party candidates get less than 10 votes in the entire state of Colorado.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#930

Post by majani »

tristanj wrote: post #526
hdivider wrote: post #477

Let me articulate the thing which I believe is on many people's minds: What is the chance the president will order a nuclear strike on Iran as this war proceeds? We would hope the odds are vanishingly small, because doing so would be profoundly disadvantageous. But the same was true for initiating this war in the first place. The logic -- such as it is -- of some people in power may lead them to conclude once more th…

No chance. A nuclear strike on Iran won't achieve anything that a large number of conventional strikes would.

The shock and awe from a nuclear strike is unmatched
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