Earlier quoted context omitted.
>>Sure, but once you reach the point where you have a lot of money in the market you probably won't enjoy watching 50% of it disappear, even if it means your next auto investment is for a nice bargain price. I assume I am investing to build wealth. That means my goal is to never spend down my wealth. When I retire, I am withdrawing a maximum 4% a year and expect my portfolio to average >6% per year. When I die I will…
> my goal is to never spend down my wealth Never spend it, but you're ok with it being taken from you? You're a special case retiree if you can watch the market take half of your life savings and cheer it on. Especially with a 4% withdrawal rate, which fails a lot of 30 year backtests. > I am withdrawing a maximum 4% a year and expect my portfolio to average >6% per year. When I die I will own the largest number of s…
Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
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Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#922Earlier quoted context omitted.
I guess it depends on your circumstances. In Europe, for instance, the cost of a degree is sometimes quite low. My gateway from tech to law was a part-time masters degree in political science, and which cost around 200 euros a semester (in Germany). That degree gave me enough experience to then apply for a PhD in law. Which brings me to the next point. Doing a law degree and passing the bar is perhaps the obvious pat…
May I ask if you make comparable money to when you were in tech? This sounds like a good career-shift for me but I wouldn't want to sacrifice current quality of life.
For posterity, if you're reading this and are interested, feel free to drop me an email if you have questions.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#923I really do wonder if any of those rock star $100m++ hires managed to get a 9-figure sign-on bonus, or if the majority have year(s) long performance clauses. Imagine being paid generational wealth, and then the house of cards comes crashing down a couple of months later.
None of them are getting $100m+ packages. Zuck himself even debunked that myth. But the media loves to run with it because it generates clicks.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#924Earlier quoted context omitted.
The ponzu scheme of SPY is great until it stops. 10% of America’s payroll gets lumped into it each month and generational wisdom is you get a 10% ROI despite the economy growing 2%. At some point that will collapse, and it won’t be pretty.
> The ponzu scheme of SPY is great until it stops TINA (there is no alternative). Inflation will eat your cash. Bonds hardly generate (real) returns unless you want to take big risks with duration. Real estate is over inflated. Gold is speculative. Crypto is...not real. What's left?
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#925Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." I totally agree with you... though the other day, I did think the same thing about the 8bit era of video games.
Speaking of Netflix - I think the image, video, audio, world model, diffusion domains should be treated 100% separately from LLMs. They are not the same thing. Image and video AI is nothing short of revolutionary. It's already having huge impact and it's disrupting every single business it touches. I've spoken with hundreds of medium and large businesses about it. They're changing how they bill clients and budget pro…
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#926Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#927Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a structural problem with our economy, much larger than just Facebook. Due its large scale concentration, the allocation of capital in the economy as a whole has become far less efficient over the last 20 years.
But always remember, it's not technically a monopoly! Boy am I tired of that one. We desperately need more smaller companies and actual competition but nobody seems to even be trying
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#928I’ve never seen so much evidence for a bubble yet so much potential to be the biggest Thing ever. Just getting a lot of mixed signals right now. Not sure what to think.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#929Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is why I ignore anything that CEOs say about AI in the news. Examples, AGI in a few years, most jobs will be obsolete, etc.
Author Ted Chiang is the only celebrity AI kibitzer pundit I wholly agree with. Paraphrasing: Capital will use / is using AI to further bludgeon Labor.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#930Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The ponzu scheme of SPY is great until it stops TINA (there is no alternative). Inflation will eat your cash. Bonds hardly generate (real) returns unless you want to take big risks with duration. Real estate is over inflated. Gold is speculative. Crypto is...not real. What's left?
Shorts om the ponzian pyramids.