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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#921

Post by jayd16 »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #813
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

This is like asking if tariffs are so bad, why don't you notice large price swings in your local grocer right now? In complex systems, you can't necessarily perceive the result of large internal changes, especially not with the tiny amount of vibes sampling you're basing this on. You really don't have the pulse on how fast the average company is shipping new code changes, and I don't see why you think you would know…

Maybe not a great analogy. The market reacted instantly and you can see prices fluctuate almost as fast as tariff policy.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#922

Post by techpineapple »

Izkata wrote: post #535
SteveNuts wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A little further on and it'll be writers, actors, etc. The tech is going to have to be absolutely flawless, otherwise the uncanny-valley nature of AI "actors" in a movie will be as annoying as when the audio and video aren't perfectly synced in a stream. At least that's how I see it..

This was made a little over a week ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaTech/comments/1ksjcsr/this_vid... For most of them I'm not seeing any of those issues.

I mean, it’s very uncanny valley, I would not want to watch a full movie of that. It’s so close! I mean it could be next year! Or it could be 20 years,

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#923

Post by bravesoul2 »

darth_avocado wrote: post #8

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

How to move to post-capitalism is the question. We need something money-like to motivate but something different.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#924

Post by wonderwonder »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Saw something similar the other day. X was awash with stories that IBM was laying off several thousand people in their HR dept. being let go due to Ai. Then over the course of the day the story shifted to IBM was outsourcing them all to India. Was a very interesting transition, seemed intentional.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#925

Post by wonderwonder »

immibis wrote: post #786
latchkey wrote: post #782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TACO

For those unaware, the "TACO trade" is when Wall Street investors trade based on the principle that "Trump Always Chickens Out". For example, buying in a tariff-induced dip on the principle that he'll probably repeal the tariffs. Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it.

yeah, I thought the same thing. Steel tariff announcement is the first real test. Announcing the US Steel merger? / purchase? at the same time I think is part of the plan. I think he is going to stick this one out to prove them wrong. Would be interesting to see if TACO is even real, I could see someone on wall street opening a ton of puts, making the story up and then leaking the fake story to the reporter.

Mission accomplished.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#926

Post by alfiedotwtf »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Bingo!

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#927

Post by Lu2025 »

e40 wrote: post #887
rbultje wrote: post #880

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a weird take. Employees are supposed to be business expenses, that's the core idea of running a business: profit = revenue - expenses, where expenses are personnel / materials, and pay taxes over profit. Since the R&D change, businesses can't fully expense employees and need to pay (business) taxes over their salaries. Employees - of course - still pay personal taxes also (as was always the case).

Yeah, free is a bit of a odd take. ! ZIRP + section 174 was a huge simultaneous blow to tech. I would add one more: me too-ism from CEOs following Musk after the twitter reductions. I think many tech CEOs (e.g., Zuck) hate their workforce with a passion and used the layoff culture to unwind things and bring their workforce to heel (you might be less vocal in this sort of environment... think of the activists that use…

> me too-ism from CEOs following Musk after the twitter reductions

I see evidence of a collusion. My friends at several tech companies (software and hardware) received very similar sounding emails in similar time frame. I think the goal was "salary compression". Management was terrified of the turnover and salary growth so they decided to act. They threw a bunch of people on the labor market at once to cool it down. It would normalize eventually but you don't need long. Fired H1-B holders have to find a new job within 2 months or self deport.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#928

Post by esperent »

rglover wrote: post #831
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

IMO this is dead on. AI is a hell of a scapegoat for companies that want to save face and pretend that their success wasn't because of cheap money being pumped into them. And in a world addicted to status games, that's a gift from the heavens.

ZIRP is an American thing? In that case maybe we could try comparisons with the job markets in other developed Western countries that didn't have this policy. If it was because of ZIRP, then their job markets should show clearly different patterns.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#929

Post by antithesizer »

absurdo wrote: post #429
ben_w wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Game theory/Nash equilibrium/Prisoner's Dilemma, and the turkey's perspective in the problem of induction. So far, for any given automation, each actor gets to cut their own costs to their benefit — and if they do this smarter than anyone else, they win the market for a bit. Every day the turkey lives, they get a bit more evidence the farmer is an endless source of free food that only wants the best for them. It's ea…

Basically if anyone has an iota of sensibility you should have never taken sama, Zuckerberg, Gates, or anyone else of that sort at face value. When they tell you they’re doing things for the good of humanity, look at what the other hand is up to.

>or anyone else of that sort

This category is expansive enough to make fools of almost everyone on hn.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#930

Post by Lu2025 »

wonderwonder wrote: post #924
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Saw something similar the other day. X was awash with stories that IBM was laying off several thousand people in their HR dept. being let go due to Ai. Then over the course of the day the story shifted to IBM was outsourcing them all to India. Was a very interesting transition, seemed intentional.

IBM seemed to outsource recruiting to Indian firms too and it's awful. The accounts who contact me on LinkedIn are grossly unprofessional and downright nasty.
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