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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#911

Post by RhodesianHunter »

DarmokJalad1701 wrote: post #900
MR4D wrote: post #896

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it does, and in a big way. Let me give a simple example using some round numbers just to show the concept. Plug and play any numbers you want to see how the outcome changes... Let’s say you have a million dollars in March of 2000, you just retired, and you need to pull out $100,000 to live on. So, in April, you take out $100,000 and now you have $900,000. So you ended up taking out 10% of your principal. How…

10% is not really a safe withdrawal rate though.

Did you black out during their second sentence?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#912

Post by Klinky »

MR4D wrote: post #896
bytematic wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't seem to understand that you don't pull all your retirement out at once, so the market going up or down doesn't really affect that

Actually it does, and in a big way. Let me give a simple example using some round numbers just to show the concept. Plug and play any numbers you want to see how the outcome changes... Let’s say you have a million dollars in March of 2000, you just retired, and you need to pull out $100,000 to live on. So, in April, you take out $100,000 and now you have $900,000. So you ended up taking out 10% of your principal. How…

In this scenario:

- This person likely could have drawn social security income, given that it's 2000 and SSI is not bankrupt.

- Ideally you have the funds you need to retire in the principal alone, and are only relying on very modest growth rate to fight inflation once you're actually withdrawing from it.

- You shouldn't be withdrawing retirement funds from an S&P 500 index fund investment. The funds should have been in a retirement income-focused fund or low-risk bonds, which would have helped maintain principal even in down years.

- Ideally your house is paid off, so you're not paying down a mortgage, and have significant equity in your home to draw from as a last resort.

I think a more realistic scenario is someone in their mid-50s who thought the numbers were working out in their favor to retire early, only for the market to crash, and now that is no longer looking like an option.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#913

Post by gberger »

bob1029 wrote: post #722
jacques_chester wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also ensures you can come back up after an unexpected shutdown.

This is the best reason. Knowing your business systems will simply come back with the power, and having that tested on a daily basis will quickly put everyone at ease.

Is this what is called chaos engineering?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#914

Post by RhodesianHunter »

cletus wrote: post #541
beambot wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US fertility rate is approx. 1.8, well below population sustainability. If it weren't for immigration (a political policy question), the US would have negative population growth too.

Not too be too glib but this reminds me of one of my pet truisms: "If things were different, then things would be different." Japan is way more insular than the US [1]. You can theorize about what might happen if we didn't have net immigration but it's largely irrelevant because we do. [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/24/world/insular-japan-needs...

It isn't irrelevant because it's a constant battle and has been significantly curtailed under the current administration.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#915

Post by songzme »

The one takeaway I learned from 2007 is to buy puts when I feel like there is going to be a recession. It may just give me enough money to last a year or two if I lose my job.

Starting last week, I bought a put (just 1) in Chipotle (No particular reason, I just picked a random one) for 2000.

Its the one bet I hope I lose money on, but so far my position (2k investment) have grown to over 6k. (300% increase).

Its sad money because when the market goes down, my RSUs are dropping significantly more. The put are there to make sure if I lose my job and my RSUs, my put position will generate enough profits to last me 2 years without work. I only need 24k to get by / year.

Just wanted to put this out there in case someone else out there has alot of RSUs that are stuck and wanted to buy some positions to make some money in case of a recession.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#916

Post by kortilla »

senordevnyc wrote: post #905
kortilla wrote: post #799

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s still not optimism because it doesn’t imply direction. A low implied volatility just means lower expectation of big moves in either direction . A stock that has gone up like a rocket ship will have a high implied volatility despite no crashes or expectations of declines.

It’s not optimism that stocks will only go up, but it’s optimism that they won’t suddenly go up or down by too much, which is generally to be avoided unless you’re a trader.

Right, but “not go up too much” isn’t really the normal definition of optimism when it comes to the market. If it was, an even lower implied volatility on a flat market would be irrational exuberance!

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#917

Post by RhodesianHunter »

generatorguy wrote: post #789
arcticbull wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason their numbers are lower than elsewhere is the widespread testing is catching the low-grade infections, the asymptomatic and the so on. Those cases are not reflected in, for instance, US numbers as there hasn't been any wide-scale testing. In a huge quantity of people you wind up with sniffles, a cough or mild flu-like symptoms. They don't go in, they don't get tested, so they're left out of the denominator…

I haven’t read anything that said sniffles or runny nose was a symptom. I have a runny nose and was told by the ER on the phone in British Columbia not to worry unless I get a fever.

It is a possible symptom, but listed as "rare".

Fever and a cough (usually dry) are the most common symptoms.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#918

Post by malandrew »

tomp wrote: post #813
malandrew wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm wondering if what 2% dies matters. This disease is mostly going to kill people past their prime working years. There are going to be tons of sociological changes. Just speculating here: - Social security could have it's date of insolvency extended. It's currently predicted to be insolvent by 2037. Most pension programs in the world will be relieved of pressure if many of those over 60 years of age die. Many state…

> Except for what the government steals via a death tax Good comment overall but this is just unnecessary. I'm guessing you prefer the heirs stealing via birthchance tax? Either way, zero net change in spending (the governments also spend).

> heirs stealing via birthchance tax

what does this even mean? You can't steal what is given to you.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#919

Post by RhodesianHunter »

arbuge wrote: post #732
aazaa wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget the part where the Fed swoops in, making a murky situation even murkier with market manipulation. Expect a massive rally when the Fed announces QE4. Buy the rally at your own risk. The largest DJIA rally in history (15.34%) occurred in the middle of the Great Depression in 1933. Second place was yet another Depression-era rally of double digits. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes…

> Only consider buying stocks when nobody but nobody thinks it's a good idea. When "buy the dip" has utterly left the popular vocabulary. When dividends + valuations are at bargain-basement levels. I would say the above is definitely true for certain sectors of the market now. Energy (oil & gas) comes to mind. Perhaps banks and emerging markets too. The broad market, on the other hand, isn't even down 20% yet.

I'm not sure why anyone would buy oil and gas given the way the world is changing but that's just me.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#920

Post by cameronh90 »

linkregister wrote: post #858
narner90 wrote: post #698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of trading is indeed done by minimally supervised computers, i.e. a human only looks at the computer if alarm bells ring. Source: was one of those humans

How often are the models that drive algorithmic trading updated?

The pipeline for a given piece of research to get into production tends to be several months. Therefore, a small firm with only a few researchers might update between once and a few times a month, and a larger company it might be several times a week. It's rare to update the model more than once a day, since it'll normally be updated outside trading hours.
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