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Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

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Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#911

Post by refurb »

bruce511 wrote: post #890
refurb wrote: post #869

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada's tariff's will be meaningless. Canada's GDP is 32% exports. Of that, 75% goes to the US, or ~25% of Canada's GDP or $1 out of every $4. US exports to Canada are 11% and 16% go to Canada or around 1.7% of US GDP. If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

I think there's a notion that the imposition of tarifs will ultimately affect the amount the country imports. However that stick only kinda-sorta works. As a reference - in the country I live in, exports to the US rose in the year after "liberation day". Because of 2 things; Americans like to buy stuff and tarifs imposed on everyone doesn't cause importers to source elsewhere - it's just business as usual. Take for e…

I think your handwaving away the impact isn't all that convincing and some don't make all that much sense.

> American products are very expensive, and Canada is one of the few markets where they are viable. That's why DJT is so upset with alcohol bans in Canada.

American alcohol is "very expensive" and Canada is the only viable market? That makes no sense. It's not like Canada is a bastion of cheap labor.

DJT is bringing up the alcohol sales most likely because business leaders are bringing it up. The overall impact to US GDP is miniscule.

> There are lots of markets for Canadian goods. And ultimately this whole process is encouraging Canadian producers to explore some of those markets, which in the long run is good for Canada.

If there are lots of markets for Canadian goods then why aren't they selling into them now? And the US is the biggest consumer market in the world (2x bigger than the EU which is the next biggest). Losing the biggest market in the world can't be argued to be "minor".

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#912

Post by vkou »

dominotw wrote: post #749
heresie-dabord wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump and MAGA have destroyed the good relationships and trust that the US had built throughout the world. Canada's Prime Minister wrote [1]: "We have recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship. Our government understood, before many, that America is altering all its trade relationships. Putting tariffs on its closest allies and charging for access to i…

sorry i am too out of the loop what is trumps beef with canada in the first place.

It's the same beef ha Russia has with Ukraine. Despots are incensed when someone next to them gives an example of how to live well without them.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#913

Post by pjc50 »

carefulfungi wrote: post #458
luckyjajj wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically Canada’s trade deficit with the USA is largely due to our oil exports. Remove that the trade is fairly balanced.

Why is this ironic? I see this point a lot but don’t understand the underlying reasoning for why it is a meaningful rebuttal? It’s insane that the US administration (said as an American) doesn’t continue to treasure a values-aligned, peaceful, stable, independent neighbor along a massive unprotected border. But I don’t understand this energy carve-out argument.

MAGA meant the end of values alignment, because it implies subjugation of non Americans. Yes, this includes Canadians even though they're white.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#914

Post by crossroadsguy »

hunglee2 wrote: post #413

The world should've collectively recognised what Liberation Day was and responded together, in lock step, and in kind. Instead, the Europeans caved, Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so), Republic of Korea caved (PM resigned after doing so), India of course caved and so on, shattering any prospect of collective action which might pull the rogue hegemon back into line. Now, the US is simply able to renege or ren…

The worst part is, even now they are saying they will "match". That alone says they are not retaliating, they are registering a protest, maybe just not a meek protest.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#915

Post by mytailorisrich »

eigenspace wrote: post #90
mytailorisrich wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Europe does't buy gas from Russia then that leaves Qatar and the US. Qatar does sell a lot to Europe (hence you'll notice how "friendly" Europe is towards Qatar) but is vulnerable to instability in the straight of Ormuz. The US are making a fortune on gas at the expense of Europe an it's not that the promise to buy gas is meaningless because unenforceable within Europe, it's that it was already happening in practi…

Yes, the EU does rely on buying US gas as an important part of its energy mix. But that is true independent of whatever deal the EU struck with Trump. The EU simply does not have control of who its gas importers buy from (other than sanctions) But this is also why the EU is aggressively pursuing and building up alternatives, including investments in Canada's ability to export LNG, but also buildouts of solar, wind, a…

You are missing the point.

The EU has been massively increasing its imports of gas from the US since the war in Ukraine started.

Promising to buy US gas is not a false promise it is primising to do something that is already reality.

I think you also underestimate the links between government and energy companies when it comes to import policy, even if perhaps there nothing formal at EU level. On the other hand, you are also implicitly acknowledging those links when you mention pursuing alternative suppliers.

The only thing that Europe is "aggresively" doing is failing again and again on strategic issues.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#916

Post by badc0ffee »

THX1137 wrote: post #468
FpUser wrote: post #414

Canada should grow their population to 100-150 millions. this way it will have decent internal market and be more attractive to make trade deal with the rest of the world. Instead it relies on the US which appears to be very bad idea.

That's my view. The "Century Initiative" is being criticized for suggesting that Canada should reach 100 million by 2100. But you'd never believe it, the criticism is that this is too many people, and not many people criticise this "Iniative" as having an unambitious goal.

We tried increasing immigration recently. Most of it went to Ontario and BC, who are incapable of building housing quickly or cheaply enough to accommodate even a modest increase in demand.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#917

Post by crossroadsguy »

Chyzwar wrote: post #490
hunglee2 wrote: post #413

The world should've collectively recognised what Liberation Day was and responded together, in lock step, and in kind. Instead, the Europeans caved, Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so), Republic of Korea caved (PM resigned after doing so), India of course caved and so on, shattering any prospect of collective action which might pull the rogue hegemon back into line. Now, the US is simply able to renege or ren…

That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. EU fast tracked Mercosur and other trade deals. China and Japan is slowly dumping US treasury bills, Canada is in open trade confrontation and is diversifying toward China. Everybody is shifting away from US weapons suppliers. Nobody is willing to help with Iran even on symbolic level.

UK - India (almost; sort of) free trade deal. For a country like India even talking on this topic is like not a different railway track, but going on sea route from a train route - it's that day and night. But I do agree with the OP that the protest/retaliation is scattered and slow and poor.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#918

Post by theplumber »

hunglee2 wrote: post #413

The world should've collectively recognised what Liberation Day was and responded together, in lock step, and in kind. Instead, the Europeans caved, Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so), Republic of Korea caved (PM resigned after doing so), India of course caved and so on, shattering any prospect of collective action which might pull the rogue hegemon back into line. Now, the US is simply able to renege or ren…

The politics are about compromises. China “caved” as well but that’s just one battle “lost”.

In the long term the world will adjust to the new reality. As a simple example take the oil crisis from 1970s. The U.S adjusted and now is the world’s biggest producer.

It will take time but in 30 years I would be surprised if Europe would still buy U.S weapons, let U.S tech services rule EU digital markets and so on.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#919

Post by badc0ffee »

bruce511 wrote: post #890
refurb wrote: post #869

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada's tariff's will be meaningless. Canada's GDP is 32% exports. Of that, 75% goes to the US, or ~25% of Canada's GDP or $1 out of every $4. US exports to Canada are 11% and 16% go to Canada or around 1.7% of US GDP. If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

I think there's a notion that the imposition of tarifs will ultimately affect the amount the country imports. However that stick only kinda-sorta works. As a reference - in the country I live in, exports to the US rose in the year after "liberation day". Because of 2 things; Americans like to buy stuff and tarifs imposed on everyone doesn't cause importers to source elsewhere - it's just business as usual. Take for e…

> About 30% (of that 25% above) is oil & gas etc. That's easilly sellable on the global market.

No, it's not. The bulk of Canada's oil sells at a discount (the WCS price), because most of it can only be bought by the US.

In order to change this, Canada would need to dramatically ramp up pipeline capacity to its coasts, and Canadian domestic politics stand in the way of that more than anything else.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#920

Post by defrost »

badc0ffee wrote: post #919
bruce511 wrote: post #890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a notion that the imposition of tarifs will ultimately affect the amount the country imports. However that stick only kinda-sorta works. As a reference - in the country I live in, exports to the US rose in the year after "liberation day". Because of 2 things; Americans like to buy stuff and tarifs imposed on everyone doesn't cause importers to source elsewhere - it's just business as usual. Take for e…

> About 30% (of that 25% above) is oil & gas etc. That's easilly sellable on the global market. No, it's not. The bulk of Canada's oil sells at a discount (the WCS price), because most of it can only be bought by the US. In order to change this, Canada would need to dramatically ramp up pipeline capacity to its coasts, and Canadian domestic politics stand in the way of that more than anything else.

There's always flogging LNG from coastal floating platforms at (IIRC) global third place by volume (after Australia's Gorgon and Karratha basins):

* https://www.gem.wiki/Ksi_Lisims_FLNG_Terminal

* https://www.ksilisimslng.com/

* Juice media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt6Hmp9ndkI

( note: thanks to a savage sinus blockage my energy terminal capacity-fu is sketchy ATM, feel free to correct and rank global LNG and contrast against oil

edit: Sabine Pass Liquefaction (Gulf of the Americas) is larger than the three I've mentioned: https://www.cheniere.com/about/where-we-work/sabine-pass)

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