Earlier quoted context omitted.
Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?
I dunno. Somebody literally wrote a guidebook for him to follow, but I haven't even glanced over it. The stuff I've seen people quote from the book have all been stupid, but the kind of stupidity seems to be a "do X, so you'll get Y" where "Y" is really bad and the author thinks it's good. So I guess I do expect some kind of coherence from him. That said, I don't remember anybody claiming Project 25 talks about tarif…
Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#922Is it just the historical legacy of international trade that tariffs apply only to physical goods, but not to something like software-as-a-service subscriptions, digital media, or intellectual property? As the latter categories are more representative of US exports, it would surely be an interesting escalation if other countries were to start including them in their “retaliatory” tariffs.
I think partly the historical legacy, but also the ease of enforcement and the fact that lower tariffs and services have trended together. Collecting taxes on goods flowing through a limited number of physical locations is much much easier than trying to audit the client list of a huge number of foreign service providers. Agreed that other countries are considering this.
You don't need to hit a huge number of service providers because the USA market is highly concentrated.
That's why you read things like «The Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), a nuclear option that has yet to be deployed, would empower the EU executive to hit U.S. service industries such as tech and banking». https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-trade-bazooka-anti-coerci...
You can just pick the top 10 biggest financial and tech firms and be done with it.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#923Earlier quoted context omitted.
>From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury You're making it seem that there's a plan ... but what if this is just regular incompetence coupled with capricious behavior from a chaos agent? I'm watching various officials give interviews and all of them are non-committal as it pertains to expectations. Why? Because none of them actually know!!!…
I'd like to expand out why I hold this belief. The political cohort behind the president is roughly in two halves. The first half are the original MAGA crowd (looking out for the working class, pro-liberty, anti-woke, etc.). The second half are the billionaire crowd. The second group are active on pod casts, on Twitter/X, and are partly represented in government (directly or as advisors). An easy way to follow up on…
They could just raise taxes. Detonating a bomb under the global financial system just to avoid raising taxes is still stupid. Trump is stupid.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#924Happy ~liberation~ market manipulation day!
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#925Genius move. Set the trap (massive global tariffs that seem irrational) and wait for target (china) to retaliate. Once the bait is taken, alienate china and take the pressure off everyone else. New reality still departure from previous order but feels better and gives everyone 90 days to figure it out. Meanwhile china is trapped and isolated.
Why not just skip everyone else to start with
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#926Earlier quoted context omitted.
The market doesn't like this. All the professional investors got out ages ago (check out Berkshire's dumping) and are dumping to bagholders. Large fund holders are hanging on because they still make fees and it keeps their AUM up there and everyone else is dying at the same rate. Foreign investors are pulling bonds out because the currency is at risk. The market is being manipulated daily and there is no involvement…
You're making me feel better about missing the bump today. I got out over a week ago before things went completely bonkers. Was planning on getting back in when I had a sense the volatility had diminished. Came back from a meeting to find things were halfway back to where I sold and started to feel bummed. Guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.
Never feel bad for what you didn’t make.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#927Is anyone sure this is not stock manipulation? Honest question.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#928i wonder why the rest of the world doesn't just come together for a while and stop trading / providing raw materials to the u.s. for let's say a year or so. isn't this all just a huge pile of bluff poker?
this is what BRICS floated trying to remove the USD as reserve currency. now they gone all quiet when trump threatened 100% tariffs. plus remember trump could threaten nuclear attack on the ringleader.
The USD will be removed at some point if trump keeps his dumb antics.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#929"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…
Or maybe investors didn't buy treasuries because they were in on the scam all along. They wanted to stay liquid because the plan was always to crash the markets and spook foreign investors while US investors are informed to wait for the tweet about the 90 day delay and buy cheap stocks.
Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries
#930I wonder if the stock markets will learn to disregard the US president for the next 4 years
Serious question: what's with the wave of utterly stupid comments on HN?
Is it yuppie college grads working in silicon valley startups who have always had a thick abstraction layer between them and the system that gives them their paycheck? Is it trolls? Is it lifelong diehard contrarians (the same thing as trolls really)? Is it something else?