Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#921

Post by asdff » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:22 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

>Russia has been trying to do that to Ukraine for years now.

To be fair this is basically a weakness of modern kid gloves warfare not really due to any asymmetric advantage. If the year were say 1941, Kiev and the rest of Ukraine would have been reduced to rubble and conquered years ago by now and not thanks to technology but the state of what is seen as politically acceptable. Really, Putin could do this today if he really wanted to waste a couple million ukrainians. There is no technological moat protecting kiev from destruction today. People claim if he did something like that then western nations would rally to arms and prevent that, but they said the same before he invaded ukraine in the manner they did, too. Maybe Putin doesn't even realize the bluff is a bluff, or maybe he does have a bit of a conscious unlike Stalin.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#922

Post by dinkumthinkum » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC

venzaspa wrote: post #716

kqr wrote: post #628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Having difficulty projecting force from the air with fighter bombers launched from air craft carriers and refueling caravans from the Indian Ocean or Mediterranean Sea This is not to be underestimated. It is very rare to be able to project military power far from one's capital. That the US is able to do it at all is remarkable. We should not expect it to be easy.

This is in large part because the US relies on their bases in allied countries at their grace.

Their grace? Who powers NATO? People need to realize that just because you don’t like something like America, it doesn’t mean beliefs that are divorced from reality about it are true.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#923

Post by asdff » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #225

>The era of carrier-dominated airpower is fading, as cheap, unmanned anti-ship weapons reshape naval warfare, whether US planners are ready for it or not. is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. Also straits being closed to shipping by whatever power co…

>destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are.

When you have a hammer that costs billions of dollars in budget you tend to find excuses to use it lest you lose that budget. Imagine if their were no carriers. US airpower just takes off from gulf state airbases and same thing happens to iran.

Unless the US is fighting an air battle in the middle of the ocean, they can probably get by without carriers.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#924

Post by asdff » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:42 PM UTC

PunchyHamster wrote: post #255

tim333 wrote: post #225

>The era of carrier-dominated airpower is fading, as cheap, unmanned anti-ship weapons reshape naval warfare, whether US planners are ready for it or not. is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. Also straits being closed to shipping by whatever power co…

> is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. The country with 0.3% of global spending in military is putting a noticeable dent in assets of country that has 35% of global spending in military and are begging allies for help coz they can't even stop the dro…

>That is not to say carriers are going away any time soon, you need to ship the firepower to the target somehow, but one filled to 3/4 with drones would probably be far more effective

Why would you do it at the slow speed of a carrier though? Just load up a couple C17 or B1B and you can dump that payload anywhere in the world in under a day I expect. Better yet, engineer a minuteman to hold a drone swarm. Deliver that swarm anywhere in the world in 20 minutes.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#925

Post by jvanderbot » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:43 PM UTC

dlisboa wrote: post #903

jvanderbot wrote: post #890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think about it this way - if Russia had the US Navy's task force near Ukraine, and the level of air dominance that US has in Iran, do you think Russia would do anything differently? Would they, for example, be making 100s - 1000s of daily aerial strikes anywhere in Ukraine? Because US _does_ have that, and so it _does_ significantly change the calculus. Unless you think it doesn't. In which case, we just disagree.

In the matter of drone production, which was my point, it doesn’t change the calculus. It is evident that short of regime change or popular upheaval Iran can produce or import drones indefinitely and the only thing that can stop it is a ground invasion. The US Navy or any navy can’t destroy that production from the air. The evidence is pretty clear on that. We see that is already the case in Ukraine or with Hezbollah…

Option b - we just disagree then

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#926

Post by asdff » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC

woeirua wrote: post #419

This gives drones way too much credit. The USN knew that Iran could block the strait of Hormuz back in the 80s. Anti-ship missiles were already effective and plentiful enough to do it then and they’ve only gotten more lethal since. The long term solution here is to build pipelines that eliminate the need to sail up the strait. Why this wasn’t done already is beyond me.

Well pipeline costs money and would be deeply provocative for Iran to lose this massive "kill the global economy" button they lord over today. They'd probably have their houthis or hezbollah try and sabotage construction until costs are too unaffordable relative to paying the bribe to IRGC to sail through freely.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#927

Post by asdff » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 6:48 PM UTC

mayama wrote: post #392

jandrewrogers wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aerial drone capable of materially damaging a modern navy ship costs $1-2M a piece. Anything much cheaper doesn't have the range, survivability, or required warhead to do much more than scratch the paint. A cheap drone is only useful against soft targets. It is the reason Ukraine is scaling up heavy cruise missile production even though they already have vast numbers of cheap long-range drones. Being "cheap" isn't…

> An aerial drone capable of materially damaging a modern navy ship costs $1-2M a piece. Anything much cheaper doesn't have the range, survivability, or required warhead to do much more than scratch the paint. Problem isn't a single drone, it's the cost of intercepters. Iran could launch a swarm of 100s of drones with few antiship missiles mixed in to hone in at same time. CSG has to spend $million+ interceptors and…

US has some laser system they don't talk about much. All that came out is it was used in el paso in friendly fire incident then the story seemed to be swept under the rug.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#928

Post by pas » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 7:29 PM UTC

neerajsi wrote: post #444

woeirua wrote: post #419

This gives drones way too much credit. The USN knew that Iran could block the strait of Hormuz back in the 80s. Anti-ship missiles were already effective and plentiful enough to do it then and they’ve only gotten more lethal since. The long term solution here is to build pipelines that eliminate the need to sail up the strait. Why this wasn’t done already is beyond me.

Aren't pipelines even easier to target and destroy than boats?

also easier to put some soil over them. MBS for example loves moving lots of sand in a nice straight line!

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#929

Post by Ajedi32 » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:04 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #912

Ajedi32 wrote: post #854

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blocking the strait is Iran's doing, not the US's. The US attacked them yes, but they were the ones who responded by threatening to blow up the ships of innocent third parties. They couldn't hurt the US, so they decided to hurt you instead. Why the world is tolerating this behavior as if it's a legitimate strategy and blaming it on the US is beyond me.

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever read on HN and I've been here for a while. Iran was always going to blockade the strait of Hormuz if attacked, as would any other country in their position. What do you expect, to tell them to play by some imaginary set of rules while the US is setting the rulebook itself on fire? It's almost as dumb as expecting Ukraine to allow russian oil to transit their territory.

I'm not sure what your point is. Everyone knew they were going to irrationally decide to threaten the ships of uninvolved third parties therefore it's not their fault for doing it?

Ukraine is blocking Russian oil, not the oil of random uninvolved neighboring countries. And the strait is in no way "Iran's territory" anymore than you could say it's the US's territory just because they could also theoretically block traffic through there if they wanted.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#930

Post by xorcist » Wed, Apr 01, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC

psychoslave wrote: post #685

matheusmoreira wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how nukes work. When it comes to nuclear weapons, the world is divided into haves and have-nots. Anyone lacking effective nuclear response can be steamrolled by those who do with total impunity. The USA has been attacked before but it has never been invaded and forced to fight a war on its own soil against foreign enemies. It's possible that they unconsciously believe war is something they bring to others, nev…

What was 9/11 if not military actions on USA own soils? Like, sure it can be labelled terrorism rather than "conventional military intervention", but psyops apart, on practical level that’s typical asymmetric/guerrilla warfare.

"Military action", perhaps, but that is a very vague term. You replied to someone about "fighting foreign troops on own soil" which describes a ground invasion. 9/11 was something else.

It is USA did not respond with any military force. The response, if any, was behind closed doors and we may never know the details. The only thing we know is that relationships with the Saudis are closer than ever. Journalists aren't even allowed to question why they chop up their regime critics in small pieces and put them in a box because that is considered "impolite".

The public response was largely within domestic policy. New laws, new government agencies, more money spent on the military. It was also alluded to when fighting the continuation war with Iraq, but nothing was ever said explicitly about that.