The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins • Hacker News Board

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#921

Post by macspoofing » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:18 PM UTC

shagmin wrote: post #908

macspoofing wrote: post #814

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Would Fauci have even known? So maybe he finds out before making statements? I've lost faith in Fauci when he admitted he lied about the efficacy of masks early on in the pandemic. He literally came out and stated he lied in order to make sure frontline healthcare workers had enough PPE. That was the most insane statement I've ever heard a public health leader make - lying about healthcare to the public that may res…

>the population would understand I don't like these "strategic" lies either. And I agree the population in general would understand , but I think there'd still have been plenty of people that would've hoarded every mask possible, and at the time they had to make decisions based on possible scenarios, whereas now we have hindsight. Especially if things were handled differently in the beginning and the mask vs non-mask…

>And I agree the population in general would understand, but I think there'd still have been plenty of people that would've hoarded every mask possible

And many people did hoard masks, and toilet paper, and sanitizers. So Fauci solved nothing except destroy trust in public health authorities. It also wasn't the last time that he lied for 'people's own good'.

I believed him. I did. I don't believe him anymore.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#922

Post by macspoofing » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:21 PM UTC

quickthrowman wrote: post #900

macspoofing wrote: post #814

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Would Fauci have even known? So maybe he finds out before making statements? I've lost faith in Fauci when he admitted he lied about the efficacy of masks early on in the pandemic. He literally came out and stated he lied in order to make sure frontline healthcare workers had enough PPE. That was the most insane statement I've ever heard a public health leader make - lying about healthcare to the public that may res…

> What's sad is that the population would understand if you just told them the truth, namely that masks help, but our frontline works desperately need them so getting them masks and PPE is a priority. Maybe elsewhere, but not in America. This is one of the most selfish/individualist countries on earth.

>Maybe elsewhere, but not in America. This is one of the most selfish/individualist countries on earth.

That's a disgusting statement. People are people. And the vast majority of people in every country are good people.

It's also not true, but even if it was, he has no right to lie to people about their healthcare and well-being. You can't do that because this kind of lie actually hurt people who would have wore a mask (homemade or otherwise) but didn't (and maybe got sick or died), all because they trusted him.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#923

Post by macspoofing » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

lovecg wrote: post #902

macspoofing wrote: post #814

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Would Fauci have even known? So maybe he finds out before making statements? I've lost faith in Fauci when he admitted he lied about the efficacy of masks early on in the pandemic. He literally came out and stated he lied in order to make sure frontline healthcare workers had enough PPE. That was the most insane statement I've ever heard a public health leader make - lying about healthcare to the public that may res…

And in case there was any doubt he also came out and said he intentionally lied about the required level of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity [0] so that people don’t get too discouraged. He seems to be squarely in the “ends justify the means” camp. While the effectiveness of that is debatable, I find it hard to believe anything he says at this point. [0] “In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci ac…

Yeah, I've seen that too. It's unbelievable that the press gave (and continues to give) him a pass.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#924

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

bartimus wrote: post #681

Jarwain wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are so many "shocking" articles, but here's something I don't get: The closest genetic match is only 3.8% similar. When it only has 29,903 base pairs, that's 1,136 mutations. I'm no bioscientist but my friends who are tell me that's a lot of changes, and that experiments might change a few base pairs or proteins at a time. A lab leak theory doesn't explain how gain of function study resulted in so many mutation…

> The closest genetic match is only 3.8% similar. How did you come by 3.8%?

It's not. From the article, it's 96.2% identical. 3.8% different.

"But they also reported that it was 96.2% identical to a coronavirus sequence in their possession called RaTG13, which was previously detected in “Yunnan province.” They concluded that RaTG13 was the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2.

In the following months, as researchers around the world hunted for any known bat virus that might be a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, Shi Zhengli offered shifting and sometimes contradictory accounts of where RaTG13 had come from and when it was fully sequenced. Searching a publicly available library of genetic sequences, several teams, including a group of DRASTIC researchers, soon realized that RaTG13 appeared identical to RaBtCoV/4991—the virus from the cave where the miners fell ill in 2012 with what looked like COVID-19.

In July, as questions mounted, Shi Zhengli told Science magazine that her lab had renamed the sample for clarity. But to skeptics, the renaming exercise looked like an effort to hide the sample’s connection to the Mojiang mine."

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#925

Post by bena » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

Jarwain wrote: post #312

lamontcg wrote: post #185

> Wade devoted a full section to the “furin cleavage site,” a distinctive segment of SARS-CoV-2’s genetic code that makes the virus more infectious by allowing it to efficiently enter human cells. > Within the scientific community, one thing leapt off the page. Wade quoted one of the world’s most famous microbiologists, Dr. David Baltimore, saying that he believed the furin cleavage site “was the smoking gun for the…

There are so many "shocking" articles, but here's something I don't get: The closest genetic match is only 3.8% similar. When it only has 29,903 base pairs, that's 1,136 mutations. I'm no bioscientist but my friends who are tell me that's a lot of changes, and that experiments might change a few base pairs or proteins at a time. A lab leak theory doesn't explain how gain of function study resulted in so many mutation…

Humans are 98.8% similar to chimpanzees genetically. That 1.2% is critical. Now viruses have shorter lifecycles, blah blah blah, but 3.8% is a huge gap to overcome.

Also, "circumstantial" doesn't mean weak. It means "pertaining to circumstance". For example, the fact that the virus's origins are in the same area as the lab would be circumstantial evidence that it was created in that lab.

Many circumstances can point to a conclusion. Even the phrase "the smoking gun" which has been bandied about in the discussion of this article, is an example of circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is opposed by direct evidence, which would be eyewitnesses, video/photos of the thing taking place, etc. And eyewitness is actually one of the weakest forms of evidence because memory is faulty. So circumstantial evidence is usually the evidence that convicts a criminal.

To illustrate that, I like to point to my two favorite circumstantial convictions, Hans Reiser and Scott Peterson.

They convicted Scott Peterson based on buying porn, a dye job, and selling cars.

The convicted Hans Reiser of first degree murder of his wife, Nina, despite not even having any direct evidence that she was in fact dead. They only found the body after Reiser himself led them to Nina's body in exchange for pleading guilty to second-degree murder.

A cleaned car, a missing seat, and some books on murder investigations were the evidence they used. Entirely circumstantial. And they deduced that Nina was murdered from those same circumstances.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#926

Post by DebtDeflation » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:45 PM UTC

nraynaud wrote: post #761

DebtDeflation wrote: post #692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Shi Zhengli herself had publicly acknowledged that, until the pandemic, all of her team’s coronavirus research — some involving live SARS-like viruses — had been conducted in less secure BSL-3 and even BSL-2 laboratories." This is important for another reason that may not be immediately obvious. The WIV (BSL-4) is ~8 miles from the Wuhan Market. There's a BSL-2 lab (the CCDC) that's literally just a few hundred yar…

do you have a map? I tried to look for things, but it's really hard with the Chinese datum obfuscation. the best I could do was 3km, but I don't recognize anything from google pictures https://imgur.com/KxOT84W

277.73 meters exactly.

https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/02/16/11472...

And yes, I checked Google Maps and they are very much obscuring this now (they weren't several months ago when I last checked).

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#927

Post by Throwawayaerlei » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:51 PM UTC

fiftyfifty wrote: post #907

bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

I found this News Week article also very interesting and it goes into more detail about the DRASTIC internet group and how they made some of their discoveries: https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke... IMO the most upsetting part about this is people like Shi Zhengli and Peter Daszak being repeatedly caught in outright lies and coverup behavior. These people seemed to have the best of intentions…

It's a tremendously good bit of reporting, especially for a generalist outfit like Newsweek. I didn't notice anything wrong in it or the science of the Vanity Fair article this topic is based on, or contradictions between the two articles.

The DRASTIC team's story is an amazing example of "open source intelligence," for that primarily focused on an anonymous Indian who goes by the handle The Seeker who dug up a bunch of papers and theses for the data scientists and others on the team to assemble into a picture that is more and more convincing about the lab leak hypothesis, although having wet lab experience I'm predisposed to suspect this over the zoonotic transfer hypothesis.

But speaking of predispositions, it's exactly the sort of thing the US intelligence community could have done if most of the government and world scientific establishment hadn't already decided on the zoonotic transfer narrative, which is detailed in the Vanity Fair article.

Also an example of how Silicon Valley censorship can backfire, his first posting on this to Reddit got his account permanently banned, which suggested to him he was on to something. On the other hand Twitter didn't have any problems mentioned in either of these articles hosting the discussions of the DRASTIC team.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#928

Post by Overdr0ne » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:55 PM UTC

Independent of whether the virus was lab-leaked or natural in origin, the conduct of Peter Daszac was completely inappropriate, and he should face consequences.

Spearheading and cosigning the statement: "We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.", when you have specific career and financial interest in that statement being true, is a conflict of interest, is not scientific, and should be addressed publicly. But then privately saying “you, me and him should not sign this statement, so it has some distance from us and therefore doesn’t work in a counterproductive way.” Daszak added, “We’ll then put it out in a way that doesn’t link it back to our collaboration so we maximize an independent voice.” displays clear intent to manipulate public opinion. Unbelievable.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#929

Post by concordDance » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 6:02 PM UTC

shlant wrote: post #707

concordDance wrote: post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason that big tech is corrupted is mass media and activists (here I mean anyone who pushes for their company to do good things rather than just neutral thinhs) within the big tech organization. The (non-rightwing) news orgs had constantly been going on about the evils of Trump and racism and fake news and virus misinformation how very bad it all was, the activists were convinced (because most people don't know…

question: who constitutes the "mass media"?

In the sense I meant? The vast majority of professional news outlets.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#930

Post by CorrectHorseBat » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 6:08 PM UTC

myko wrote: post #874

CorrectHorseBat wrote: post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or all the effort to not call it China Virus/Wuhan flu because that's racist and we don't name viruses after places anymore. Virus variants named after places on the other hand are apparently perfectly fine. So we don't have the Chinese virus but we do have British, Brazilian and Indian variants.

Context matters. The trump administration used those phrases to stir up anti-Chinese and racist sentiments.

Context matters, but consistency too. If it's racist too call it the Wuhan flu (which I can agree with) then the Indian variant is too.