Global warming has accelerated significantly • Hacker News Board

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#901

Post by timr » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 5:10 AM UTC

bjourne wrote: post #894

timr wrote: post #868

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Setting aside the names of the authors, this is a very bad paper. They take temperature data sets, "adjust" [1] them by attempting to remove the biggest recent factors (volcanism, solar and el nino cycles) affecting temperatures , then do a piece-wise regression analysis to look at trends in 10-year chunks. This is just bad methodology, akin to what a junior graduate student with a failing thesis might do to find sig…

Your summary of the article is wrong. The authors model temperature using time series over solar irradiance, volcanic activity, and southern oscillation. They calibrate that model using time series over global surface temperatures. This allows them to isolate and remove each of the three listed confounding factors. The resulting time series fits a super-linear curve -> accelerating global warming.

> Your summary of the article is wrong. The authors model temperature using time series over solar irradiance, volcanic activity, and southern oscillation. They calibrate that model using time series over global surface temperatures. This allows them to isolate and remove each of the three listed confounding factors.

No, it isn’t. You’re just rephrasing what I said with more words: they attempted to adjust for three of the biggest factors that affect temperature, then did a piecewise regression to estimate a 10-year window.

You can’t do it in a statistically valid way. Full stop. The authors admit this, but want you to ignore it.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#902

Post by refurb » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #890

refurb wrote: post #888

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has always been the big issue I have with the conclusions draw in climate publications. I encourage anyone with strong opinion on climate change to do a deep dive on the temperature analysis. The best example I can think of is the "global warming hiatus" that was discussed in depth in the top climate journals in the mid-2010s. Nature Climate Change even devoted an entire month to it.[1] 5 years later publication…

> And as you said, when you dive into the paper, you realize that temperature measures are not objective at all. I don't know if I'd go that far. The measurements are as objective as they can be given the limits of technology and time, but what we do with the datasets afterward is usually filled with subjective decisions. In the worst cases, you get motivated actors doing statistically invalid analysis to reach a pre…

I think research ranges from this paper to ones more rigorous, but the problem of "adjustments" is consistent.

And the issue is not so much the research is being done, but rather how it's reported on. Scientists know the limits of rigor in climate science, but the public doesn't. So catastrophic predictions are viewed by the public as a sure thing, versus one particular prediction with wide error bares.

> This happens in every field of science, but it's often worse in fields that touch politics.

Indeed. Nobody plays fast and lose with papers on the structure of some random enzyme for political purposes.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#903

Post by Nevermark » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 5:37 AM UTC

sleet_spotter wrote: post #193

tarr11 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It says this in bold red at the top - "This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal." I am not a climate scientist - how should I think about this statement? Normally I am looking for some statement that shows a document has been vetted.

Peer review is still very relevant in climate science. But given it is from well-respected authors, I am more inclined to trust the results at this stage.

There is no need for "trust".

There is no benefit in non-expert readers inserting their own subjectivity into an already complex topic. Even for themselves.

What we know: It is an interesting paper. It is going to get attention.

Good to be aware. It is also good to reserve judgement while the community evaluates the results.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#904

Post by Nevermark » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 5:55 AM UTC

Findecanor wrote: post #304

ecshafer wrote: post #134

The issue with any significant steps to curbing the climate or environmental impacts with laws or treaties is always: But the economy. It creates an incentive where someone doesn't follow the laws, burn everything they can to accelerate their economy, and take industry from other countries. My proposal is thus: create a supranational treaty organization with a EPA like authority(or whatever the European equivalent is…

We have needed tariffs for many years now. The EU has some tariffs on imports, but they are only used to level the playing field for companies in EU countries with emission rules against companies in countries without, and only in some select industries. They need to apply overall, on all goods and services. And emission limits need to be progressive over time, with a limit for each year, not just "x% at year 2030".

Cap and trade is so much more efficient. It allocates fossil fuels to the places where replacing it would be most expensive, without central planning.

And slowly raising the price on a smooth forward looking schedule lets businesses make rational choices about budgeting for that or for migrating to greener options.

Companies are excellent at adapting to acheive their best interests, to any predictable continuous (as apposed to discontinuous) economic change. Especially when it is a market based change, as that creates a level playing field.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#905

Post by frm88 » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

jpadkins wrote: post #692

sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

> Oh and roughly 65M of sea level rise as the planet shifts to a snow/ice-free mode 65M seems a lot bigger than the 3.6mm/year rise we are seeing today (with +1.5C in warming already happening). Where did you read that we will get 65M of sea level rise with 1.5-2.5C more warming?

It's the extreme scenario with all the earth ice melted, even Antarctica. Depending on the model chosen and acceleration this could happen between 2243 and 21861. http://sealevelrise.se/en/earth_slr65.html.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#906

Post by Nevermark » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

JuniperMesos wrote: post #711

ComputerGuru wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one thinks only corporations have to sacrifice; they do think that it's folly to ask individual members of society, who on average contribute the smallest overall proportion to global warming, to sacrifice while corporations continue to squander away our natural resources. And the pareto principle agrees.

Yeah but there's a lot of individual members of society, and nearly all of them benefit from supply chains that emit CO2 and would have to stop doing so in order to not emit the CO2. If gasoline in the US cost $20/gallon this would reduce the amount of CO2 emissions because suddenly driving a gasoline-powered car is much more expensive for everyone. This would make a lot of ordinary Americans very upset.

All everyone needs to know is gas prices will slowly increase to $20, and change starts happening immediately. Nobody actually needs to be stuck with a $20/gallon charge.

As you note, sudden discontinuous changes just create their own pushback, which works against the change.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#907

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 6:06 AM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #260

ecshafer wrote: post #134

The issue with any significant steps to curbing the climate or environmental impacts with laws or treaties is always: But the economy. It creates an incentive where someone doesn't follow the laws, burn everything they can to accelerate their economy, and take industry from other countries. My proposal is thus: create a supranational treaty organization with a EPA like authority(or whatever the European equivalent is…

There is a Nobel memorial prize winning plan to do something like this in a more elegant, voluntary fashion. Nordhaus' Climate Club. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Faer.15000001 It's essentially a carbon tax on local production and a corresponding carbon tariff on imports. Countries that already have a carbon tax or equivalent don't get tariffed. IOW, they're part of the club. Usually a carbon rebate is…

[deleted]

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#908

Post by frm88 » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 6:29 AM UTC

jpadkins wrote: post #687

lambdaone wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazing hyperbole, and a deflection from the real issues. You can fight against wrongdoing without actually advocating people being killed. Right now, climate change is an undeniable fact, its causes well-known, and the evidence for it now part of everyday life. If anything, its effects have been underestimated to date, and 'non-believers' in it are either fools or acting based on morally repugnant principles.

> the evidence for it now part of everyday life I know of no evidence of global warming affecting my everyday life, nor anyone I know. I am open-minded, please show me what I should be looking at to see evidence of global warming in my everyday life. I live in Western PA, USA if that helps.

Ask and you shall receive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Pennsylvania From rise of the Delaware river to flooding events.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#909

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 6:52 AM UTC

sph wrote: post #756

nancyminusone wrote: post #458

Don't kid yourself - we closed this one with "Won't Fix" a while ago. "But what about ?" No. Full stop. We're not going to do it, and we're not even going to apologize for it either. All we can do now is prepare, not that I've seen a lot on this front either.

Worse, even if we’re going to do it, the next idiot in power is going to roll it back and declare to big fanfare and applause that coal is back. You can’t change the world with plans that last no longer than a presidential term.

[deleted]

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#910

Post by sph » Sat, Mar 07, 2026, 7:09 AM UTC

apublicfrog wrote: post #764

sph wrote: post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worse, even if we’re going to do it, the next idiot in power is going to roll it back and declare to big fanfare and applause that coal is back. You can’t change the world with plans that last no longer than a presidential term.

Thankfully most of the world ignores America and does their own thing.

Do you truly believe that the rest of political world has longer foresight than their electoral terms? Often they just promise something that they immediately discard as soon as they get in. The problem is inherent in representative democracy.