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Tesla ending Models S and X production

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#911

Post by array_key_first »

johnfn wrote: post #192
adastra22 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars, maybe. Tesla is valued much larger than the rest of the auto industry combined though. Humanoid robots? Ain’t nobody made the business case for that. It is pure vibes.

Are you seriously saying there is no business case for humanoid robots?

Yes, there's no business case for humanoid robots.

There's a business case for robots that are specialized in specific repetitive actions, and we already see this in manufacturing. But general purpose humanoid robots make no sense.

They're incredibly expensive and, from what we've seen, worse across the board compared to humans. It's cheaper to just hire humans.

The human form is actually pretty shit at most things. But, it can do everything. There's just little purpose for that in a business case. You know what you're doing, so you just need robots to do that, not to try to be humans.

Like, okay, you can get a humanoid robot to be a burger flipper. But that makes no sense. You can, instead, have an automated burger cooking machine. Which do exist! I worked in a restaurant with one 10 years ago.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#912

Post by whaleofatw2022 »

jordanb wrote: post #753
Traster wrote: post #517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're totally wrong on this. Tesla didn't waste the first mover advantage. They benefitted from it whilst it existed, but Electric vehicles turned into a commodity, which was entirely expected and there's no moat. You've explained yourself why it would be untenable for Musk to pursue becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world - if he succeeded in that goal... he would have succeded in shrinking the v…

Tesla's original "secret plan" (published on their website) was to become a commodity car manufacturer faster than electric cars became a commodity. Such that the other manufacturers would find them selling obsolete vehicles and Tesla just becomes the new General Motors. This was the justification for their stock price for quite a few years: "It's logical that Tesla is worth more than all other automakers combined be…

Your take makes sense.

i.e. the GigaPress for frames but it just didnt scale like they hoped.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#913

Post by Fischgericht »

Traster wrote: post #517
sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

I think you're totally wrong on this. Tesla didn't waste the first mover advantage. They benefitted from it whilst it existed, but Electric vehicles turned into a commodity, which was entirely expected and there's no moat. You've explained yourself why it would be untenable for Musk to pursue becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world - if he succeeded in that goal... he would have succeded in shrinking the v…

If you do not want to run a car company, maybe do not... run a car company? Get an ice cream truck.

It absolutely makes no sense to convert a car manufacturer into an AI company. Or a robotics company after you have build CAR FACTORIES around the planet.

If you as a CEO don't like the business you are running for your shareholders, it is time to get a new CEO that does. There still are managers that really like running car companies.

I don't get the feeling that BYD management is bored about the EV business...

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#914

Post by apublicfrog »

Arainach wrote: post #837
usaphp wrote: post #782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And they even suck at making cars these days Aren’t model Y and model 3 considered the best cars in their class by most motor journalists?

No, not by a long shot, unless you define "class" so tightly as to only include those vehicles and no competitors.

What would you define as better? I rent various EVs regularly, and I'm still yet to find something that beats it on performance, range and price. That's all before comfort and features, which again most seem to lack. There are a couple pretty close to Tesla, but nothing that clearly beats it that I've driven.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#915

Post by Fischgericht »

mustyoshi wrote: post #697
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the demand for their robots to be high either tbh, but they're betting on them. It's not going to work.

Hyundai is partnering with Boston Dynamics to deploy 30k robots a year. Amazon is looking to replace 600k employees over the next decade. Why do you believe demand for humanoids isn't high?

From 2028.

And this is about industrial robots, which is much easier to handle than what household robots supposed to be about. Will we ever see a robot that will be able to take grandma to the tub and clean here, to then carry her up the stairs to bed, without killing her? I doubt it.

And finally: Boston Dynamics has actual working products for ages now. They don't need to cheat by using RC toy remote controllers to control their robots. And they are doing serious expectation management. This is completely different league than what Musk is doing.

Also, I don't think it's desirable to have robots taking away human work without first solving the question "and what are we going to do with all the unemployed?".

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#916

Post by apublicfrog »

Deklomalo wrote: post #520
lacker wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they actually worked right now, the demand would be high. Demand is certainly high for Waymos. Even if they worked worse than a Waymo I think the demand would still be very high. But it's hard to tell if (or when) it will work well enough to actually be a real product.

The question is what 'high' means in context of revenue. Uber, the globally available taxi company, is valued 8 times less than tesla. If you are now able to kill all the costs for the taxi driving and reduce the cost for the car also, how much revenue is left? Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. The margin of that company can't be that much more than a company like uber. And uber itself will…

> Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis.

I'm not sure that's true. Self serve checkouts are killing the checkout. Washing machines killed the washing board. Something can be the same price or dearer if it's more convenient.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#917

Post by sonofhans »

sejje wrote: post #696
sonofhans wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is commonly said but trivially falsifiable — a blind human crosses the street better than a Tesla. Eyesight isn’t the thing. Humans have a persistent mental model of the world, and of the physics that drive it. Our eyes only check in every now and then to keep our model up to date. Our ears and sense of touch do a lot of work in walking and driving, too. Trying to narrow it all down to vision is silly.

Deaf people drive. I knew a guy with no arms who drove with his prosthetic hooks. Of course he can feel vibrations and things through his ass, but so could the car if they wanted. Do they use accelerometer data? (I don't know the answer to that) Do they have ABS sensors that can detect wheel lockup/speed status? Because I don't. I believe I can drive a car to the legal standard, remotely, with a good enough camera ar…

You might be able to but again, that has little to do with vision and much to do with your persistent and correct mental model of the world.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#918

Post by anthem2025 »

apublicfrog wrote: post #916
Deklomalo wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is what 'high' means in context of revenue. Uber, the globally available taxi company, is valued 8 times less than tesla. If you are now able to kill all the costs for the taxi driving and reduce the cost for the car also, how much revenue is left? Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. The margin of that company can't be that much more than a company like uber. And uber itself will…

> Robotaxi has to be cheaper than a normal taxi to kill taxis. I'm not sure that's true. Self serve checkouts are killing the checkout. Washing machines killed the washing board. Something can be the same price or dearer if it's more convenient.

[dead]

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#919

Post by m463 »

nkotov wrote: post #858

I know that the Model S platform is old but for me it was always seen as a halo car. I've owned three of them and I really wished they would release a completely redesigned S version.

I think this is where someone says "you're not the target market"

I thought the same thing about the (usable, upgradable) mac pro, but then they came out with the trash can mac pro 2013.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#920

Post by joquarky »

tonyhart7 wrote: post #297
tombert wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad found it extremely amusing that Elon said "we just have to solve the 'AI problem' and we'll have robots doing shopping for us", or something like that. I can't remember the exact verbiage, but that was the gist. The word "just" is doing a lot of work there. Going by that logic: We "just" need to figure out cold fusion to have effectively infinite energy. We "just" need to develop warp drives to travel across t…

I am also certain given time this problem is achievable but the problem is what we expect after that ????? mass unemployment or we just convert all human into robot repairer ???? what the end goal there

> I went through this Ford engine plant about three years ago, when they first opened it.

> There are acres and acres of machines, and here and there you will find a worker standing at a master switchboard, just watching, green and yellow lights blinking off and on, which tell the worker what is happening in the machine.

> One of the management people, with a slightly gleeful tone in his voice said to me, “How are you going to collect union dues from all these machines?”

> And I replied, “You know, that is not what’s bothering me. I’m troubled by the problem of how to sell automobiles to these machines

- Walter Reuther, Nov. 1956 https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars

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