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Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

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Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#911
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthcare tech has been the "next big area" for the past 40 years. Maybe this time is different, but historically it never pans out. Healthcare's an extremely regulated, extremely change-averse area of the economy where entrenched insiders will always close ranks to protect their own.

I wouldn't be so sure. My millionaire uncle built his fortune on medical software, and I have a friend who works in the field with a degree just for it (medical technologies).

I’d love to learn more about your uncle’s story! Can you provide any additional details? What does the software do?

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#912
post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's the best way to make money, but this may be the most important topic for our near future as a species . Emphasis: not just civilization(s) but species as a whole, as in rewiring perception, brain functions, social life, freedom of thought. Here's my conundrum: we could design a transparent and 100% user-controlled communication network — basically some open-sourced Twitter / Facebook / Whatsapp / I…

Think you nailed it - the most important problem is overcoming the social friction that enables companies to centralize control of entire industries for no reason other than - they got to it first. We need ways for consumers to organize en-masse to switch services - since trickling out one by one has such a disadvantage ("all my friends use X..."). My hope there, if any, lies in someone developing a mature incentiviz…

Very interesting comment. It took me time to unwrap it all, there are lots of great insights.

About "incentives", you might wanna check my other reply to IAmEveryone in this thread[1].

Basically the idea is that we probably should try to win not against but with other platforms, in a way that creates synergies for everyone.

That's how open-source thrives the most, that's how the best contracts are negociated, that's how capitalism works exponentially the best if we seek sustainability. IMHO. And it's damn more clever and efficient —if you can pull it off!; which is no small feat, but definitely possible. You probably need a master plan, a grand strategy within which fit several concurrent paths in subsequent steps, each with a strategy. This to address multiple dimensions / domains of the problem (think: UX/selling it to users; economics/sustainability, technical realization and maintenance, politics/PR/legal framework/compliance; competition/cooperation/synergies/open-source; etc.)

I've long thought about it and it's truly at that level, like a board is essentially the "meta" of a corporation, or like the IETF is the "meta" of internet, that this battle is fought. And it's not so much a battle against other actors —which, if you think about it, rose to prominence of their own virtue, be it National Post offices or Disney or internet or Google or Twitter, Insta, Black Mirror-esque dystopian companies and projects. It's more of a battle for communication, for social sanity, for whatever it is you seek. I.e., from this reality (the one we're in), how to best move the needle towards that ideal (the one you're seeking, if possible in your lifetime thus actionable). So we take what happened, and wasn't 'forced' on anyone, and we try to implement the 'why' it should move somewhere next. We open the gates wide towards this 'next'.

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Crypto, definitely part of it, but I mean the blockchain, the technology. I truly think that its "killer-app" will firmly stand in a source of value (like most technologies emerge historically); my intuition is that a totally "free" social network is one such killer-app, and thus not implementing any shape or form of "currency". That is a blockchain worth having, for humanity, for civilization, like internet, browsers, encryption, etc.

The blockchain paradigm is the perfect candidate for a secured repository of personal data, with various rules (contracts, algorithms, etc) for read/writability by other personal blockchains, other users. When you aggregate the whole, you obtain a massive collection of billions of personal blockchains; and that is the "network" of blockchains, the neutral communication space. Upon which we build "pipes" between us as we see fit — maybe I'll let you see my "friends" posts, but not my "private" documents (which my wife however can read because we share some stuff), and I also have a "work" collection of visibility to allow colleagues' blockchains to see such content; up to a "public" level which is essentially twitter / insta etc. The one-to-one peer-to-peer unitary link is basically chat / email.

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About distributed, and general implementation.

When you go back to first principles, a blockchain's content is plain text, like an http request/response, or a chat message, an email, a twit... It's just the simplest CRUD implementation — yes, including delete, if you consider that each personal blockchain is controlled by their user, who has the keys and control of their personal/local network, and thus can edit their chain. It's the whole point of control at a granular level, I can delete my own files if I so wish, I am root.

A connection to another blockchain is merely a right that their public key is OK to do something to some blocks; for instance we allow "friends" (a mere array of public keys) to "read" such and such posts. you may set expiry, you may allow deeper than n=1 ("friends of friends of friends..."; public is just about n=3.6 on average iirc).

Corporations, any other party, fit in this landscape as any other actor: "hello, can I read this data?", with the 'server' (my blockchain) having authority by my rules to allow/deny. In terms of UX, it needs not be much more complicated than permissions on a phone, ideally with a few nice smart rules to ease the cognitive effort.

The beauty of such an implementation, imho, is that any service, public or private, whatever its intent or set of rules, can emerge freely, just like internet websites. Each actor, each block of content is merely a proposition to other parties. If accepted, it can grow massively, virally, without any gatekeeping nor impediment towards the free flow — it's peer-to-peer at the lowest level. Like bittorrent, conceptually.

And it needs not be much more complicated for the user than a "my own chat / twitter / blog / email / facebook / insta app" (a simple http server, under the hood, which implements your preferences of visibility, presentation, etc.)

Such services could be default open-source modules, mere options for the user to install locally and use among many such free or paid software; or for-profit service/cloud actors who offer some value in the exchange of giving them 'read' rights on some of your data. Make it an auto-renew daily contract (or whatever term) and you've got revokability.

There is much more to say, but that's what I'd suggest experimenting with.

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Edit: a word on scaling

Approaching human communication in a holistic "top-down" way tends to promote a fallacy in perception: it's not because there are 3.456 gazillion emails or chat messages or twits each day that each and everyone one of us needs or reads that many.

At an organic level, you only need to send whatever content you produce, and receive whatever content you read. It's between 0 and 100 emails, however much you chat, it's not that much for your "node" (collection of computing power in your devices) to serve as http packets.

Those who serve massively more content (influencers, corporations, marketers, etc) generally have the material and financial means to upgrade their infrastructure to meet the needs — rent cloud capacity. The fundamentally public nature of viral content makes it perfectly suited to remain in the cloud-caching space (the CloudFlares and AWS of this world), it's also often for-profit at the end of the day, whether as dollars in sales or indirectly dollars as reputation.

So I think such a peer-to-peer "master" neutral network basically self-hosted to a large degree can work in terms of resources, the economics of idling CPU on consumer devices leave much, much room to grow before we even have to consider selling $100 "power packs" to plug into your residential modem for extra uupmh.

That's my vision, and it's basically what Satoshi did but implemented not for currency but rather for communication.

In that world, hyperscalers becomes either resource providers for content distribution (AWS, ideally 'transparent' ISPs, etc) or 'organizers of information'.

Insta doesn't host the content anymore, it merely reads it from "adequately scaled servers" like my blockchain for my friends or Dwayne Johnson's AWS instance for his fans; so Instagram as a company becomes this pure information dealer, providing customer insight to marketers based on what data it has been allowed to obtain from users.

It hopefully creates a situation where they're incentivized to "play it fair" and offer some real value to users in exchange of their information. And I think that's one aspect of this we mostly like, having relevant recommendations, valuable suggestions, very refined services for all our stuff — because we have a lot of stuff and it's great when a cool company does a great job, we very much want to pay for that and we're willing to share with them, to help them help us.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21330417

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#913
post #835

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazing reply. Thank you. I see Dr Chua is dropping a new text in December. I'll see what I can learn by then and if it sticks I'll support with a purchase

Don’t bother. I work at a lab where some of the largest and best memristor based crossbars have been developed, and I can tell you it’s almost all hype at this point. There are significant problems with memristive circuits, and very little advantage over something a lot more mature such as NOR flash crossbars (we work on both). There are many competing device technologies to use for analog computation, it’s far from…

Ah bummer! I'll just keep an eye on it then. Anolog computation is where my interest is. I have a personal project where I have a subproblem of trying to use analog hardware to create a digital "impression" for processing. Terrible description, sorry

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#914

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a more scientific approach, the IPCC[1] models show we could see mass migrations between 200M and 1.5B due to climate change before the end of the century. Not a total collapse, but the collapse of a dozen of countries due to unsustainable heat and drought. [1] https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php%3Fi...

Yes, this is much more accurate of our best predictions. Bjørn Lomborg says[1] by the end of the century, climate change left unchecked will only lower the global GDP by a 2-4 percentage points of what it would have otherwise grown to , which is going to be 300-1000% higher than today. So basically, best case scenario 980% GDP growth, worst case 288% GDP growth. This shows climate change is a problem, but it's too sl…

Bjørn Lomborg's education is in political science and statistics. His analyses, while occasionally thought-provoking, are opposed by the vast majority of actual working climate scientists. He has gotten a lot of attention by simply being a climate contrarian.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#915
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably Kaggle competitions

Read "Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial," by D.S. Sivia for an excellent introduction to experimental design for scientists. This gives you a quantitative approach to the design of experiments, with tools to properly evaluate your results.

I would also recommend the bayesian statistics book with the dogs on the cover. Can't remember its name off hand, but got handed a copy. Its a great foundation.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#916

Cooperatives. The economy needs to shift away from giant companies with pay ratios of a thousand to one between CEOs and average employees and employees need control over their workplace to move to the next stage of capitalism. Make it easier for collectives to start up businesses that aren't purely focused on profit and instead focused on employees taking ownership of their work. It may not be the biggest profit pos…

Is it possible to have a independent-contractor coop? We are looking to convert into a coop and have run into this legal grey area of contractor vs employee. It looks like coops are only for employees.

I think it depends on what you mean by coop. I will assume that you mean that all people doing work on behalf of the coop have an ownership stake and somehow share in decision making.

Assuming you're organized as an LLC, I think the key is whether you're taxed as a partnership or as a corporation. If you're taxed as a partnership I am certain that you have to pay any owner as a "guaranteed payment" or something like that, I couldn't pay myself on a W2 when I organized it that way. You have to send a form to each owner showing their share of the profits and losses, guaranteed payments (i.e. salary), and then instead of the LLC paying taxes at all, every owner pays a share individually.

If you're taxed as a corporation, I believe you can just pay yourself with W2's and the company has to pay taxes separately.

Of course, you can always democratize decision making and share profits as bonuses even if it's a sole proprietorship with regular employees. Either trust based or by contract or operating agreement.

I think the main logic people use when deciding how to be taxed is that if you share profits and losses directly on taxes, all the owners can theoretically write off losses and other things business related. But it then makes everyone's personal taxes harder, so it's kind of a choose-your-poison situation.

I've found the trickiest bit is basically deciding how to decide. Does everyone get an equal vote? Do people need to "buy in"? Work there a year before they get voting rights? Do people get more from a contract if they find the lead and are the project manager for that customer? How do they entice other contractors on the team to help?

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#917

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Without massive progress in the next decade, civilization will probably collapse by 2035.” This is deathcult type rhetoric which has no scientific basis whatsoever.

I just wish there would be a way to hold these doomsday preachers responsible. In the end they will all shrugg it of with that smirk of 'oh back then we didn't know better'.

I am glad they took the responsibility in the 1850-1870 to not burn/chop down most of the forest in Norway. A lot of the places still don’t have trees because of wind and to much water in the ground.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#918
post #114

I see a huge trend coming in “DIY Medicine”. Doctors, insurers, and the FDA are way too expensive for mere gatekeeping, and technology is developing new treatments and dropping equipment costs an order of magnitude faster than they can respond. For example, I can buy all of the equipment necessary for a PRP injection for less than the cost of a single treatment, and the doctor that does it knows no more about how to…

I think you hit the nail right on the head. Gartner's recent post on technology trends for 2020 points out democratization of tech and business expertise. More domains like medicine and law will follow.

Gartner's Top 10 Trends of 2020: https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartner-top-10-st...

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#920
post #543

Yourself. One of the most complex areas, having lots of users, that need to be fixed, is human beings. Spend all your time to know who you are, why you are like that, and change this world starting from the most promising thing it has on it: you. In the meantime, try to carry out activities that you like (ride your bike, walk alone or with real people). Do it disconnected from any device or social network. Do things…

Hey. I am 22 (from India), suffering from depression and with zero skills which can get me a job. I have wasted last 4-5 years without doing anything or learning anything. All i do is sleep, laying on bed and daydream through out the day. Can you tell me how should i go about improving my life?

Hi, sorry for the delay. No. I can't tell you how to improve your life. But if you like to play chess with me (a beginner), grab my contact from the bio. I'll be there.
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