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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#911
post #777
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

You make the asumption that Q* is a LLM, but I think OpenAI guys know very well that the current LLM architecture cannot achieve AGI. As the name suggests, this things is likely using some form of Q learning algorithm, which makes it closer to the DeepMind models than a transformer. My guess is that they pipe their LLM into some Q learnt net. The LLM may transform a natural language task into some internal representa…

There is a paper about something called Q*. I have no idea if they are connected or if the name matched coincidentially.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04518

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#912
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mathematical logic doesn’t refer to ‘complex word problems with big numbers’. The reason that LLMs struggle (well, are hopeless currently) with mathematics problems is not because it involves arithmetic (although this is already enough of a struggle) but because it requires a conceptual understanding of the ideas rather than just being about manipulating language — a lot of the goings-on are hidden in the semantic wo…

No. LLMs are great at statistical thinking but terrible at discrete thinking. Logic is discrete. "Concepts" is a distraction.

What is your distinction between ‘statistical’ and ‘discrete’? And what are you responding ‘no’ to?

Logic in the everyday sense (that is, propositional or something like first-order logic) is indeed ‘discrete’ in a certain sense since it is governed by very simple rules and is by definition a formal language. But ‘mathematical logic’ is a completely different thing. I don’t think it’s discrete in the sense you are imagining. It’s much more akin to a mixture of formal derivations massively guided and driven by philosophical and creative — you might say ‘statistical’ — hunches and intuition.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#913

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mathematical logic doesn’t refer to ‘complex word problems with big numbers’. The reason that LLMs struggle (well, are hopeless currently) with mathematics problems is not because it involves arithmetic (although this is already enough of a struggle) but because it requires a conceptual understanding of the ideas rather than just being about manipulating language — a lot of the goings-on are hidden in the semantic wo…

> because it requires a conceptual understanding of the ideas rather than just being about manipulating language Yes, that's exactly the point I was trying to make. I just used the example of "complex word problems with big numbers" to differentiate from just normal mathematical statements that any programming language (i.e. deterministic algorithm) can execute.

It wasn’t my intention to give a snarky correction; I just wanted to emphasise that most of what mathematicians call mathematics has very little to do with numbers (as we would usually understand them). Talking about ‘word problems’ and ‘big numbers’ gives the wrong idea about what current LLMs struggle with. Even if they do struggle with these, it is still not sufficient when it gains the ability to be able to say that it can now do mathematics.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#914
post #316

I was talking to my (12 year old) son about parts of math he finds boring. He said that he thinks absolute value is absurdly easy and extremely boring. I asked him if there was anything that might make it more interesting, he said "maybe complex numbers". So I asked him "what would the absolute value of i+1 be?" he thinks for a little bit and says "square root of 2" and I ask him "what about the absolute value of 2i…

Your son is a goddamn genius.

Alternatively, he watches youtube videos about math, and if you’re a young math geek what’s cooler than “here’s a type of number they won’t teach you until the really advanced classes”

Not to dismiss this kid at all, I love that there are channels like 3Blue1Brown to share math to people in a way that really connects with them and builds intuition.

When I was a student you basically just had your math teacher and textbooks to learn from, which meant if you weren’t on the same page as them you’d get left behind. If you went to the library, most math books assume you’re familiar with the language of mathematics, so it can be tough to learn for that alone. I bet a lot of innumeracy is due to that style of teaching, often “I just don’t get math” is “I missed learning this connection and the class just moved on”.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#915

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by that?

Altman and those at openai appear to have an obsession with creating fear and panic, almost as if they were projecting schizophrenia on others.

I actually find that while the headlines and the tweets sound quite alarming, they are very much in contrast with what Altman and others have to say in video/audio interviews and the calm manner in which they talk about the future. They also seem to overhype the technology in writing but in person speak noticeably more modestly about the state of the art (and even the future). [0] But that’s just my impression. I’ve seen others say they find him disingenuous and manipulative. Maybe I’m not such a good judge of character.

[0] Altman: “maybe we never build AGI, but…”, in a recent podcast interview.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#916
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

Everything you said about LLMs being "terrible at X" is true of the current generation of LLM architectures. From the sound of it, this Q* model has a fundamentally different architecture, which will almost certainly make some of those issues not terrible any more. Most likely, the Q* design is the very similar to the one suggested recently by one of the Google AI teams: doing a tree search instead of greedy next tok…

> We all thought Chess was impossible for computers until it wasn't.

I don't know who 'we' is but Chess was a program for computers before computers powerful enough existed with the hardware represented by people computing the next move.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turochamp

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#917
post #316

I was talking to my (12 year old) son about parts of math he finds boring. He said that he thinks absolute value is absurdly easy and extremely boring. I asked him if there was anything that might make it more interesting, he said "maybe complex numbers". So I asked him "what would the absolute value of i+1 be?" he thinks for a little bit and says "square root of 2" and I ask him "what about the absolute value of 2i…

Your 12 year old is the next Einstein.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#918

Remember, about a month ago Sam posted a comment along the lines of "AI will be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to very strange outcomes". The board was likely spooked by the recent breakthroughs (which were most likely achieved by combining transformers with another approach), and hit the panic button. Anything capable of "superhuman persuasion",…

We've built the web into a giant Skinner box. I find the claim dubious, but this is the sort of thing we ought to find at the forefront of our technology. It's where we've been going for a long time now.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#919
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

Your comment is regarding LLMs, but Q* may not refer to an LLM. As such, our intuition about the failure of LLM's may not apply. The name Q* likely refers to a deep reinforcement learning based model.

To comment, in my personal experience, reinforcement learning agents learn in a more relatable human way than traditional ml, which act like stupid aliens. RL Agents try something a bunch of times, mess up, and tweak their strategy. After some extreme level of experience, they can make wider strategic decisions that are a little less myopic. RL agents can take in their own output, as their actions modify the environment. RL Agents also modify the environment during training, (which I think you will agree with me is important if you're trying to learn the influence of your own actions as a basic concept). LLM's, and traditional ml in general, are never trained in a loop on their own output. But in DRL, this is normal.

So if RL is so great and superior to traditional ml why is RL not used for everything? Well the full time horizon that can be taken into consideration in a DRL Agent is very limited, often a handful of frames, or distilled frame predictions. That prevents them from learning things like math. Traditionally RL bots have been only used for things like robotic locomotion, chess, go. Short term decision making that is made given one or some frames of data. I don't even think any RL bots have learned how to read english yet lol.

For me, as a human, my frame predictions exist on the scale of days, months, and years. To learn math I've had to sit and do nothing for many hours, and days at a time, consuming my own output. For a classical RL bot, math is out of the question.

But, my physical actions, for ambulation, manipulation, and balance, are made for me by specialized high speed neural circuits that operate on short time horizons, taking in my high level intentions, and all the muscle positions, activation, sensor data, etc. Physical movement is obfuscated from me almost in entirety. (RL has so far been good at tasks like this.)

With a longer frame horizon, that predicts frames far into the future, RL can be able to make long term decisions. It would likely take a lifetime to train. So you see now why math has not been accomplished by RL yet, but I don't think the faculty would be impossible to build into an ml architecture.

An RL bot that does math would likely spin on its own output for many many frames, until deciding that it is done, much like a person.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#920

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I wonder, as a computer scientist: If you want to solve grade school math problems, why not use an 'add' instruction? It's been around since the 50s, runs a billion times faster than an LLM, every assembly-language programmer knows how to use it, every high-level language has a one-token equivalent, and doesn't hallucinate answers (other than integer overflow). We also know how to solve complex reasoning chains…

What you’re proposing is equivalent to training a monkey (or a child for that matter) to punch buttons that correspond to the symbols it sees without actually teaching it what any of the symbols mean.

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