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My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

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Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#911
This has become an impoverished conversation. I have seen this pattern where llm capabilities improve and people who had previously dismissed the technology based on its present capabilities realize they were wrong in their pessimistic assessment of the potential of the tech switch over to the other side and project their own previous bias onto those who continue to object.

The basic structure is this: six months ago, I tried llms and they were trash, but holy cow they have improved so much, now I can use them to avoid tedious that I don't like! Don't be an idiot like my skeptical past self.

Then they accuse everyone who now disagrees with their take on the tech as being an incurious luddite who is blinded by their anti-progress bias.

Personally, as a non-user but close observer of the tech, I never doubted that the tech would improve but there are obvious problems with the tech beyond hallucinations that have to do with human meaning, understanding and power relations that cannot be solved by making the tech better.

My challenge to all of the booster is this: try to articulate your own personal vision of both ai utopia and ai dystopia. I personally find it borderline impossible to even imagine a utopia emerging from genai, but it is extremely easy for me to imagine dystopia, especially given the entities that are controlling the tech and competing to "win" the ai arms race.

For me, the representation of the Chinese state as filtered through western media is already a dystopia. Of course, having not been to China myself and being unable to speak any of their languages, I cannot personally verify the representation. But by competing with the Chinese on ai (and I mean Chinese in the way we define them in the west, which I recognize may be very different from both the actual lived experience in China and their self-conception), we become more like our own negative stereotypes of them. It is essentially a race to disempower ordinary people, remove agency from their lives, hand it over to agents who most certainly do not have the best interest of living humans in mind and call this victory. To "win" the ai war as presently defined would likely be disaster for us all.

There are these ridiculous handwaving things about solving climate change or even human mortality with this tech even though there is no evidence whatsoever that it will do this. Just because the people building it say it will do these things doesn't mean we should trust them.

Imagine if a primatologist tried to tell us that because they have trained chimpanzees to recognize colors and some words better than a three year old, we should now stop investing in education and direct all of out resources into training chimps to do all of our repetitive tasks for us to liberate us from the drudgery of doing anything for ourselves. With enough resources, you would see an explosion in chimp capabilities and this would come directly at the expense of humans, who now have no work to do and just sit on top of a pyramid built by chimp labor. Not only would the things we made be worse than what we could have if we focused on developing our own human capacities instead of chimp capacities, but we would live in fear that the chimps (who also are much stronger than us) will wake up to their plight and rise up against their rulers. Humans would also rapidly lose our own capabilities and become much more like chimps than the humans of today. Sound familiar?

I tend to believe that as it is currently being developed, this tech is far more likely to lead us in a direction like the chimp apocalypse than some post labor utopia.

That doesn't mean that the tech isn't getting better or can't do impressive things. I can hold both things in my head at once. But I am much more concerned with human flourishing and well being than some bored engineers who don't actually like programming (or at least don't like it under the current industrial conditions) feeling like they are being liberated from the tedium of their work. And instead of solving the real the underlying problems that make the work so tedious, we instead compound the problem by having ai generate even more of the exact kind of code that caused the problem i the first place.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#912

I think this article is pretty spot on — it articulates something I’ve come to appreciate about LLM-assisted coding over the past few months. I started out very sceptical. When Claude Code landed, I got completely seduced — borderline addicted, slot machine-style — by what initially felt like a superpower. Then I actually read the code. It was shockingly bad. I swung back hard to my earlier scepticism, probably even…

This is my experience as well.

I’d add that Excel didn’t kill the engineering field. It made them more effective and maybe companies will need less of them. But it also means more startups and smaller shops can make use of an engineer. The change is hard and an equilibrium will be reached.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#913
> Level Setting

> First, we need to get on the same page. If you're [6 months out of date with the technology you think of as overhyped after having observed it for the last 4 years or so], you're [not fairly evaluating it].

Perhaps, but this is an extremely unconvincing approach to the argument right out of the gate - it's basically on the same level as "communism has never been tried".

Especially if you're going to start out by describing your interlocutors as "crazy", rather than positing that an effectively completely new thing now exists that ought to be evaluated differently from Copilot et. al.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#914

My main concern is not even mentioned in this article and there are hardly any comments here addressing it: Privacy / allowing 3rd parties to read and potentially train on your proprietary source code. I've used LLMs to crank out code for tedious things (like generating C-APIs and calling into poorly documented libraries) but I'm not letting them touch my code until I can run it 100% locally offline. Would love to us…

If you're big enough, you pay for on-prem frontier level tools. If not, you can do all right with a good GPU and local model, but it's not the same. And yeah there are plenty of plugins like Continue that support local or on-prem hosted models.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#917
post #428

Hundreds of comments. Some say LLMs are the future. Others say they don't work today and they won't work tomorrow. Videogame speed running has this problem solved. Livestream your 10x engineer LLM usage, a git commit annotated with it's prompt per change. Then everyone will see the result. This doesn't seem like an area of debate. No complicated diagrams required. Just run the experiment and show the result.

Agreed.

The article provides zero measurement, zero examples, zero numbers.

It's pure conjecture with no data or experiment to back it up. Unfortunately conjecture rises to the top on hackernews. A well built study on LLM effectiveness would fall off the front page quickly.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#918
post #800

It's fascinating how over the past year we have had almost daily posts like this one, yet from the outside everything looks exactly the same, isn't that very weird? Why haven't we seen an explosion of new start-ups, products or features? Why do we still see hundreds of bug tickets on every issue tracking page? Have you noticed anything different on any changelog? I invite tptacek, or any other chatbot enthusiast arou…

and builder.ai just filed for bankruptcy after a billion dollar valuation. Timely.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#919

> Meanwhile, software developers spot code fragments seemingly lifted from public repositories on Github and lose their shit. What about the licensing? If you’re a lawyer, I defer. But if you’re a software developer playing this card? Cut me a little slack as I ask you to shove this concern up your ass. No profession has demonstrated more contempt for intellectual property. This kind of guilt-by-association play migh…

> and at the same time believe that copyleft licenses placed by a collective of developers on their work should be respected and GitHub was evil to steal their code.

I think I missed a story? Is GitHub somehow stealing my code if I publish it there under GPL or similar? Or did they steal some specific bit of code in the past?

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#920

You know what's nuts? How so many articles about supporting LLMs and against skeptics are so full of fallacies and logical inconsistencies like strawmans, false dichotomies, appeals to emotion and to authority when they have supposedly almost AGI machines to assist them in their writing. They could at least do a "please take a look at my article and see if I'm commiting any logical fallacies" prompt iteration session…

As I said in another post. The article is pure rhetoric. It provides no actual numbers, measurements, or examples.

It's just "AI did stuff really good for me" as the proof that AI works

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