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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#921

Post by therealdrag0 »

audunw wrote: post #793
billychuck21st wrote: post #604

Those thinking China vs Taiwan is like Russia vs Ukraine is greatly mistaken. The Chinese army after decades of build up is way stronger than Russia's, the enire PLA navy and airforce are built for a war with Taiwan. Ukraine still has Europe, Taiwan only has Japan, and has no border to any other countries. If the US wants to intervene, it must throw in its full weight, like the entire pacific fleet and some more, oth…

Russia has energy independence and food security. China has neither. USA could achieve a lot just by blockading China, something China is in no position to challenge since most of their navy is a brown water navy. Yeah, they can probably fight fairly well for a year or two with their reserves (depending on how much of the reserves are actually there.. corruption is an issue). But after that they risk catastrophic des…

I remember reading on Wikipedia that Taiwan imports large amounts of oil and NG for its electricity grid, and it only has 1 week of buffered capacity.

That seems like it was be very easy to exploit. Modern society especially dense cities doesn’t seem very resilient to lack of power.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#922

Post by rurp »

makeitdouble wrote: post #902
rurp wrote: post #850

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear proliferation is the only logical response to this administration. Tripling the number of nuclear armed countries will greatly increase the odds of a hot conflict breaking out which risks the safety of everyone in the world. Of course this fairly straightforward calculus seems beyond what trump/musk are capable of and they are actively working to make Americans safer and less prosperous is countless ways.

At some point having nukes might not make a difference though. To quote the mean, when everyone is special nobody is anymore, and having proxy access to nukes could be enough as a deterrent (e.g. being in an alliance that triggers a nuclear response in case of nuclear attack should be enough ?)

The problem is that wars inevitably break out between countries. They are bad enough with conventional means, but wars with nuclear arsenals can quickly scale to unimagineable catastrophies.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#923

Post by randerson »

rurp wrote: post #850
mullingitover wrote: post #843

I was surprised to learn Taiwan has dabbled in nuclear weapons in the past. They actually got caught developing them and had to swear they'd stop. Given that the US is doing a professional wrestling 'heel turn' and is now The Bad Guys, I wouldn't be surprised if, like NK, they just come out and announce that they have nukes. Honestly, and this is bad for the world but smart in a game theory sense, I think a lot of co…

Nuclear proliferation is the only logical response to this administration. Tripling the number of nuclear armed countries will greatly increase the odds of a hot conflict breaking out which risks the safety of everyone in the world. Of course this fairly straightforward calculus seems beyond what trump/musk are capable of and they are actively working to make Americans safer and less prosperous is countless ways.

"The only way to stop a bad guy with a nuke is with a good guy with a nuke."

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#924

Post by makeitdouble »

jychang wrote: post #915
makeitdouble wrote: post #902

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point having nukes might not make a difference though. To quote the mean, when everyone is special nobody is anymore, and having proxy access to nukes could be enough as a deterrent (e.g. being in an alliance that triggers a nuclear response in case of nuclear attack should be enough ?)

Eh "when everyone is special nobody is anymore" is strongly not true when it comes to nukes and MAD. This is obvious.

> This is obvious

In your own response you've extended the subject to MAD. And there are dozens of other factors that will impact a country's geopolitical position.

None of this is obvious.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#925

Post by makeitdouble »

rurp wrote: post #922
makeitdouble wrote: post #902

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point having nukes might not make a difference though. To quote the mean, when everyone is special nobody is anymore, and having proxy access to nukes could be enough as a deterrent (e.g. being in an alliance that triggers a nuclear response in case of nuclear attack should be enough ?)

The problem is that wars inevitably break out between countries. They are bad enough with conventional means, but wars with nuclear arsenals can quickly scale to unimagineable catastrophies.

This the reason no nukes were dropped since WW2, and why I also think the next mass massacre won't be from nukes but any other mean that won't have the same international framework.

Vietnam wasn't nukes, and it wasn't just a fluke. Gaza wasn't nuked, yet the whole area is now flat.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#926

Post by arbitrary_name »

grepexdev wrote: post #873
NicoJuicy wrote: post #861

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Threatening to annex Greenland ( Denmark) Threatening to annex Canada and start a trade war to try to compulse them. Invoking Canadian nationalism instead. Note: he arranged the previous "trade deal" he claims to hate now. Starting a trade war with Mexico, this is actually a source of Fentanyl and I can understand. Camerading with dictators ( Russia), voting the same as them in the UN. Claiming Russia isn't the aggre…

> US is getting more and more hate from literally everywhere in a very short time because of that. A lot is changing very quick and it won't take 4 years until Trump is gone. > The entire world is pretty sure that Trump will take the US in a dictatorship and is going to loosen ties. Do you have a source for this or is it just some vibey rant? That last part seems ridiculous.

What seems ridiculous about it? Aggressive expansion of presidential power. A compliant judiciary that just handed the president immunity while in office. Constant comments about not having elections 'next time around'. Erosion of first amendment rights. Concentrated media ownership. Constant outright lies while in office.

He is giving many good reasons to be anxious or concerned. Are these normal behaviors? Is his conduct likely to weaken our institutions, rather then strengthen them?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#927

Post by dilyevsky »

RealityVoid wrote: post #824
dralley wrote: post #774

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone wants to think there is always a "pragmatic" reason. It helps to think that there is always a rational cause for everything, every decision that is made. And we map cynicism about our own politicians onto everyone else, thinking that surely they don't mean what they say either. There's not always a rational reason. Ideology and nationalism are real things. World leaders do not always act in "rational" ways,…

Bingo! Trying to assign reason to emotional decisions is like reading tea leaves. And we're all subject to these emotional forces.

On the contrary - i don't see the value in playing couch psychoanalyst when there's a perfectly legit realpolitik reason available.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#928

Post by NicoJuicy »

grepexdev wrote: post #873
NicoJuicy wrote: post #861

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Threatening to annex Greenland ( Denmark) Threatening to annex Canada and start a trade war to try to compulse them. Invoking Canadian nationalism instead. Note: he arranged the previous "trade deal" he claims to hate now. Starting a trade war with Mexico, this is actually a source of Fentanyl and I can understand. Camerading with dictators ( Russia), voting the same as them in the UN. Claiming Russia isn't the aggre…

> US is getting more and more hate from literally everywhere in a very short time because of that. A lot is changing very quick and it won't take 4 years until Trump is gone. > The entire world is pretty sure that Trump will take the US in a dictatorship and is going to loosen ties. Do you have a source for this or is it just some vibey rant? That last part seems ridiculous.

I work for an international company, we talk.

Check your own resources / circle. It's pretty easy to verify.

Ps. Don't argue against the dictator https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0q184n7qnjo

Many don't seem to realize that removing bureaucracy and installing loyalists is exactly how a dictator becomes a dictator

And that's exactly what Trump is doing.

Eg. 6 january, it's really not that hard to see that Trump wants to cling to power and just earn an insane amount of money ( Trump coin, Melaniacoin, ... ), ignoring court orders, ... ( It's project 2025 and happening for weeks)

Claiming to have won the previous elections, with no proof

Do you have any proof that he isn't? Everything seems to support my opinion that Trump wants to be a dictator. He literally said so himself.

"I'll be a dictator for one day", we're currently 6 weeks in.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#929

Post by snailmailstare »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

Its a total waste to try to quietly appease. If they want something out of the current administration they need to humiliate it and then barely give it enough to save face.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#930

Post by NicoJuicy »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #861
buzzert wrote: post #856

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what makes the US "The Bad Guys" in the same sentence that mentions North Korea and China?

Threatening to annex Greenland ( Denmark) Threatening to annex Canada and start a trade war to try to compulse them. Invoking Canadian nationalism instead. Note: he arranged the previous "trade deal" he claims to hate now. Starting a trade war with Mexico, this is actually a source of Fentanyl and I can understand. Camerading with dictators ( Russia), voting the same as them in the UN. Claiming Russia isn't the aggre…

6 hours later:

- re-iterated threats about Greenland ( one way or another we'll get it)

- tarrifs India

- tarrifs South Korea

- tarrifs China ( that one I get)

- Seize Panama canal ( forgot that)

- threatening US students and schools for protesting

- removing a black congressmen from Trump's speech

- banned intelligence sharing to Ukraine

Ho boy, at this rate. No one will be left from US allies within months.

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